Old crop canola, direction?

[boarderbloke]

Seeing this is the marketing area!(turn sarcasm off) Anyone care to dicuss the marketing of remaining old crop canola stocks? I have a couple cars yet, and I imagine some others here would also have some bushels too.
Was very pleased to see July close over the $388 level, if momentom can continue, $398 would be next resistance/support. Here's a chart, if you scroll down under that chart past Contract Specs, you'll see some technical analysis. What do marketers here think, higher, lower, or more sideways?
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/70

[mbratrud]

challange will be to get past Mar 31 USDA report seeding intentions.

[boarderbloke]

mbratrud, here are a variety of U.S. planting estimates from 23 different analysts. Doesn't look like a big increase over last year on the bean side.

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?&page=story&id=149146

[mbratrud]

USDA has surprised us before

[cottonpicken]

A greater help would be for the usdx to break
down.

Funny how this little rally happened just after
obamanation just spent a boatload of money.

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXM0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

Boarder,you may prefer barcharts.Lots and lots of
tools available.

[cottonpicken]

A greater help would be for the usdx to break
down.

Funny how this little rally happened just after
obamanation just spent a boatload of money.

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXM0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

Boarder,you may prefer barcharts.Lots and lots of
tools available.

[cottonpicken]

Example

http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=RSK0

[boarderbloke]

cottonpicken, are you suggesting in your first line, that higher prices for canola in the futures/and farm gate would be more acheivable if the USD droped in value thus increasing bean/soyoil and crude prices even though that would mean that the CAN$ would also rise?

More simply, your thinking canola would rise more so, if the USD droped, rather that the CAN$ ?

BTW thanks for the barchart tip, they do have great stuff there!

[cottonpicken]

I'm 100% sure of that.

The canadian dollar is considered a hard asset
because of all its resource wealth.

All commodities are globally priced in usdx's,so
their base price is even effected on dollar strength
or weakness,let alone the specalative capital of the
globe looking for a place to park itself when the
dollar tanks.

In a nutshell this is what u.s dollar hedgonamy(sp)
is,which is why it is the worlds reserve currency.

Everyday countries need us dollars to do
business,this creates a demand and countries also
hoard dollars to defend their own currencies.Think
about the 80 million barrel a day crude oil market
and everything else.

Anyways.....imagine a scenario where us dollars
werent the only kid on the block(Saddam hussein
was going to start selling oil in euros and look
where that got him.)

The chaos would be unimaginable.

The dollar would drop but how much?

A trillion is a large number.
A million is a stack of one thousand dollar bills four
inches high.
A trillion is 63 miles high.
A trillion seconds is 31,000 years.


This why i watch the bond market so closely.

Last year someone bought over a trillion in us
government debt,with yields in the toilet?

This years annualized rate is now pushing 3?

I hope i'm missing something about where this is
headed

[cottonpicken]

CP you nailed it.

LMAO, I think the same thoughts never know how to word it as well as you!!

[Hopperbin]

Plus throw in the fact that our country cannot sustain a par plus Canadian dollar for any length of time. When if our dollar goes up it will also come crashing down in my opinion.

[Kodiak]

Dennis Gartman says the Euro is going to 115. What does that mean for the usdx, Cdn$, and canola?

[cottonpicken]

I never liked gartman much,but he is probably right
on the euro.

Its sort of already happening now,its supporting the
dollar.

When it shakes out it will still be bullish canola,and
bullish canadian dollars(candos).

It will give the usdx illusional support as both fall
against the value of tangibles.

Harder to find but of great importance are gold/oil
price charts in various currencies.

Which brings us back to a super spike in the
cando,which i was worrying about a while back.

So lets play a little fairy tale land.(this is your
fantasy)

You are a 100 million dollar plus capitalist that
originates from tokyo,dubi,new
york,paris,berlin,hong kong,madrid,istanbul(turkey
has more millionares than
japan),berlin,luxamawhat,oslon,etc,etc,etc... it
doesnt really matter the world is huge but it takes a
few seconds to transfer capital anywhere.

So your sitting there,in a board room with the
analysts you have hired because your so rich and
you have needed a little me time from all the
zillons of hours of work you have put into building
your fortune and they are firing crap at you non
stop.

But the only reason your there,is because these
same bunch of college egg heads managed to loose
a third of your wealth in the past 6 quarters.

You could be back where you were,sailing around
the horn,killing the last rhino,a brothel in
ampsterdamn,an elton john concert,climbing fuji,...
etc etc etc(you choose)

So your sitting there with your head in your hands
and all of a sudden you jump up and scream SHUT
UP,SHUT UP,SHUT UP!!!!!YOU ARE ALL
SECARATARIES NOW!BRING ME INFORMATION!

So now what?

My choice-canada,some asia,norway,australia,new
zealand,some india

[boarderbloke]

so which will take over/become the worlds reserve currency? or are you saying that, Gold We Become The Worlds Currency?
I don't think any of the countries listed in your last paragraph would over take the USD, although I thought I heard some rumblings a short while back about have a mix of a couple currencies, to make a new reserve currency?
cotton, I've been wondering for a while now, That if inflation is so assured, why isn't everyone on that bandwagon already? There are still plenty of acticals writen nearly everyday about deflation. If there is little movement in the market one way or the other, Doesn't that mean money taking positions for inflation are being countered by money taking positions for delation? Atleast until we see it break hard one way or the other? If everyone was on board with inflation, wouldn't we see it reflected in commodity prices already, like $150 crude and $16 canola as we've already historically seen already? We're a long way from taking these prices out.(only at half of each)
I know there's a lot of questions here, and I appreciate you answering them and your ideas. But I have one last one. Could the USA have inflation and deflation at the same time? By that I mean, could domesticly made items retail for the same price as now, while wages go up(deflation) or domesticly made items rise in price at a slower rate than wages(delation), mean while foreign imports will be considerably higher than the increase in wages(inflation)
Maybe that's how Obama will get his tax income from the masses! "Your only going to pay more taxes if you make more than $250,000/yr", well maybe in five years a kid will be making $250,000/yr working at Burger King!

[boarderbloke]

BB, not Burger King. Their burgers suck, maybe Arbys though!!!LOL!!!