Old crop canola, direction?

[boarderbloke]

Seeing this is the marketing area!(turn sarcasm off) Anyone care to dicuss the marketing of remaining old crop canola stocks? I have a couple cars yet, and I imagine some others here would also have some bushels too.
Was very pleased to see July close over the $388 level, if momentom can continue, $398 would be next resistance/support. Here's a chart, if you scroll down under that chart past Contract Specs, you'll see some technical analysis. What do marketers here think, higher, lower, or more sideways?
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CA/70

[mbratrud]

challange will be to get past Mar 31 USDA report seeding intentions.

[boarderbloke]

mbratrud, here are a variety of U.S. planting estimates from 23 different analysts. Doesn't look like a big increase over last year on the bean side.

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?&page=story&id=149146

[mbratrud]

USDA has surprised us before

[cottonpicken]

A greater help would be for the usdx to break
down.

Funny how this little rally happened just after
obamanation just spent a boatload of money.

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXM0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

Boarder,you may prefer barcharts.Lots and lots of
tools available.

[cottonpicken]

A greater help would be for the usdx to break
down.

Funny how this little rally happened just after
obamanation just spent a boatload of money.

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXM0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

Boarder,you may prefer barcharts.Lots and lots of
tools available.

[cottonpicken]

Example

http://charts3.barchart.com/procal.asp?sym=RSK0

[boarderbloke]

cottonpicken, are you suggesting in your first line, that higher prices for canola in the futures/and farm gate would be more acheivable if the USD droped in value thus increasing bean/soyoil and crude prices even though that would mean that the CAN$ would also rise?

More simply, your thinking canola would rise more so, if the USD droped, rather that the CAN$ ?

BTW thanks for the barchart tip, they do have great stuff there!

[cottonpicken]

I'm 100% sure of that.

The canadian dollar is considered a hard asset
because of all its resource wealth.

All commodities are globally priced in usdx's,so
their base price is even effected on dollar strength
or weakness,let alone the specalative capital of the
globe looking for a place to park itself when the
dollar tanks.

In a nutshell this is what u.s dollar hedgonamy(sp)
is,which is why it is the worlds reserve currency.

Everyday countries need us dollars to do
business,this creates a demand and countries also
hoard dollars to defend their own currencies.Think
about the 80 million barrel a day crude oil market
and everything else.

Anyways.....imagine a scenario where us dollars
werent the only kid on the block(Saddam hussein
was going to start selling oil in euros and look
where that got him.)

The chaos would be unimaginable.

The dollar would drop but how much?

A trillion is a large number.
A million is a stack of one thousand dollar bills four
inches high.
A trillion is 63 miles high.
A trillion seconds is 31,000 years.


This why i watch the bond market so closely.

Last year someone bought over a trillion in us
government debt,with yields in the toilet?

This years annualized rate is now pushing 3?

I hope i'm missing something about where this is
headed

[cottonpicken]

CP you nailed it.

LMAO, I think the same thoughts never know how to word it as well as you!!

[Hopperbin]

Plus throw in the fact that our country cannot sustain a par plus Canadian dollar for any length of time. When if our dollar goes up it will also come crashing down in my opinion.

[Kodiak]

Dennis Gartman says the Euro is going to 115. What does that mean for the usdx, Cdn$, and canola?