Old crop canola, direction?

[cottonpicken]

I never liked gartman much,but he is probably right
on the euro.

Its sort of already happening now,its supporting the
dollar.

When it shakes out it will still be bullish canola,and
bullish canadian dollars(candos).

It will give the usdx illusional support as both fall
against the value of tangibles.

Harder to find but of great importance are gold/oil
price charts in various currencies.

Which brings us back to a super spike in the
cando,which i was worrying about a while back.

So lets play a little fairy tale land.(this is your
fantasy)

You are a 100 million dollar plus capitalist that
originates from tokyo,dubi,new
york,paris,berlin,hong kong,madrid,istanbul(turkey
has more millionares than
japan),berlin,luxamawhat,oslon,etc,etc,etc... it
doesnt really matter the world is huge but it takes a
few seconds to transfer capital anywhere.

So your sitting there,in a board room with the
analysts you have hired because your so rich and
you have needed a little me time from all the
zillons of hours of work you have put into building
your fortune and they are firing crap at you non
stop.

But the only reason your there,is because these
same bunch of college egg heads managed to loose
a third of your wealth in the past 6 quarters.

You could be back where you were,sailing around
the horn,killing the last rhino,a brothel in
ampsterdamn,an elton john concert,climbing fuji,...
etc etc etc(you choose)

So your sitting there with your head in your hands
and all of a sudden you jump up and scream SHUT
UP,SHUT UP,SHUT UP!!!!!YOU ARE ALL
SECARATARIES NOW!BRING ME INFORMATION!

So now what?

My choice-canada,some asia,norway,australia,new
zealand,some india

[boarderbloke]

so which will take over/become the worlds reserve currency? or are you saying that, Gold We Become The Worlds Currency?
I don't think any of the countries listed in your last paragraph would over take the USD, although I thought I heard some rumblings a short while back about have a mix of a couple currencies, to make a new reserve currency?
cotton, I've been wondering for a while now, That if inflation is so assured, why isn't everyone on that bandwagon already? There are still plenty of acticals writen nearly everyday about deflation. If there is little movement in the market one way or the other, Doesn't that mean money taking positions for inflation are being countered by money taking positions for delation? Atleast until we see it break hard one way or the other? If everyone was on board with inflation, wouldn't we see it reflected in commodity prices already, like $150 crude and $16 canola as we've already historically seen already? We're a long way from taking these prices out.(only at half of each)
I know there's a lot of questions here, and I appreciate you answering them and your ideas. But I have one last one. Could the USA have inflation and deflation at the same time? By that I mean, could domesticly made items retail for the same price as now, while wages go up(deflation) or domesticly made items rise in price at a slower rate than wages(delation), mean while foreign imports will be considerably higher than the increase in wages(inflation)
Maybe that's how Obama will get his tax income from the masses! "Your only going to pay more taxes if you make more than $250,000/yr", well maybe in five years a kid will be making $250,000/yr working at Burger King!

[boarderbloke]

BB, not Burger King. Their burgers suck, maybe Arbys though!!!LOL!!!

[charliep]

My two bits.

Short term fundamentals. Tight US old crop supplies US soybeans (US has had to make up the deficit from S. American situation over the past year) versus larger Argentina and Brazil supplies now being harvested.

Talk about poorer than expected yields in Mato Grasso Brazil - fact or fiction and from there impact total supplies. Logistics/politics Argentina. A port strike currently on.

US soybean acreage (Wednesday) and from there yield. US soybean supplies tight at the end of the current crop year so US production needs to stay up.

US soybean oil that continues to hold close to 40 cents/lb. Crude oil will hold vegetable prices up.

Big canola acres. Suspect will all be used up but will be a factor that weighs on the market short term. May be a positive however if weather remains dry and customers start worrying about supplies - need an 11 to 12 million tonne crop.

Short term market sideways to down. Medium term? Have your target prices and stick to them.

[mbratrud]

Good advice Charlie, I Agree.

[cottonpicken]

I think the reserve currency will stay the same for the
forseable future,but its purchasing power will be
reduced.

I would argue the inflation phase has/is already
happening,and wages and economic activity have little
to do with it.In fact inflation usually happens during
depressed times.