Crop potential

[newguy]

Last year there was a big area that was dry and heard nothing but prices would go up because of less grain production,.. It ended up there was a very good crop as a whole. This year it is too wet. Land has not been seeded and as we get later the more risk the farmers will have for a good yeild..Over the years the worst years farming have been the ones we had a big crop than froze. I seem to have coped better with a drought than a early frost. A drought a person can see coming and try to adjust but a frost hits you and a matter of hours expectations of a crop is gone. No one knows what this year will bring in the end but it scares me.. I am wondering why some grains and oilseed prices are not going up or am I the only one worried..??

[bucket]

Well lets see.

You have experts predicting an 18 million acre canola crop.

You have reports days behind saying if the weather turns nice everything will be okay. If it gets nice 4 or 5 days are needed just to dry out.

I don't want to turn this into a cwb thing but have you heard anything from them about how late its getting. None of my neighbors have started on cereals. And I think most were leaving those until last. So where does the cwb export program come from. If I was at the cwb I would be rethinking my sales going forward. And how is the durum crop looking right now. That 2 year reserve the cwb likes to sit on at our expense might be bought up already at horrible prices.

The crop potential becomes surviving a frost in the next few days and then aug/sept.

And you are right droughts are easier to take - at least you can seed and wait for a rain. When you can't seed because of moisture - you are waiting for what ----- a drought!

Worried, you bet, but not because the crop is not in, BUT because no one and I mean no one understands the magnitude of this. Bankers don't care that its raining and neither do suppliers, finance companies or governments.

This year could sink a lot of exceptional operators due to no fault of their own.

[furrowtickler]

Good points bucket, but also it will sink alot of ego farmers who ran up land rents and took on more dirt(In this area anyway). Sorry I am gona dig whenever I can. You are 100% right on for most areas, excellent well run farms may be in for a rough ride b/c they have been swamped for an unusualy long time - something even the best of managers can't plan for. Lets hope for a good Sept/Oct.

[parsley]

newguy, I dug perennial flowers all afternoon. I had to dig peonies at least 24" deep to reach the roots. Rich black dirt all shook off the roots. Not even tacky. I dug in a lot of different places. Roots all shook out bare. Yet I see water in some ditches.

So it will most likely dry here quickly once the sun comes out.