Weather looking like 1996

[Jagfarms]

The weather we are having this year looks a lot like
the weather we had in 1996.

We had lots of Rain in April and May in 1996.
There was also lots of rain in June in 1996 and
some in July.

There was lots of Rain in August to October 1996
over 4 inches through harvest. We had a frost that
year on Sept 24.

[furrowtickler]

Check out Accu weather vids, (El-nino has nothing to do with huricanes) Belive me, it is a good explaination on ocean temps, hurricanes and a potential cool fall for us. I will look back and get this guys name.

[furrowtickler]

Joe Bastardi.

[LWeber]

For the 1996/97 crop year, there were 2.5% of the seeded canola acres not harvested.

[bucket]

mr weber.

How many canola acres were seeded in 96?

How many acres are lost already for this year that have been seeded?

Those acres not harvested in 96 would be a pittance compared to what has been lost already this year due to rainfall. Doubtful that 17 million acres will be seeded to canola this year.

[crusher]

Sure dried a lot of grain in 1996.
But we grew a lot of grain in 1996.
Might interfere with my snowbird plans.

[fjlip]

For our area this is a repeat of 2007, 4.5" after May 20, a flood disaster half way through seeding. Fields were V ditched to drain water. Canola seeded to June 9 resulted in 20 bu/ acre half crop. Weedy, short but no frost.

[LWeber]

Bucket:

Mr.?
I'm old but not that old.

In 96/97 - 8,7430,000 acres of canola were seeded.

I would think we are approaching 5% canola lost on what has been seeded so far.

Anyone that is going up in a plane over the next week will have a great view of what is going on if they know what to look for and if it is clear.

My data only goes back to 1979; however, during the frost event in 2004/05 where 6.7% was not harvested on 12.88 million acres seeded.

In 92/93 - 5.9% was not harvested on 7.75 million acres.

In 87/88 - the drought event - 13.4% was not harvested on 7.45 million acres and that is the worst percentage in my data.

[bucket]

What are the production numbers looking like with your knowledge at this point in time.

14 million acres harvested for 2010 and 30 bpa average still only puts the production numbers at 9.5 mmt.

Canola prices are going the wrong way?

[LWeber]

If I learned anything last year, it was not to write the crop off too early. Up until it rained on Father's Day last year, I was crying wolf and we ended up with the highest yield ever except AB.

You are safe using 30 bpa - that is slightly above the 10 yr average.

Acres are the big unknown. From the amount of emails I received over the weekend, another week of no seeding and planting intentions will change dramatically.

Anyone who thinks all the lentils are in, needs their head read.