Canola UP, traders and crushers waking up to reality ???

[ry0972]

Up as much as $7.50/tonne at one point. Still up over $6/T.
$9 / bushel should be available soon.
I think 80% of intended acres are in, 10 % are under water, another 15% saturated, 20% are just seeded. Mid August Frost is a 75% probability.
We might see $10 by July, unless something else like the China import ban will knock it back to $7 !!!!

[charliep]

Was a good day given slightly lower CBT bean oil prices and a stronger dollar. To get your $10/bu canola, I would suggest CBT soybean futures have to push 45 cents per pound. Is this a possibility?

[charliep]

For what is worth, an article quoting oil world.

Start quote:

"****seed crop to fall, with 'major implications'
World ****seed production is, despite a jump in Canada's harvest, to fall for its first time in four years, potentially creating a squeeze on supplies of the oilseed in Europe, Oil World has said.

World ****seed production will fall to 59.87m tonnes in 2010-11, with declines in most major producers, the analysis group said in its first forecasts for the forthcoming marketing year.

Output in the European Union, the world's biggest producer, will fall by 770,000 tonnes to 20.8m tonnes with China's crop sliding by 1m tonnes to 11.8m tonnes.

While the fall in the global figure is small, at 100,000 tonnes, it contrasts with a US Department of Agriculture forecast that world ****seed output will keep rising, and by nearly 1m tonnes.

'Damage or delays'

Oil World's assessment also forecasts a considerably larger Canadian crop of canola, the ****seed variant, than many other analysts are predicting, and comes despite growing concerns over rain-caused setbacks.

Oil World's ****seed output forecasts (year-on-year change)

EU: 20.80m tonnes (-3.6%)

Canada: 12.60m tonnes ( 6.5%)

China: 11.80m tonnes (-7.2%)

Ukraine: 1.75m tonnes (-6.4%)

World: 59.87m tonnes (-0.2%)

"Very heavy rains last weekend caused flooding and will produce either damage or delays in spring planting," Agritel, the Paris-based consultancy, said, adding that 11 centimetres of rain had fallen in some provinces in two days.

"This could provide some support to canola [prices]," Agritel said.

Even before the rains, the US Department of Agriculture was estimating Canada's canola crop at 12.0m tonnes, 600,000 tonnes shy of Oil World's estimate.

Canada's farm ministry has estimated the crop at 11.7m tonnes.

Biodiesel demand

Oil World forecast that the "stagnation" in world ****seed production would have "major implications" on the volume of the oilseed crushed.

"It would also curb the growth in the availability of **** oil and meal," the influential analysis group said.

This could present problems in particular for Europe's biofuels industry, which uses ****seed oil as a key feedstock for making biodiesel.

The shortfall in product availability would be particularly evident in the second half of 2010-11, Oil World said.

Prospects for EU using imports to prop up ****seed supplies have also been dented by the likelihood of a smaller harvest in Ukraine, which has suffered high rates of winterkill in some crops.

Paris ****seed for August delivery closed down E1.00 at E306.00 a tonne, with the November lot easing E0.25 at E310.75 a tonne."

End quote

[BreadWinner]

Boy are they going to be shocked when we produce a staggaring 6.5m tonnes, half of what they forcasting. Just finished spraying 500ac of canola it is very poor shape. It might average half of what I had hoped and we only got half of our canola acres seeded. Really, Really wet it is just dying as we speak.

[cottonpicken]

God himself cant stop what is about to happen.

[redleaf]

Would like to hear what you think is going to happen Cotton!

[furrowtickler]

red, we may see a re-run of '08. No puckin trader in the U.S. realy has a clue as to the situation in western Canada.

[fjlip]

Up $4.50 at this momment
Howard Leaman comment... There are predictions that canola acreage will be smaller than expected, possibly 2 to 3 million acres smaller, due to excess moisture in parts of western Canada. In addition, the crop that has been planted in some areas has been damaged by the moisture. Revelation! They have eyes and ears!

[ado089]

I'm not sure we'll see '08 numbers again because that was a speculator driven orgy of greed, this is a reduction in supply. I too would say that the crop will be 2.5-3.5 million ac less but there are alot of alternatives to canola oil, so until we find a good use for the meal I think $11/bu will be a great price to pull the trigger on in the near term.

[mcfarms]

9.30 /bushel spring 11 delivery this morning, 9.05 old crop june/july del.

[fjlip]

July UP 5.40 at the moment. Basis falling!