Attended Farm Barbecue today, consensus were done seeding most say!

[LWeber]

The USDA can take a sat shot of your farm that can be blown up to tell if you had a shit in the driveway - that is how clear it is. Google Earth loses resultion when blown up and the technology is considered antiquated.

Some of the USDA global crop monitoring sats circle the globe once every 90 minutes. BUT - they are worthless in cloud cover.

For 79 million dollars of administrative fees, all of it working for farmers, (sarcasm off) how many sat pictures have you seen?

You guys deserve so much better.

[dave4441]

I give up Freewheat. Not once did i mention anything about canola, nor did i say i had seen either NE or East central. And to be quite honest, canola yields in SW can be quite strong, especially hybrid and the fact we have less disease pressure then your area. I do not grow canola due to my continuous cropping rotation.

Here is my suggestion. If you feel the canola crop is bad and have enough conviction, take your line of credit and buy the sh-t out of the canola futures. I am not trying to be a prick here, but maybe there are other options for you. I should have my head examined for ever posting what i have seen on here.

[freewheat]

I would use my line of credit but she's all used up. Still paying for 06/07. I DO NOT think your a prick and hope you don't think I am. I'm afraid of going down, and so excuse me if I am short at times these days.

Take care.

[dave4441]

No problem, i have been through enough droughts where we had virtually no rain, then a sprinkle in June, blow a wad of inputs, and then zippo for crop, i do get it. Weather it is drought or to wet they are both an devestating to finances.

[hobbyfrmr]

I am strongly thinking of buying long futures call options for canola. I am thinking December. I have not looked at prices or premiums, just trying to collect thoughts. I not not grow canola, no chance for phsyical delivery. Buy long call options, if price goes above strike price and premium paid, I would sell the option make profit correct? If it stays below strike price premium, then no profit, and the options would expire worthless. Just checking, after all, sometimes its about commodity marketing. Some insight would be helpful to make sure I have this straight.

[ry0972]

The trouble with canola calls/puts and even the futures is the very limited trade volume!!! I have had call buy orders in for over a week and even though my price has been hit many times NONE have triggered!! I have been in and out of July beans 5 times for good profits in that same time!
Once the crushers and traders screw the farmers with July basis contracts out of their grain i think Nov and Jan Canola futures with rally HARD UP!! DYUDD
If I can get $9 for my remaining 09 canola it will hit the road and be replaced by 5X the tonnes on paper.
Wishing I had had the balls to go long Can $ at .92 like I wanted but OH well next time. Maybe short the US$ if it gets over 90 on its index.

[hobbyfrmr]

ry, I am pretty new at this, but the Union Securities guy said the same thing liquidity can be a problem. I did not ask, so maybe you know this, with (presumed) volatility in the winnipeg canola market, will the liquidity/volume improve, or, is this a static,fixed market. ie. when the market is boring, liquidity is slow, but when the market gets more interest, volume will increase, easier to get in or out of a position or... is it just as difficult getting in and out like when its a boring market. I am thinking that canola may behave independant of soybeans this year(maybe) just because of the fewer acres and the crushers in Yorkton. For one year, it may become its own animal. Just a hunch.

[jensend]

the grain companies are masters at working basis against futures against options just as the big financial institutions have been diddling gold at every options expiry date. why not just write a cheque and not bother with the suspense?

[mbratrud]

watch for $390 or $400 Nov puts to get cheap IE $10 nice way to hedge with low risk.