Attended Farm Barbecue today, consensus were done seeding most say!

[ry0972]

The trouble with canola calls/puts and even the futures is the very limited trade volume!!! I have had call buy orders in for over a week and even though my price has been hit many times NONE have triggered!! I have been in and out of July beans 5 times for good profits in that same time!
Once the crushers and traders screw the farmers with July basis contracts out of their grain i think Nov and Jan Canola futures with rally HARD UP!! DYUDD
If I can get $9 for my remaining 09 canola it will hit the road and be replaced by 5X the tonnes on paper.
Wishing I had had the balls to go long Can $ at .92 like I wanted but OH well next time. Maybe short the US$ if it gets over 90 on its index.

[hobbyfrmr]

ry, I am pretty new at this, but the Union Securities guy said the same thing liquidity can be a problem. I did not ask, so maybe you know this, with (presumed) volatility in the winnipeg canola market, will the liquidity/volume improve, or, is this a static,fixed market. ie. when the market is boring, liquidity is slow, but when the market gets more interest, volume will increase, easier to get in or out of a position or... is it just as difficult getting in and out like when its a boring market. I am thinking that canola may behave independant of soybeans this year(maybe) just because of the fewer acres and the crushers in Yorkton. For one year, it may become its own animal. Just a hunch.

[jensend]

the grain companies are masters at working basis against futures against options just as the big financial institutions have been diddling gold at every options expiry date. why not just write a cheque and not bother with the suspense?

[mbratrud]

watch for $390 or $400 Nov puts to get cheap IE $10 nice way to hedge with low risk.