Total production contest

[cottonpicken]

Total production compared to the ten year average for
western canada?

I'll take a stab at 50%

After the tour i took today im probably high

[bucket]

After all of this, the saying "Canada doesn't have an effect on prices" really makes me wonder.

Does the EU now know that the next flax crop comes in the fall of 2011?

That is, IF prices are high enough next spring to grow it.

[boarderbloke]

I'll say 70% of total.

Crop reporting says 73% planted, the numbers might be fudged a bit but lets say it's 75% planted. So take 25% off the top for not planted, then what was planted(75%), take off 15% of that for drowned out, that would be 11.25% off of the 75% or say even take off 20% for drowning, that is still only 15% off of the 75% planted.
BUT, if the yields increase on whats left by 15% on the surviving 60% that would push your over all yield back up to about 70%

100% (total cultivated)
- 25% not planted
======
75% seeded
- 15% (20% flooded that was seeded,
====== that might be a little high)
60%
10% (15% increase in yield on,
====== remaining 60%)
70%

[furrowtickler]

This will be the hardest call ever, even in this area, where we have been extreemly fortunate - crops are o.k. at this point, but plane and ground sprayers are raceing against cutworms and weeds. Most are 5 - 10 days too late. 50% is not at all out of the question after todays flood event in s.e. Alberta and s.w. Sask, they had a good start and it's gone in a flash - flood. Not all but big area. N.W. Alberta is faceing some major problems too.
Before checking, burbot and agstar rip me on this, take a deep breath and have a real good look at the big picture - alot of big production has been washed away, or has not even had a chance.

[agstar77]

You have not factored in what may not be harvested. The winter wheat crop looks good, but how much will be harvestible or will be downgraded by disease. It is headed out now so fusarium should go wild with the heat and moisture. Some of the desparate ones have been pulling sprayers with 4 wheel drives. Can't do that with 50 to 60 thousand pound combines.

[VK58]

My estimate today on coffee shop row was around 60% of average. Canola/Flax/barley/oats will be worse, wheat corn soybeans about 75-80%. Disease is the wildcard for the wheat crop in the banana belt of the praires, starting to look like 93 all over again. If it stays wet like this it will take half of whats left. I am keeping any old crop wheat for seed, did that in 93,glad i did. 54# WHEAT MAKES POOR SEED.

[checking]

Furrowtickler.

Every contest should have a prize. I'm just waiting to see what cp is going to put up!!

Isn't that amazing, bucket, that our insignificant grain production to the world, as told by countless brokers, traders, elevator companies, everyone but farmers in the business, can have a dramatic impact on bushel price?

A very probable reduction in supply is coming. It can take crop prices off their lows, and trending lower, to where a 50% crop can have the same value as a 100% crop? This, to me, is a case of we won't do for ourselves, yearly, what nature will temporarily fix.

[BreadWinner]

My bold prediction is a shocking 30% of average with below average grades feed in most cases. We will battle all the elements loosing ground throughout the summer, what isnt under water, eaten by bugs, smashed by hail, or rotting from disease will come to a short and abrupt end with an early frost -9c on the 24th of August. Prices will bounce greater than the last spike and people will be shocked. This is not as doomsday prediction it could happen because we are not in control we are just allong for the ride. Can't hardly wait to try again next year.

[wd9]

What makes a flood any more special then any other environmental issue that it would require a special handout? Isn't this why you take crop insurance?

Select areas get dried out and those farmers get no assistance. Where is the government handout then?

Seems pretty unfair that certain issues in certain areas with the right political representation get funding. Best example was in southern Alberta when ag minister Shirley had grasshopers in her area and provided funding. She never gave a shit that areas not in her riding got froze out.

Risk keeps economics in check. Ag has little to no risk and that is not good.

[cottonpicken]

I was sort of using those numbers to,boarder,but
60 % left and that 60 % isnt doing so hot in a lot of
areas.

Plus the high production good dirt guys will not
have good yields on what they have in.

I have a hard time believing anyone will have an
increase in production(except of course master
farmer checking).

But the stunning fact is only 60 percent of the acres
are capable of anything.

[boarderbloke]

perhaps 70% reflects some of my natural optimism, but it seems that we're agreeable that only 60% of the land is capable of production.
My estimate doesn't account for catastrophic disease(only avg.), frost, or grades(likely low protein). I'm hearing talk now of low protein in the hay crop, what does that mean for high protein feed grains(carried over)? Any comment from those with livestock or charliep?

[boarderbloke]

Something more to consider are the crop types and the price direction they may take? What crops grown on the praires have global price significance. I'll put forward canola?, flax, oats, lentils, mustard, peas, canary seed, any others??? First I would say, that of those crops that are typically planted later, have a lower portion of the planted acres. ie. flax(slow to get growing, doesn't look good here in the wet), mustard, canaryseed & oats. Crops that are most often seeded first likely have most of their acres in, ie. peas, lentils(also slow growing and doesn't look good).
I can understand a price effect on canola due to domestic crusher demand to fill contracts, but will the loss of canola acres effect global prices past the fall into the winter months?

Just to be a poop disturber,,,,,what will become of organic crops on a year like this, when you can't kill much with tillage, prior seeding?

[cottonpicken]

Another part the math could be seen as the 40% not
planted historically produces 60% of the production.

So now we are well below 50%-add in the a 15%
reduction on the 60% seeded and breadwinners
numbers win the contest.

[BreadWinner]

Im going to stick out my neck and say that the frost will affect a large potion of the midwest US and Canada. The corn and beens will be very late due to a cool wet summer, resulting in huge loses in yeild and grade. Prices Dec 1st corn $5.00/bus, beans $16.00/bus, Canola $15.75/bus, Oats $4.10/bus, Barley $4.50/bus NB, wheat $6.50/bus NB,$4.75/bus cwb,durum $5.00 cwb, lentils $0.38/lb, yellow peas$9.00/bus. Fertilizer up up up.

[checking]

Of all people, cp, I would never have thought I'd have to put you in the camp of brokers, traders, and grain companies. More worried about production, than price. My good Buddha.