Total production contest

[cottonpicken]

Another part the math could be seen as the 40% not
planted historically produces 60% of the production.

So now we are well below 50%-add in the a 15%
reduction on the 60% seeded and breadwinners
numbers win the contest.

[BreadWinner]

Im going to stick out my neck and say that the frost will affect a large potion of the midwest US and Canada. The corn and beens will be very late due to a cool wet summer, resulting in huge loses in yeild and grade. Prices Dec 1st corn $5.00/bus, beans $16.00/bus, Canola $15.75/bus, Oats $4.10/bus, Barley $4.50/bus NB, wheat $6.50/bus NB,$4.75/bus cwb,durum $5.00 cwb, lentils $0.38/lb, yellow peas$9.00/bus. Fertilizer up up up.

[checking]

Of all people, cp, I would never have thought I'd have to put you in the camp of brokers, traders, and grain companies. More worried about production, than price. My good Buddha.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well here goes since were so late and drowning out in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Hm didn't I call this one. Burpfart. Any way 63% and if it freezes first week of August wow the number will be even lower. Only one field of Canola or two Cabbaging on way to lake and that was at Balcarres. Most are just out of ground or maybe you can see rows. Cereals and Pulses a lovely yellow green. And lots of flooded out areas especially around Edgeley and Duff.

[cottonpicken]

Every farmer is a commodity trader whether he
knows it or not.

Why do you bother posting checking?

Its not like anything intelligent has ever come out of
your mouth.

I guess i shouldnt be surprised from someone who
wishes doom and gloom on his fellow man.

shallow thoughts shallow mind

[BFW]

If there is a -9 frost on August 24, beans will be alot higher than than $16/bu. There would be very few beans left except in the southern half of the US midwest or the delta. Certainly anything is possible and I sure hope we don't see that scenario. The pricing of #1 wheat , durum or spring would be like pricing a special crop which is in short supply. Its always fun to dream up worst case scenarios. I will call the crop 90 percent of normal based on that even in a dry year across the prairies there is always enough good spots to pull up the average. This year our dry areas are replaced with with washouts but with another extended growing season an exceptional July and August the western Canadian farmers continue to amaze the skeptics. (ourselves)

[Jay-mo]

I also will lean toward the higher side and say 90% of normal. We generally seem to have a bent towards negative outlooks. The last two years have been good examples of that. I know it took a hot and dry November to rescue alot of guys, but things turned out alright in the end for most.

[bigsteve]

I think its super important to break it dowm crop by crop.First of all,the brunt of the excess moisture situation is in sask.east-central and north-east.This is an area where 70% of canada's milling oats are grown.The farmers in those areas concentrated on seeding canola and wheat when they could.Very-very few oats are in the ground.I guess it at 10% of normal.Its going to be fun to watch the market rocket higher in the next few weeks.Anybody want to bet me a mickey of rum on it?

[checking]

You have extremely selective hearing, cp. You really should listen more. Specifically, show me where I wished the man who scrambled to get his last four hours of seeding in to get to 98% complete any ill will.

Perhaps you enjoy harvesting, storing and then hauling twice the loads down the road for half the money. I don't. Now, if you have a problem with that concept, I'd listen to your outline.

You accused a farmer, who by choice, and long prior to spring, decided not to seed a 2010 crop, and left the impression with audience that I was somehow profiting from what has happened. Explain yourself, and I will listen.

Otherwise, you're no better than Hyde.

[checking]

"Every farmer is a commodity trader whether he knows it or not."

Not even close to correct. Every farmer is a price taker.

Commodity traders have you by the gonads because they are aware of this great truth.

[rockpile]

I'm going to be bold and therefore piss everyone
off. June 19th, late seeding, too much moisture in a
lot of areas = 80% of normal production. Why do I
say that? Because most farmers look around at their
own little wreck and double it through hyperbole.
Those areas not blasted may well benefit and pick
up extra yields. Poor quality? I look at it this way.
You're in the woods hiking with a friend when
suddenly a grizzly bear gives chase. You don't have
to out run the bear, just your friend. Meaning,
standards can change quickly depending on what's
available. It may look bad, but it's too early to
scream 'chicken little'. In three weeks time those
yellowed underwater acres could be burning. Take a
prosac and wait and see. For those who were in the
middle of the tempest and all is lost - it is just more
of the same but different!

[SASKFARMER3]

Rockpile nice theory but problem this year with your scenario is their are 5 bears chasing you and your friend. Drive around, no not just your RM but the whole province and tell me where their are excellent crops for miles. WHERE ARE THEY!