Total production contest

[boarderbloke]

perhaps 70% reflects some of my natural optimism, but it seems that we're agreeable that only 60% of the land is capable of production.
My estimate doesn't account for catastrophic disease(only avg.), frost, or grades(likely low protein). I'm hearing talk now of low protein in the hay crop, what does that mean for high protein feed grains(carried over)? Any comment from those with livestock or charliep?

[boarderbloke]

Something more to consider are the crop types and the price direction they may take? What crops grown on the praires have global price significance. I'll put forward canola?, flax, oats, lentils, mustard, peas, canary seed, any others??? First I would say, that of those crops that are typically planted later, have a lower portion of the planted acres. ie. flax(slow to get growing, doesn't look good here in the wet), mustard, canaryseed & oats. Crops that are most often seeded first likely have most of their acres in, ie. peas, lentils(also slow growing and doesn't look good).
I can understand a price effect on canola due to domestic crusher demand to fill contracts, but will the loss of canola acres effect global prices past the fall into the winter months?

Just to be a poop disturber,,,,,what will become of organic crops on a year like this, when you can't kill much with tillage, prior seeding?

[cottonpicken]

Another part the math could be seen as the 40% not
planted historically produces 60% of the production.

So now we are well below 50%-add in the a 15%
reduction on the 60% seeded and breadwinners
numbers win the contest.

[BreadWinner]

Im going to stick out my neck and say that the frost will affect a large potion of the midwest US and Canada. The corn and beens will be very late due to a cool wet summer, resulting in huge loses in yeild and grade. Prices Dec 1st corn $5.00/bus, beans $16.00/bus, Canola $15.75/bus, Oats $4.10/bus, Barley $4.50/bus NB, wheat $6.50/bus NB,$4.75/bus cwb,durum $5.00 cwb, lentils $0.38/lb, yellow peas$9.00/bus. Fertilizer up up up.

[checking]

Of all people, cp, I would never have thought I'd have to put you in the camp of brokers, traders, and grain companies. More worried about production, than price. My good Buddha.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well here goes since were so late and drowning out in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Hm didn't I call this one. Burpfart. Any way 63% and if it freezes first week of August wow the number will be even lower. Only one field of Canola or two Cabbaging on way to lake and that was at Balcarres. Most are just out of ground or maybe you can see rows. Cereals and Pulses a lovely yellow green. And lots of flooded out areas especially around Edgeley and Duff.

[cottonpicken]

Every farmer is a commodity trader whether he
knows it or not.

Why do you bother posting checking?

Its not like anything intelligent has ever come out of
your mouth.

I guess i shouldnt be surprised from someone who
wishes doom and gloom on his fellow man.

shallow thoughts shallow mind

[BFW]

If there is a -9 frost on August 24, beans will be alot higher than than $16/bu. There would be very few beans left except in the southern half of the US midwest or the delta. Certainly anything is possible and I sure hope we don't see that scenario. The pricing of #1 wheat , durum or spring would be like pricing a special crop which is in short supply. Its always fun to dream up worst case scenarios. I will call the crop 90 percent of normal based on that even in a dry year across the prairies there is always enough good spots to pull up the average. This year our dry areas are replaced with with washouts but with another extended growing season an exceptional July and August the western Canadian farmers continue to amaze the skeptics. (ourselves)

[Jay-mo]

I also will lean toward the higher side and say 90% of normal. We generally seem to have a bent towards negative outlooks. The last two years have been good examples of that. I know it took a hot and dry November to rescue alot of guys, but things turned out alright in the end for most.

[bigsteve]

I think its super important to break it dowm crop by crop.First of all,the brunt of the excess moisture situation is in sask.east-central and north-east.This is an area where 70% of canada's milling oats are grown.The farmers in those areas concentrated on seeding canola and wheat when they could.Very-very few oats are in the ground.I guess it at 10% of normal.Its going to be fun to watch the market rocket higher in the next few weeks.Anybody want to bet me a mickey of rum on it?