12 mill to high but 9 probably right on!

[SASKFARMER3]

I believe 9 million unseeded is probably right where stats can will come. But their is more to that and this is why.
1. Full quarters for insurance and only 140 to 120 acres actually seeded.
2. flooded area same full down to 140.
3. weed problems.
4. Continued wet if happens more gone. If it turns hot and dry then will change but areas gone wont come back.
5. Seeding in late June what the heck one year in 100 and it was 2009.
6. Manitoba and Alberta even if its a bin burner wont cover loss in Sask acres don't add up to enough.
But probably realistically 12 million plus acres are affected.

[bigsteve]

One important fact to consider is that the areas that have the most unseeded acres are also the acres that normally grow the highest bushels/acre in the province!

[VK58]

Beleive me Manitoba has no bin burner, will be below average. Crop insurance manager called it a disaster this week,expected a high percentage of their policy holders to have some amount of claim

[LWeber]

Saskatchewan – 73% seeded - 9 million acres not seeded –
Another 6% flooded – 2 million

Alberta – 93% seeded – 1.8 million not seeded
Another 3% drowned out – 750,000

Manitoba – 90% seeded – 900,000 not seeded
Another 6% drowned out – 540,000

Not seeded 11.7 million acres
flooded/drowned – 3.29 million acres

Acres out of production as of this date = 14.99 million acres

[fjlip]

14.99 mil out of how many total acres available, less intentional summerfallow?

[cottonpicken]

Do you have a total production estimate larry?

[LWeber]

I've did some work on canola and that is the only one I'm comfortable with, CP.

I'm using just over 9.5 MMT. Most in the trade are at 11 MMT or higher thinking all the canola went in first because it was the most profitable.

When you got back through history, and use 1977, 1993 and 1999 ... yields were not out of the norm. Abandonment was from 5 to 6.5%. The challenge is the acres. STATSCAN won't get it right this week and will revise for the next 12 months.

The weather can still straighten out. SK Crop Insurance will have the best data - and the quickest numbers.

The kids and I watched CBC's 4 on 4 street hockey this weekend. Lots of rural teams. Lots of questions... lots of heartache: 7/40 quarters seeded...9/22 seeded. Many at 50% from just 50 miles east of Saskatoon up to Yorkton. And the last two weeks were just a hope and a prayer. Some didn't lay down fertilizer.

I'll tell you from the emails I'm getting, it isnt pretty out there.

For those of you in the west Central and NW areas with good lentil conditions, realize that the acreage shift has been to Regina, Weyburn and Moose Jaw areas now for the past 5 years. I'm not saying these areas don't count (well the NW doesn't) , but you do not carry the same weight you did 5 years ago. Ditto for NW SK and canola.

World weather patterns are erratic. I lived through the ice age is coming period in the 70's- so pls no climate change rhetoric from either side. Sunspot activity is returning - but so is La Nina. Going to be a long summer.

For those of you with friends that are less than 50% seeded; pick up the phone and give them a call - most need an ear. Hope that they would do the same for you if it were reversed.

[LWeber]

fjlip: I did those numbers just before I did BNN on Friday afternoon.

I'll find my worksheet and send you the #'s.

[sjc]

Too wet in Sask but getting very dry again here in Northern Alberta. Send that dam rain up here! I cant believe this cycle is totally turned around.

[fjlip]

Sjc the peace could have gladly taken 6 of these inches, you pay the freight. The f'ing jet stream STUCK for two months coming into Oregon and up into Canada is unbelievable, never happened before. Phillips said 8 rain events since April when one is about all we usually get! If it heads to you first we are normal. Better change dam soon for both our sakes.

[agstar77]

Estimates are useless , if the this trend continues. More flooding losses , more losses to wet feet ie. saturated soil, harvest problems? This is an unprecedented event covering such a wide area so early in the season.

[newguy]

Seems to be alot more than usual canola and lentils . Yes we are not the big yield acres on the average but this is not an average year. Not sure how much the other crops will be down around here but think there is less peas..durum..wheat and flax..Will be interesting on crop insurance numbers.. South Sask,... 30% unseeded..

[fjlip]

Oats could be down big time. The wettest areas is where it is normally seeded last. Never got to last. Manitoba losing acres of oats also.

[AdamSmith]

Well here in SW MB, of the 21 quarters that I normally seed I got 15 seeded, the six un seeded were all going to be canola. "Normally" canola does go in first but this year those were my wettest fields this spring and I was leaving them to last so they would dry out better. Ha!

Bought a used 4710 sprayer and had my 19 year old son run it this spring. He got stuck 17 times, once on the top of a hill, sheesh! (wouldn't have been so many had I put on bigger tires but I was cheap and thought we would be fine with the ones that were on it)

Guys were flying on canola, will grow, but their gonna have to get a floater out there to fert it, which will make a mega mess, bin there done that and dealt with the effects for three years after.

The earliest seeded stuff looks good (what isn't drownd out) but the later seeded stuff is suffering.

[checking]

Whatever the lowest seeded number is, it still isn't low enough to solve the real problem.