total production contest rules

[btjadenlepp]

Suggest we specify the rules for this
little contest, then post some
estimates, by a certain deadline, then
re-visit it in October.

You guys have only been talking about
Saskatchewan I think with your
estimates on the other string. It should
be total w. Canadian production.

And no %'s of normal, last year or
whatever. Do your homework and come up
with absolute figures.

When it comes to market price outcome,
crop-by-crop is more interesting than
'total crop' production: wheat, durum,
barley, oats, canola, peas, lentils,
flax. Estimates for harvested area and
yield required.

I will probably get in trouble with my
colleagues for sharing internal
estimates, but this is a game that set
up right I'd love to play. I'd suggest
Charlie be the judge, but that won't
work cause we want his numbers lined up
here too.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[bucket]

Don't trust statscan????

Why not put your numbers out?

And then wait for some others to put theirs out.

Seems you are looking for a marketing play out of this.

[wd9]

Good call bucket.

[gustgd]

Brenda
What's the prize?

[TOM4CWB]

Brenda;

You can't be serious!

total production for 2010?

1. What will rain do?

2. When will it freeze?

3. How many heat units for the rest of growing year... and where?

We are way behind in over 50% of western Canada... but unless you can accurately predict the above events...

[charliep]

Perhaps the ultimate goal should be price as this is the result
of both production (both ours and our competitors) and how
our customers respond in their buying patterns. The downside
is our customers are well aware of the situation in western
Canada (may be sticking their heads in the sand but unlikely)
and are taking steps to manage their risk which will include
sourcing from elsewhere. The Saudi wheat tender results will
be very interesting (will be known) given the winter shipping
position.

I'll be the first to admit I can't forecast the future. What I try to
do (having admitted this) is to forecast what is likely to happen
and the positive/negative consequences it may have. I can
then make decisions with some risk analysis to back up what I
need to do.

I suspect everyone here does that.

[btjadenlepp]

back off already, this wasn't my idea
remember. just thought it was a good one
and wanted to line it up to be fair.

if these estimates mattered to the
market, i wouldn't be sharing them
outside my company. if what you meant by
'marketing' was that i'm using this idea
to help promote my own research and
services, i am definitely guilty of
that. as a small business owner this
forum offers a good opportunity raise
brand awareness.

www.farmlinksolutions.ca

[btjadenlepp]

now for the fun part. farmlink's working
production estimates as of today:
- durum 3 mln t
- bly 7.7 mln t
- oats 2.9 mln t
- canola 9.6 mln t
- flax 617,000 t

still working on peas and wheat.

[boarderbloke]

charliep, you are right, the only need to establish production IS TO determine price. Crops may not all follow suit this year as certain ones play a bigger role in global inventories. Others might disappoint I'm afraid, ie. canola. Posted crush margines are dropping because seed is up and global veggie oil prices have changed little.

[charliep]

I always like to put the demand side to the numbers.

Durum at 3 MMT. Quality? Inventory will come down but not a
disaster unless is poor quality.

Barley at 7.7 MMT. Feed consumption 7.5 MMT ish. Wheat
quality/feed? Malt barley (domestic and export) - 2 MMT ish?
Disaster in the making on consumption side. Likely to import 1
to 2 MMT US corn plus DDG's.

Canola - 9.6 MMT. Not enough to meet core export demand
and domestic crush with with new capacity. Can the world have
40 cent per pound soybean oil and expensive canola?

[cottonpicken]

If you dont want to play dont play.Its just a fun
game.

Why the hell else are we here?

Winner gets 40 oz of their favorite booze from
me,and not the stuff that is locked up in a display
case.

I say percentages work as well as actual ten year
average production numbers(example durum -
30%)-keeps things simple.

If a change in the weather burns your estimates-
well you should be use to that happening
now,bescides in this game you can only gain-
bragging rights and a bottle

my guesstamites

durum:-60%
spring wheat:-35%
barley:-55%
canola:-15%
lentils:0%
oats:-60%
flax:-70%


anybody else wants to add rules and regulation fine
by me as long as its simplistic.

[charliep]

To be comparable, you need a source for your 10 year average. Can you agree on using table 3 of the 2008/09 CWB statistical summary
(western Canada)? You could use 3A as well. I also assume the production will be the final statistics Canada report.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/about/investor/annual/pdf/08-09/stats_english2008-09.pdf"]western Canada production[/URL]

[timm]

Farmlink r all sold on old crop and a fair amount of new on canola

[gustgd]

All numbers in 000 acres


Wheat 15,000
Durum 3,000
Oats 2,000
Barley 10,000
Rye 200
Flax 1,000
Canola 9,000
Lentils all classes 2,500

I'll keep it simple and take Wiser's deluxe Thanks for playing

[gustgd]

prices in $ bu. Nov. 2010 in the yard.
Wheat $5.0
Durum $5.0
Oats $3.0
Barley $3.50
Rye $5.00
Flax $13.0
Canola 10.50
Lentils all classes $22.00