Baltic dry index dropping

[jamesb]

The baltic dry index had really tanked the last month. Comments?

[gustgd]

The power of sinle desk?

[jamesb]

I was thinking more along the line that less commodities are being moved to lower this and is this a precurser to a downturn in the world economy again?

[charliep]

Not sure what a price premium is either in a commodity based bulk
handling system?

What do Canadian farmers do to justify someone paying a premium? As a
seed grower, you can meeting farmers agronomic and yield requirements.
Organic farmers can provide value to customers in meeting their
needs/desires. What does a conventional farmer do to justify a higher price
or premium if like?

If a western Canadian farmer does the right things to meet market needs,
will they be rewarded other than commodity based grade and protein
payments? Similar questions on the marketing side. Are their rewards in
trying to time sales during the year?

We can talk premium all we want but at the end of the day, a farmer
receives an average prices based on 15 to 18 months of commodity based
sales. Things like Japanese wheat sales are shared with everyone
regardless of grade - it is called single desk benefit by supporters. Single
desk/price differentiation also has a cost and that is shared with everyone.
The performance measure the CWB board of directors uses to judge
operations is their ability to achieve the best average price based on sales
pace during the whole year. Single desk and premium price is an
oxymoron.

To your other posting, the CWB has become more focused on managing its
own risk. All the changes mentioned were put put into place to do this.
The CWB does not manage farmers individual risk except by providing
opportunity for an average price. All programs and contracts are developed
with this concept in mind - single desk/price pooling first and most
important.

[cottonpicken]

Had not been following it but very important
news,thanks.

[cityguy]

So the pro-choice group define premium as a Canadian delivered elevator price being higher than a US delivered elevator price. The anti-choice group call a premium as being something better than a "world average" price, which will include high priced US values and cheap Russian/Ukraine/German/French/Argentine values.
Don't know what the US spring wheat carry out will be this year but let's say it's 250-300 milllion bushels out of 500 million production. The US will carry over 50-60% of their spring wheat crop. Given that sort of a carry out it's hard to claim they have "market clearing" values. Imagine if the Canadian canola crop was only 9 or 10 million tonnes and we carried over 4 to 6 million of it? Maybe what the CWB should do is accept X tonnes at a US type price - call it 5 million tonnes, then accept every next 1 million tonnes at $5.00 discount to the pool. Fact is the the US farmer chooses not to clear out his wheat at these prices. (and chances are the same is happening in Australia as thier carry out's are going to be growing, potentially to a record high level this year). Expecting the CWB to market the entire wheat crop, clean out the bins, all at a premium to US values is a pipedream. Of course, the easy answer is "let me do it myself and whether I can or can't is up to me". That's fine, but at the end of the day the CWB gets loaded up with wheat and are measured against an impossible goal. In the mean time the politicians - all of them - sit on the sidelines and don't let people run their own business, and leave rules and regulations in place that at best can be described as equally unfair.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

We have other examples of premium grains... that attach a 'premium' to the price paid.

Nexera... claims to be one... CSCO... specialty oil Canola. DO these crops actually pay a 'premium' when the base yield is lower? Marketing options and flexibility removed?

The CWB is no different.

The CWB has forgot that the risk they place upon my farm... COSTS real $$$.

Since there is no competition allowed... and the monopoly insures they place the maximum risk possible on my family farm, possible; the natural competitive advantage we had in growing wheat is eroded by the day.

The pool in the past spread and shared the risk... not increased uur risk.

The 'premium' service the CWB systems provided 'designated area' grain growers in recent years... has been caught up and extinguished by left wing politics.

[TOM4CWB]

Cityguy,

The real problem is simple.

Personal responsibility is the ONLY option for a rational marketing system. The claim that the 'single desk' extracts a premium is a hoax.

The only reason the CWB keeps chanting the hoax... is to justify the power it commands... which can not be ethically justified given the facts.

If the grain grower wants to hold wheat stocks in the 'designated area' they can. EXACTLY the same as the US grower in Montana.

The longer the CWB keeps spending my money... claiming they will pull a rabbit from their hat... when any sane grain grower can see only the rabbit droppings... come out...

The more offended commercial growers become!

[Choice2U]

Typical socialist/communist attitude "What is yours is ours".

[TOM4CWB]

Jamesb,

"The Baltic Panamax Index climbed slightly from last week, closing Friday 65 points higher from a week ago, at 3,045. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index stood at 560.8 on Friday, its lowest point since mid-April. Maritime’s index stood at over a one-year high earlier this month, but the index has lost ground due to slowing demand for coal and iron ore in Asia."

http://www.uswheat.org/reports/prices/doc/48E3C9BC1FC723CD8525774D0070FC74?OpenDocument#

If you open the excel spread sheet look under freight and currencies for ocean rates.

Why doesn't the CWB share this kind of Info with us?

It is clear where the clear market transparency originates... and who has to hide what they do!

[cityguy]

When all is said and done I don't get it. You have a perfectly rational argument that says you know what's best for your situation. You have an argument that probably recoginizes that the world market can't absord all of the Canadian exports at US equivalent prices, but that if Canadian prices do slip to a point that people aren't prepared to sell, then that should be their choice. The CWB is a politically created institution and there are conservative governements in Alberta,Saskatchewan, and Ottawa, yet no one changes the institution. Guess the question is why aren't there more people / votes forcing the governments to change the institution. Politicians will simply follow where the votes are. No one in eastern Canada cares about the issue so what are the western politicians scared of.

[parsley]

Yes, cityguy, that is the question I asked myself quite some years ago, and went a-hunting.

So you tell me, with all these stars aligned for lighting up the path of marketing choice in the West, what could possibly be the cause of feet dragging?

Yes, well. Pars

[cottonpicken]

In all the confusion i cant remember if i fired five
shots or six,any reverence to ****ry imports being one
of our "guys".

[cityguy]

I'll ask a dumb question. There are directors elections coming up in the fall. Is there going to be the typical one anit-choice person and 5 pro-choice all running off against each other. Why can't the pro-choice side at least agree to run only one person? and don't get into whether or not the election is a farce etc. Even if it is it's probably the quickest route to change if managed properly.

[parsley]

"hunting" in obscure financial records can highlight some very strange and unusual alliances and relationships.