Durum Market

[Mjolnir]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the durum market
is going to be like in the upcoming year?
Did we lose enough acreage to the low price and
weather to increase demand/price?

[dave4441]

I think the biggest problem is that if demand is same as current crop year, and in this year we only shipped 50% of our durum stocks, we will still need another year to get the market moving. Or need issues with north african harvest/crop in April/May. Looks like 2011 will be the year to bet on durum and supplies for 2010/11 should get pretty low.

[jhurkot]

I'll let you know as soon as we finish selling what
we grew in 2008.

[charliep]

Big durum carryover plus more acres in the US. Would watch the quality and protein side however. Premium markets want 1/2CWAD with 13 percent protein.

[cityguy]

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/searchLDPRates?jscript=on

think this gets you to the daily LDP page for durum . Today's posted county price for durum in ward county is $3.20/bushel which makes the LDP worth $2.88. Will be interesting to see what USDA says durum acres are on Wednesday as the market isn't assuming much of an increase over the March acres which would keep them well under last year's acreage base.

[cityguy]

hate to say it, but also noticed there is now a 39 cent LDP available on spring wheat basis a $3.28 PCP.

[newguy]

CWB thinks there is 50% of what was contracted last fall still in the bins.. I think alot of durum has found markets off board. Do not know if our price will be great but I bet we will be able to sell 100% next year..

[Jagfarms]

We can decide if we want to sell 09 durum into the
2010 pool. I think I am going to go for it. I have
not sold my last 20% of the A series yet and I have
to haul my B series in. I think we have until the
end of June to decide what we want to do. I think
there is more of chance of an upside to the market
in 2010. I will have to pay the $5 tonne fee and
wait an extra year to get the money but I am
thinking it will be worth the wait.

What are other Durum farmers thoughts on this?

[TOM4CWB]

Jag,

I see the CWB has the $ per t charge up to $5.50/t.

Good thing this proceedure is so simple:

'Settling current crop year deliveries in the next crop year

Farmers and landlords who want to price their 2009-10 deliveries of wheat or durum into the 2010-11 pool must complete and submit a 2009-10 New pool pricing sign-up application between February 26 and June 30, 2010. Every farmer or landlord who wants to price their grain into the 2010-11 pool must complete their own New pool pricing sign-up application.

For wheat and durum, there is a per-tonne fee, a $25 administration fee, and an advance notice requirement for farmers or landlords who deliver in the current crop year and then choose the following crop year's pool return. The per-tonne fee for wheat is different for each class. The CWB will deduct the program fees from any future payments owing from the CWB to the farmer or landlord. To pay by Visa, MasterCard, or American Express, farmers or landlords can call 1-800-275-4292, with their credit card number and expiry date.

Switching grain from one year to the next creates uncertainty regarding pool size and affects the pool returns of both the old and new crop years. The per-tonne fee offsets these impacts and is regularly updated to reflect changes in the Pool Return Outlook (PRO) and market conditions. This fee is calculated based on the difference between the old and new crop year PRO, current average sales values and risk.

If deliveries exceed the tonnes indicated on the New pool pricing sign-up application, farmers or landlords will be charged the highest per-tonne fee posted between February 26 and June 30, 2010, plus liquidated damages ranging from $6 to $25 per tonne. If 2009-10 deliveries are priced in the 2010-11 crop year and the CWB has not received a completed New pool pricing sign-up application, the farmer or landlord delivering will be assessed the highest per-tonne fee that was posted between February 26 and June 30, 2010, plus liquidated damages ranging from $6 to $25 per tonne. If farmers choose to settle their grain in the current crop year after completing the New pool pricing sign-up application, the program fees will not be refunded and there are no additional costs.

Farmers or landlords can sign up by:

faxing the application to 204-983-8031
calling 1-800-275-4292 with their CWB 10-digit identification number and PIN
contacting their grain company representative who can fax the form in; the farmer’s or landlord’s signature must be on the form
Grain eligible for new pool pricing

To be eligible for new pool pricing, farmers or landlords must have one of the following CWB 2009-10 wheat or durum delivery contracts:

Series contract
Guaranteed Delivery Contract (GDC) - except for 2010-11 Churchill or Wheat Storage Program
Identity Preserved Contract Program (IPCP) contract
GrainFlo contract (Period 3 and Period 4 only)
GrainFlo Period 3 and Period 4 participants are eligible to participate in the new pool pricing program.

producers are responsible for any grain storage charges incurred at the elevator
producers who choose to store their grain must provide the CWB with a copy of their storage ticket(s). To avoid liquidated damages, we must receive the storage tickets before the delivery period expiry date. Storage tickets can be faxed to (204) 983-8031, attention Farmer Registration and Delivery Programs.
for GrainFlo Period 3, the delivery period ends on April 30, 2010; for GrainFlo Period 4, the delivery period ends on June 30, 2010.
if a producer chooses to price their grain into the 2010-11 pool, they will not receive a storage payment until September, after cash tickets are reported to us.
Selected Barley Storage and Delivery Contract, CashPlus and feed barley contracts are not eligible for new pool pricing.

Do not use the New pool pricing sign-up application if the grain was committed to either a 2010-11 Churchill storage contract or a 2010-11 Wheat Storage Program contract.

Grain delivered in 2009-10 and priced in 2010-11 cannot be settled against a 2010-11 Fixed Price Contract (FPC), Basis Price Contract (BPC) or FlexPro contract.

Please call the CWB at 1-800-275-4292 for additional information'

WOW... what a deal.

Who gets all the $$$?

[wmoebis]

I don't think that it realy matters what year you sell into. The market is not paying above cost of production anyways. Do we lose money this year or next?

If (7000) farmers are producing 85% of the grain (all grains not just cwb grains) until THEY quit selling below the cost of production the prices are going to stay low.

The gov't of Canada guarentees the initial price for board grains. IF they care about agriculture in Canada they have to set that price at above the cost of production. Then if the world doesn't pay that price they pick up the tab. The Gov't of Canada are the ones that signed all these BS trade agreements that only Canada sticks to. Everyone else subsidizes thier farmers. BS. if this is the kind of deals our politians make on our behalf "Please stop helping us". I cringe every time Harper and Ritz brag about making anouther trade deal on the behalf of Canadian farmers. You know we just took another long hard one.

Even in an open market the price of grain (all Grain) is not high enough. We are getting less than we got 30 years ago. Voting with your drill doesn't work vote with your pen. Don't sign any contracts below the cost of production. (7000) farmers that obviously are not using money from farm income, because we are losing money on every commodity, are keeping the prices on all commodities down by agreeing to sell below the cost of production. They obviously want the other 15%.

If you are one of the (7000) farmers it doesn't matter what you do. If not It doesn't matter what you do. Take your choise.

[TOM4CWB]

Jag and co.;

How much will it actually cost to switch to the 10-11 Pool year?

I can not understand how we got down to $3.50/bu [#2 13px] farm gate for 2009-10 CWB pool.

If this is a 'premium' price average for the whole crop year... how cheap did the CWB actually sell the majority of the crop at? $2.50/bu farm gate?

[furrowtickler]

Good point Tom, they gave away a huge chunk of 09/10 wht in every catagory.

[JoeyPotato]

wmoebis,

I couldn't disagree more. Free trade is what keeps our industry competitive. The only crops showing neg returns are the communist controlled cwb crops. Everything on the free market pecinls a profit, if a crop can be grown. Some crops show a much larger profit than others, eg. letntils vs feed barley, but a profit still the same.

I do not want to be a subsidized farmer, working for a chq from the government.

Emergency aid is always needed when a disaster strikes, but free trade and a open market is always the preferred solution when compared to a EU type of subistized farm system.

The conservatives signed more bi-lateral free trade agreements in there first term than the liberals did in 3 terms combined. I say go Ritz go. Keep doing what your doing. Let the market sort out the rest. It will soon realize how much crop has been lost and we will see a increase in price. The market is never wrong, sometimes just delayed in coming to the right decision.

My 2c.

[checking]

JP. Good on you for not wanting to be a subsidized farmer.

Wmoebis. Good on you for not selling below the cost of production.

Me. I'm staying the course.

I want a hit it out of the park, unapologetic homerun. I want to make a bloody killing that is an obscene amount of profit for my grain.

What I won't accept is a cost of production. What I won't accept is a few cents above cost of production. What I won't accept is a target price, like the big white X on the back of a flaming red shirt preceded by drums announcing my location to be picked off.

[wmoebis]

Joey, I won't disagree with you. All I am saying is if 7000 farmers refused to sign the "A" CWB contract. Not one tonne, that would send the word to WPG and Ottawa pretty dam clear. We are losing money on wht and durum and malt barley any how. If 7000 farmers refused to sell peas for $4 or $5 a bus that would tell the market place what we wanted and deserve.

I don't believe they would ever do that because they want they other 15% to get out so they can get bigger and they can do this by keeping the prices low. Once they have them out they will start working on they smallest of the 7000 then 5000 then 3000 pretty soon it will be all the likes of One Earth farms. Large corporate farms.

I have less CWB crops seeded this year than ever before and I increased my seeded acreage besides. I made a statement on the PRICE of SPR WHT and durum with my drill. I don't care if it is the CWB or open market I don't like the price. The price was higher in the 70's why, because when we didn't like the price we increased our cattle or hogs, fed more at home grew more non traditional crops like flax or summer fallowed more, rather than seeding stubble crops, until the price came back to us. Instead what are we doing today? Grow more fill the bins. Then listen to guys like De Putter telling us to sell at rock bottom prices, dump it to make way for a bigger crop. Buy more fert grow more, get more efficiant get more land.

Show me even one market in the world that can or will take all western Canada's production and give us the returns that we saw in the 70's (almost 40 years ago) then add on inflation to catch up to the times. Further more would they maintain that price? If those markets are out there why aren't accredited exporters jumping all over them? Why aren't the pea and lentil guys getting them for us? These are likely our free trade partners of the future and they aren't getting it for us and the CWB isn't getting it for us. Why because 7000 farmers are willing to sell 85% of the crop at or below the cost of production.

Maybe, Joey you would refuse to sign the "A" contract to make a statement on the price or the CWB if you will, but would the other 6999? No, because maybe they want you out too.

As far as Ritz goes, read Agriculture trade mission to Mexico "Jan 2010" then read Hursh's comentary today. What did he promise them to get them so pissed in 5 months? Things were fine till he went there.

My buck 5 80