Agristability

[Hopperbin]

You raise valid points, sewen, but remember, mulitple decisions like that are hard on reference margins and therefore assistance will be less.

Rest assured, because this happened in 2009 and production was strong by most operators, it won't trigger payments because of this influence.

[Hopperbin]

by the way if you bought expensive fertilizer Sask.99 then that is put toward your 2010 crop, you do put it toward your 2010 agristablility don't you? :-))

[Hopperbin]

If it was bought in 2009 for 2010 you would be right hopper. But this was bought in august 2008 for 2009's crop and when fertilizer as very high.

We have always brought in fertilzer in the summer/early fall for the following years crop. In the summer of 2008 is when things went nuts and we applied about 2/3 of the NH3 in that fall at about 78cents.thank god we didn't bite on the balance or the high price phos.

Last summer we bought NH3 at 26 cents and brought in phos at $400. This becomes the prepaid for the 2009 y/e.

In the long run, by doing this for years I fell we still average out ahead. Its only in 2008 that the summer price was ever the high for as long as I can remember.

[sewen]

True Hopperbin that is what agristability is, just don't mention it to your city friends.

[parsley]

Aagristability.

Yes well, over the years, program after program has been ushered in, with the governments along with their hand-picked farmer "advisor" mantra-ing the same tune: ""We're gonna get it right this time."

It's amusing at times, but most of the time it's sad. Sad because the government often is on a vote buying mission, and hunting for patsies to keep the cost of living down; and then there are the farmers, who are are fishing for free money, poised to bite.

What sinks every program is the "equality" factor.

The main concern, you've noticed, is that one farmer worries the other is getting more. And in a free market system, one farmer does indeed get more than the other. A fancier tractor. A new sprayer. A trip. A beautiful woman. A smart kid. Oil. Or a shack in the bush with no electricity because he wants it.

If you just sat back and re-read how the green eyed monster keeps popping up in AV threads, it makes one realize that too many farmers are pure socialists at heart. It doesn't seem to matter how small the margins are.....as long as someone else isn't getting more.

There will never be a program to satisify those who want to beg for yearly subsidies for a living. And as much as you try to justify your deservation, your desperation, your comparisons, ...your requests and actions describe socialism. Pars

[checking]

I like your fishing and sinking talk on capitalism and socialism.

It reminds me of the old university way where every student had to take a swimming course.

Lesson one was sink or swim, or at least keep your mouth above water. It was a capitalist test, I believe. It involved jumping into the deep end of the pool. The capitalists made it to shore on their own, somehow.

If you floundered, and started going down, the instructor rammed a long socialist pole into your gut. The aware ones grabbed it, and were fished out, but at least they experienced what risk was all about.

Those that didn't grab tended to accumulate into a pile at the bottom of the pool. Even with help, they weren't destined to succeed.

Now, I'm afraid that the old pile has gotten so large that all the new recruits into swimming have learned to simply sit at the surface astride the pile. There is no risk of failure. Just sit and wait for the aid package to come rescue you.

That's my tutorial for today.

[tipsy]

Cais and Agristability for a business risk,or margin stabilizing program, has been a total failure for our 93 year old farm. After years of anxiety, frustration and continuing to lose farm equity,we finally had enough and just opt out.
If your farm is looking for agstab to be the saviour or carry your farm Thur this year I wish you all the best of luck.
BTW is it correct that 80% of Ontario farmers do not participate in these program's, because, like my farm the two programs were-are poor one sided (I carry 80-85% of loss, cais and agstab carry 10-15%) business partners?
Fact is one could draw a lot of parallels between these two programs and the cwb in how they have successfully failed the farm community,but, that's another story for another day.

[parsley]

Actually, tipsy, it's not a story for another day. It's a continuation of governments' ag story that conducts the performance of both the CWB and subsidy programs.

Both are goldmines for accountants and are designed for their fingers. It's no accident. Every farmers' information is a goldmine, and accountants, imho, are able to "help out", for a small fee, of course, so many strugggling multinationals with a little bit of info. tic Pars

[bucket]

checking and parsley

You are right about the envy and the capitalist/socialist thing.

The problem is how to compete with other nations that support their farmers heavily to stay in business.

Take durum for an example. The US farmer will make more from the government payment than the canadian farmer will for being forced to sell his crop to the cwb.

I beleive that durum has a tremendous upside this year but the returns will not be realized because the cwb has this idea they have a 2 year supply of it.

But can canadian farmers compete against the ldp durum program?

They could grow other crops but then what does that do for the other crop market prospects?

We could all go organic, which canada was basically when we were still 50/50, but what would that do to parsleys returns.

A perfect example of this is the hay market this year. Excellent prospects for a great hay crop but the returns will be shitty.

Do I believe I could farm without government support. Yes in every year except for a 1 in 500 year rain event.

And the auto companies have proven they could have survived without government support as well even with a bunch of incompetent managers. But the government felt compelled to help them out.

[parsley]

FORD

Their auto sales bottom line is really good, compared to GM, and growing, reflecting the no-handouts stand they took last year, right?.

I have found bucket, that the people who survive, the ones left standing, is not because they are canoodling another penny, or forcing themselves in the market, or lobbying for a handout, but it is because OTHERS SEE THE WORTH OF THEM, the true worth to society, and make it a point to support those people, with good will, with support, and with their buying dollars.

Doing the right thing always pays off.

Cooking/food growing/wine in regions of France has survived because of QUALITY, because they are passionate about being the best foodies they can be, and they are paid well for their efforts.

Too many Canadian farmers view their vocation as a right. I knew a plumber who would disagree. I know a banker who would disagree. I know an pipelliner who would disagree...... Pars