Denial, denial, denial

[charliep]

For what is worth, the study showed there was less relationship
between size and yield (acres between 2,000 and 14,000) than there
was within individual size categories. Putting another, there is as much
yield variability in farms between 2,000 and 3,000 acres as there is
between 2,000 acres and 10,000 acre ones.

Similarly, comments could made on machinery investment on a per
acre basis.

[vvalk]

Furrow. I get sprayed out by smaller farmers more often the large ones. Also large farms are at a huge disadvantage when it comes to govt payouts since most programs are capped. Take agri invest for example. The cap is $22500 so with govt portion thats $45000. Well it wouls take a large farm 10 years to have any sort of account where it could offset a 15% reduction in margin.

[Jay-mo]

Who would decide how much production is allowed?
I think the market does a decent job of limiting or encouraging production. It may not be perfect but it's alot better then having some NFU hack decide for us.

If you don't like being subject to overproduction then bypass the "market" and grow organic crops or some other niche crop.

If farmers are stupid enough to keep growing something that loses money the market will discipline them. Then Ritchie Bros. makes money and we all have an auction to go to in April.

[furrowtickler]

vvalk, you are right on gov't programs, but custom sprayers and those that spray regardless of conditions seem to cause most drifting problems here. They need to cover as many acres as they can and it is unfortunate damage occurs when you can't wait a day for the wind or conditions to change for the sake of the field next door. All drifting problems here are caused by the above or by those that refuse to invest in good drift control nozzels(these may be your smaller farms?).
Any way no one needs to be offended by this farm size thing it is just a fact of life as farm size increases more risks must be taken in adverse conditions to cover that dirt. Time management becomes stretched to the limit.
By the way we had a chat with the guys this morning and they seem to be very good about it so far, they know they maybe should not have been spraying.

[checking]

Not much time right now but

My first thought is that I've yet to see anyone challenge the "750 billion dollars of farm production over the past 25 years and not a penny directly made from that production by farmers"

If that is a true statement; then all the layers of rose colored glasses can't hide the fact that the average farm never was sustainable on its own. It also is more than a coincidence that very large farms have taken over. Given the average age of farmers practically increases by one year; after the passage of each additional year; there are future changes yet to come.
More comments tonight

[countryguy]

Has anyone ever bothered to look at how the oil industry operates? It is not through increased production or lowest cost of production is it?

[bucket]

Based on cost of production. If a well isn't making money the oil company will shut it off until better prices come back. And don't mention the huge tax concessions they get just to prove up a resrve of oil.

[Hopperbin]

Country guy one thing for sure if all industries operate like we do our country would be comparable to some other country that are basically in receivership.
My fear is that the more we rely on gov't handouts the more things will never change for the better. Parsley will agree that we are producing for a market that really does not want our product. Charlie states that Canola is our success story as production is increasing and there are profits to be made.
Lets take a look at our immigrants coming to our country, are they eating the foods we produce? Not really. As a country we are even eating less of our own production. WE HAVE A PROBLEM.
We cannot ship out the immigrants so we need to I think develop some new end use products. I just been introduced to some green peas from China roasted with some sweatenner coating and some sort of hot spicy something on them. They are addicting. We need to make more of this new stuff here. Who knows where this green pea come from to make this stuff possibly even Canada. Unless we value add our crops at home we will have problems. We should be noted for our clean climate.

[freewheat]

hopper those are OUR marrowfats! Yummy, though some are almost akin to gasoline....

[charliep]

On the oil comments, crude oil is no different than crops - a
commodity. In fact, they are tied together at the hip. Otherwise,
crude prices would still be over $100/barrel.

Winter 2007/08 - Crude oil - $140/barrel. Corn - $7/bu. Soybean
oil - 70 cents/lb.

Today - Crude oil - $72/barrel. Corn - $3.60/bu. Soybean oil- 36
cents/lb.

Part of our pain is the loonie is resource based currency. The
stronger crude oil prices are, the higher the value of the loonie and
relatively lower the value of our crops versus the US.

[charliep]

The marrowfat peas are wasabi flavored - horse radish. Some flavor
as the dipping sauce for sushi. There may be other flavors. They eat
them at baseball games in Japan the same way we eat peanuts. Also
goes well with beer. Well, maybe an acquired taste.

[oneoff]

There was a question about overproduction. Surely it isn't either smart or economically rewarding to any producer (or their peers) to sell at disgusting obcenely low prices just for the sake of freeing up bin space in order to continue to produce those burdensome supplies. Yet, that is what happpens too frequently.

The answer in those cases should be to pick one, or more of the following possibilities. Either dump the excess in the middle of the ocean until the demand causes prices to rise well above the cost of production; or give the excess to some unfortunate soul who never could have had access (even at depressed prices); or create some market demand for additional supplies; or withhold supplies in a way that the market fully realizes that those goods just aren't in the inventory that the expects it can get. When shortages differ from burdensome supplies buy less than 15%; why isn't it a no brainer to restrain oneself (and save some money too) by being able to get decent prices on the other 85 % Should be nuff said.
Again; who can't remember 9 cent hogs; worthless cows; and severely depressed grain prices. Why wasn't shooting the animals and maybe donating to food banks used as a solution? Why do the bins get cleared out come July so they can be filled with grains that cost more to produce than the bin clearouts brought.
Finally; who will challenge the NFU analysis about 750 billion from 25 years of production; but no direct profits on that production. If true; all the excuses; praise for our system etc. etc. are the most misguided lies that have ever been repeated.
Remember; when selling at a loss; you can never make a profit on volume.
Or for those who remember the Rafferty-Alameda project's concluding statement
The cost to benefit ratio is less than unity; but when the factors that can not be "quantified" are taken into account; then the project is well worth proceeding with.
Just proves that everything can be sold with practically no valid arguments. It certainly doesn't necessarily mean that a person has the first clue about what they are supposedly talking about.

[wmoebis]

The dif on oil as I see it is.

The oil company drills the well(seeds it), pumps the oil (grows and harvest it), refines it (manufactures it) , sell it at his price (markets it). All the while reading the meters to tell us how much of what grade he is producing (quality contol) so he can pay royalties on his readings Sets his rent/Payments). Sets the retail price. Sells his byproducts for large profits(dockage).
Hense he: produces/manufactures/ships/retails and sets price every step along the way. Sweet deal!

[cottonpicken]

Free market capatilism theory,is a tough pill to
swallow until you see all the benefits.

The market itself can level the field,create and
eliminate efficiences and make everyone richer in
the end.

If toilet paper was controlled and regulated so you
had to pay more because in tim buk to the people
said they wanted supply controlled to maintain their
inifficent system would anyone say....good idea?

Producing grain doesnt make you special-and
guess what,its your job to produce as much
possible,as cheap as possible,without going belly
up.

But....our system is not anywhere near free market
orrientated,we are controlled and manipulated,that
is why you have to take what you can from b.s
government subsides etc,etc

So back to the trough pig,and be thankful your not
like the majority of farmers in the world who live on
a few bucks a day.

[oneoff]

We all seem to start off preaching the free market capitalism line; and before the end we seem to be saying that it doesn't work. Sure hasn't seemed to work for 25 plus years for farmers. Still no one has made a peep about the NFU analysis. I guess everyone must be afraid of the truth.
I believe free enterprise works very well for the agriculture industry and does so largely at the expense of farmers.