Yes Charlie over all the math is the same but very different for individual Farmers, some are going to win big time and some are going to simply have very little to sell for a decent price.
lesm - I wouldn't necessarily call what you are doing a strategy, luck is probably more apropriate.
I would be willing to guess that if 18 million acres of Canola were seeded and the crop was looking like a strong average crop you wouldnt be bragging about your "strategy".... but good for you you lucked out now don't do something stupid and sell it for under $400 sometime in the future.
About going long futures.... Are you so sure??? know a couple guys that went long the day a couple days after the Aug 20th frost in 04 and yes the Market went up and within a month or 2 had droped $2 per bushel, that hurts.
So my advice would be dont go long if you cant afford to loose $50 - $100 a tonne.
lesm, I know lots of guys that have tonnes of bin capacity and good cahflow, sometimes having that ability can pay of well for you in the long run.
lesm - I wouldn't necessarily call what you are doing a strategy, luck is probably more apropriate.
I would be willing to guess that if 18 million acres of Canola were seeded and the crop was looking like a strong average crop you wouldnt be bragging about your "strategy".... but good for you you lucked out now don't do something stupid and sell it for under $400 sometime in the future.About going long futures.... Are you so sure??? know a couple guys that went long the day a couple days after the Aug 20th frost in 04 and yes the Market went up and within a month or 2 had droped $2 per bushel, that hurts.
So my advice would be dont go long if you cant afford to loose $50 - $100 a tonne.
lesm, I know lots of guys that have tonnes of bin capacity and good cahflow, sometimes having that ability can pay of well for you in the long run.
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