Western Sask/Alberta Canola Crop

[ado089]

I drove down to Calgary on the weekend. From Saskatoon to Hanah the canola looks great. It thick, lush and in full bloom and there is more canola than I have ever seen through there. Everything from the Red Deer River west looks good too. It's a little further behind and beleive it or not it could use a rain. Lots of pivots turning near Strathmore, but it was raining on Sunday when I left. I will be intresting to see how production shakes out, though we have lost our typical high production areas it looks like the non traditional areas like kindersley and Oyen are set up nice for 50bu/ac yields. With NW sask and the Hwy 2 corridor in Alberta coming in with average to maybe a little above average crops there could still be pretty average canola production this year???

[jensend]

with the seed technology of the last ten or fifteen years the non-traditional areas are outyielding what the real canola areas yielded ten years ago.

[SASKFARMER3]

Good one boys but realically you'll need 80 plus to get an average crop so just sit back wait thank god your not getting this shit and you will be rewarded sell early and you'll loose.

[northfarmer]

Central and south peace has not had significant rain event since May long...only locallized showers and storms....cutworm damage, lots of lygus and sings of diamond back....some fields in full bloom, others spotty blooming and aborted budding from stress, 30 heat in forecast with windy weather last while and now.....this crops is set to go backwards, this is canola country typically produces as much as 10 % of canadian crop, Manning North in good shape from reports....third year in a row for us with no rain of any consequence in June

[ado089]

Saskfarmer3,

We've more or less been in a 5 year drought in the NW, now things actualy look pretty good and the crop is at a point where it can take an inch of rain per week without any negative impact. The NW is every bit as productive as the SE so all we are seeing is a shift as to where crops are looking good. Secondly farming practices are generaly more progressive through the west than they are in the east. Let's face it there are still alot of farmers around Canora, Kamsack area that still haven't changed the way they farm since 1975. Now I will give it to you that this has been changing rapidly over the last few years with the efforts of farmers edge and Hudye's and Agritrend. The reality of Canola production is that land has been trading over $800/ac for at least 10 years in the NW where as not long ago you could get good quarters of land in the Kamsack, Canora area for under $75,00/quarter, those land prices are all based on Canola production. Now I know this has changed but because the sky is falling in Kamsack doesn't mean that all canola production has come to an end in western Canada. I have no doubt that production will be down this year, what I am questioning is by how much considering the steady production in the Hwy 2 corridor and Swan Valley, the return of good growing conditions to NW sask and NE Ab, the significant increase likely to come out of west central SK and likely little change out of the Peace region due to two years of drought.

Just keep in mind that the last 2 years of exceptionaly good crops in the SE have not been shared by all, in the same way that the hardship, that I don't wish on anyone, you are experiencing this year.

[tmyrfield]

to "much ado about nothing"
would oil revenues have anything to do with the land values in your area? yeah I thought not.
you look down your nose at us out here in the NE and laugh at our backward ways. A lot of highly capitalized farmers have moved into the area to show us how to farm. after a few years of wet springs, early frosts and late falls they have quietly left with their tails between their legs driving a leased 1/2 ton. Good luck to you, sincerely.

[ado089]

Sorry there is no oil within 80 miles. I also was not comenting on management, I was commenting on production. You know what? I would rather farm with a lower overhead and reduced inputs and the still have the same or higher returns. That was the reality in east central sask until recently and you are right expensive machinery and high inputs and land values don't make you a good farmer, but they do indicate the production levels of an area. I can see how my comments may be taken the wrong way but it does no one any good to ignore the practices and production values in these areas when it comes to having a discusion in about the effects of a shitty situation like this year is for many of you.

[ado089]

The other point I was trying to make is that people are able to and quite capable of growing canola outside of SE sask. Infact many areas like the Hwy 2 corridor and Swan Valley consitenly get yields 40-50% better then us smucks in the in NW and SE sask.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ill give your comments one plus, yes the swan valley does usually produce awesome crops. Now the rest of your BS.
One we have been direct seeding since oh lets say 20 some years or more. Second the west is more progressive, Yea that's a good one a buddy from Rosetown was so proud of his article a few years ago about direct seeding benefits, Ah I phoned him saying that's old news. 3 I worked your area no big woop. Sorry.
Finally if you honestly believe that area can produce enough product to make up the loss coming from Moosejaw to weyburn to Winterpeg up to Dauphin over to melfort Pa and Down to Moosejaw then man Send what your smoking my way because its got to be good stuff.
God your Amzaing.

[ado089]

I'm not saying that production will replace what is lost east of Saskatoon. What I'm saying is that there were at least 4 million acres of good canola growing acres that were flat out lost due to drought last year and probably another 3 million of marginal canola growing acres suffering the same problem. This year those areas are looking pretty good if not exceptional. I also wasn't reffering to Rosetown as good canola country, I was talking about Rosthern, Battleford, Paradise Hill, Lloy, Vermillion, Unity, Hafford, Camrose. Take a look at soil zone map, there's as much if not more black and dark black soil west of Saskatoon as there is east. Just like the late 80's in your neck of the woods we have just come out of 5 years of less than 50% typical rainfall. Just because you came out of two ideal years doesn't make you king of canola. You can't just compare what you see out your window from year to year to guage what is happening across the prairies. I don't know the answer to the production question but I do know you are selling us short of what we are capable of growing in the NW and AB.

[ado089]

I know that saying farming isn't as progressive out east is ignorant but it's no more ignorant than saying that productive agriculture ends at Foam Lake. I appologize to those of you who are good farmers, including SF3, that I offended but damn there's nothing so special about that area compared to many others in western canada. Infact if someone gave me my choice of 3500 acres anywhere in western canada it would be Cheadle Alberta or Swan River, not Battleford or Kamsack.

[SASKFARMER3]

I wasn't saying NW Sask Yes It grows its share of Canola and very Well. But you had some sort of a crop their last year didn't you. Yes it was a bitch to harvest but a good average crop. Some spoiled but an average. What I am saying is their is no way in hell that this years canola crop is going to come close to what happened last year or the year before. No I'm not selling it short but mathematically when you have area not seeded that is huge and getting bigger. Crop doesn't come back where it drowns out and also where it wasn't seeded. Therefore I believe were in for one small crop. But hey we can always hope the rest of you do pull off a bin burner were farmers we should hope for great things to others.
Good luck on your excellent crop wouldn't change where I farm for anything just this year really sucks the big one with all rain and then the damn hail. Looked at crop today found two more that got toasted. TAKE OUT HAIL INSURANCE. LOTS.