Western Sask/Alberta Canola Crop

[skhadenuf]

No frickin way 28 bushels and no fricken way 13 million acres. the acres in manitoba are mostly toast as in not harvestable, canola here in central sask gone down hill with every inch that comes every 3rd day.
13 million is way too high to start but let's assume it is 13,15 to 25% will be worked down as soon as the tractors can go on it. The rest the little bit bolting is a pissy ass 2 inch wide plant about 8 inches high all purple and yellow. The average yield if there is no more loss will be about 15 bushels that's if you get your 40 or 50 over there. And what is with Saskatoon everyone I talked to said the crop there is the shits? Guys up at Melfort area had fields where 35 % not established the remainder apprasied at 4 bushel to the acre, some fields total not established.

The thing holding on and looking really good actually fantastic are the canary seed crops seeded early and alot more acres than I thought, lentils that guys tried for first time looking great unbelievable considering the wet I thought they were supposed to be so hard to grow, hardly any peas anywhere and the ones around here are the shits yellow and stunted, wheat are good the early ones but not later ones, barley is a total write-off, not any oats anywhere around here anyways few flax fields look terrible half drowned out.

[SASKFARMER3]

Ok to some of you Albertans that don't get it I will try to explain slowly so you do.
1. Last year you seeded all acres you intended to seed. Right Then on July 3 to 9th it finally rained I was in Calgary and Edmonton and saw it. Rain makes grain yes when the crop is sitting their just about dying once it gets a good drink wow can it grow.
2. Sask this year TO MUCH RAIN seed in Bags in shed not ground. Seed now back at Seed company shed. Rain every three days now or Every other Day. Not just spit 1/2 to 3 inch rains. Crop seeded now dying or gone.
3. Manitoba got crop in but then the Rain came RAIN RAIN SUNNY RAIN SUNNY SUNNY TORENTIAL RAIN. That's a typical week since it started. New plant that's 2 to 4 inches tall flowering with lovely purple leaves.
Oh yea go north in Alberta the Peace needs moisture bad we would send it if we could but only one big guy can do that.
So That's whats happening. Now explain again how your going to get 80 plus an acre to offset this loss.

[furrowtickler]

O.K., lets try this, 12 mill/ac
6 mill @ 35 bus ave - in the west
6 mill @ 20 bus ave - in the east
That leaves 27.5 bus/ac on 12 mill ac
I could be wrong, just throwin numbers out.

[cottonpicken]

Went to the ritchie bros yard at roleau,that area is
completly srewed.

Anybody going to that auction tommorow ?

[skhadenuf]

furrow, it depends somewhat on what acres we are talking about, if we are talking about all acres including drowned out and acres that crop insurance has started to write-off then the average will be lower acres seeded considered higher, if we are looking at acres that only will be harvested then average yield higher but acres down substantially. There are no 20 bushel canola crops average in our neck of the woods, after 3.5 inches again this week I think there will be a bunch more worked down if and when the tractors can go. That's just my opinion also.
SF3 is right also we are way way behind in terms of development, there is a better than average chance that with a august 25 frost 75% of what is left will be toast not even flowering yet. most of those yellow fields are fields of volunteer canola and wild mustard from last year too wet to spray out this year.

[furrowtickler]

I am thinkin harvested acres western Can, too high? Or too early to make such a guess givin the ongoing conditions?

[skhadenuf]

You're right furrow, too early to know, some is obviously toast, but for example what part of the fields will farmers work out, will they leave the 4 bushel/ acre appraised fields because that is about 30 bucks an acre hit to absorb if they till it out or will they leave it to harvest and possibly with more rain or frost get their 0 production off those acres. that reminds me that is something that needs to be improved upon you shouldn't have to take a 30 buck acre hit that should be wrote off now and get on with it.

[mbratrud]

furrow if you are right that would be pretty bullish for Canola, I will go with 15 mil harvested at 28 bus. Still a bullish number.

[furrowtickler]

watch canola markets over the next few days... They now know the crop ins acres, they are no longer trading 16.75 mill acres. It was just a matter of time.

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny they get the information before farmers since they pay for it. Hm My guess is 12.8 mill acres canola. at 28