cbot vs mgex

[samhill]

Sept 11 wheat on CBOT higher than MGEX Sept 11.

What does this say? I don't know except we should
seed winter wheat.

[TOM4CWB]

sam,

Good comments yesterday by Larry that CBOT fund influence is huge.

3 things to watch;

CDN $, likely between .87 and .96... election year to keep in range; On. and Qu. manuf. jobs to tame CDN$.

Fund positions; net shorts on CBOT WHT being liquidated... CLOSE TO 3MMT BEGINNING OF WEEK DROVE MARKET UP. Larry didn't think done yet... funds to change to net flat... over 3mmt left short... could drive CBOT WHT UP MORE.

OCEAN FREIGHT; Baltic Panamax Index hitting its lowest point since May 2009. $27/T WST CST TO JAPAN. THIS WILL DRIVE UP US WHEAT MOST LIKELY. CWB RECKS WINTER WHEAT... MITIGATE CWB WW INFLUENCE... IN DECISIONS... LOWERS WTR WHT PRICES IN WSTRN CA. BASIS OUT OF LINE ON CWB WTR WHT BIG TIME.

RUSKY/EU PROBLEMS PLUS WSTRN CA. DRIVING UP WHT... FUNDS VERY NERVOUS ABOUT RETURN TO 2008 SHORTAGES. high px worth big $$$ in US... CWB stopping wstrn cdn grower fron cashing in on px. $5/bu premium on 15px dns... we in west cdn CWB area can't get to.

LARRY SAID WE WOULD BE DEAD BEFORE CWB MONOPOLY CHANGES. LEFTIES IN ROOM HAD RED FACES.

I WOULD ADD AU CROP LONG WAYS FROM BIN TOO!

GOOD POINTS LARRY.

LARRY DID SUPER JOB IN CAMROSE... THANKS TO BASF.

[TOM4CWB]

Samhill,

by the way... CBOT is CWSWS... not Wtr Wht. It is KBOT. CWB basis = negative $50/t.

THat 15px $5/bu was a PREMIUM to = $10/bu wht price earlier this spring.

[samhill]

Thanks for the info Tom, of course the CWB is the fly
in the ointment. What was I thinnking!

[samhill]

Interesting how much wheat,corn, soy products, even
some barley that we import from the U.S.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/complete.htm

Also see how much flax the U.S. exports to Europe, likely
sourced from Canada.

I will see what I can find for Canada grain/oilseed to USA,
or maybe someone here has the #'s.

[charliep]

The Canadian Grain Commission publishes exports to the US.

[URL="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/ecgwf-egcfb/ecgm-megc-eng.htm"]Crop exports[/URL]

They also put out an annual report.

<a href="http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/statistics-statistiques/cge-ecg/cgem-mecg-eng.htm">annual report cgc</a>

Another good source of information is the CWB annual statistical summary.

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/about/investor/annual/pdf/08-09/stats_english2008-09.pdf">cwb stat report</a>

[charliep]

Will leave the initial question alone as I would have to admit to being as confused as anyone (perhaps my normal state) but I thought I would pass along a good site for doing spread charts (MGEX website).

[URL="http://www.mgex.com/charts.html?page=mspreads"]wheat spread charts[/URL]