Oats prices at new record high prices?

[bigsteve]

Its just a matter of time before oats prices rocket higher.In talking to many terminal staff-oats acres are almost non-existent.My prediction is that oats will be in the $4.50-$5.00/bus.in the Dec.-March period.The rocket fuel will be ignited with the statscan seeded numbers report on Aug. 20. Flax prices will also be on fire leading up to the report.This is going to be lots of fun!Its our turn.Any comments or thoughts guys?

[wmoebis]

Agree, However Price doesn't matter when you don't have any. Good for guys that have carry over for sure.

The big issue for me is to hold that price up for years to come when we get into high production. As soon as we get back into normal production the market price will drop and we will be no better off.
We either need supply regulator or price regulator for long term price stability and this has to come from the producer up not from the market down. We have been chasing markets for way to long we need the markets to chase our product. Then we can set the price instead of them. Become price setters not taker.

[parsley]

Are you saying, wmoebis, that you would like a SET price, as does the Wheat Boars, a fabulously renowned CWB price, you say?, and then have that high price income pooled?

Head Banger Question for July 17th: Why do most single deskers grow canola, since they must obviously continue to amass fortune from the single desk system they tirelessly promote?
Pars

[wmoebis]

Although the CWB doesn't market oats, I think that seeing as we have a spike in prices in all commodities we as producers and our partners, as marketers (board and non board) should be focusing on how to maintain and expand on that price spike.

[freewheat]

Fun for those with a crop to play with, or money to put into options etc.. Thousands of guys will be watching this market go up. Then back down. Just like in 2007-08, when we watched every report, every news item proclaim the great commodity prices, while we watched the rain come down.

I personally could care less, I am a heartbeat away from quitting this stupid game of farming. At least the kind of farming we are all familiar with. But, I am happy for the guys who will profit from this, I really am. It must be some small comfort to many guys, watching these prices rocket up with the prospect of even half a crop...

[SASKFARMER3]

Latest drive yesterday off to dauphin then down to Brandon then back to yorkton down to moosomin and to Regina.
Manitoba has some really nice crops, one at StLizzard of Canola to die for its awesome. Also best field of winter wheat just East of Town. Once you get to grenfell starts to look shitty all way to moose jaw.
Answer to question can count oats fields on one hand. The buyers frucked up and are now trying to fill silos from poor farmers lock your bins boys let them get it from Finland oh their dry Hm.
Yea its on way to $5.00 and Flax who knows where but acreage is down.

[JoeyPotato]

Open a trading account and put on a hedge when
prices are high and profitable. Not a new idea but it
shows how many guys don't know what they are
taking about wmoebis.

Let the market do its thing and put away the hammer
and sickle.

[wmoebis]

You are right Joeypotatoe not all of us have gone to school or learned all aspects of marketing.

Could you please elaborate on how this is going to ensure that next year when we seed more acres and produce a bumper crop the world asking price is not going to drop to below COP again?

"AH" Light bulb just came on. I am talking about increasing world price for the better returns to all Canadian producers. You are talking about Joeypotatoe's returns.

See, I would like to see the price stay above the COP with a profit then you can make or lose on futher investments on hedging etc. If I want to invest in something else I can. The first thing is to get world price above COP and keep it there.

Took awhile but now I see. I want to make a living by growing grain others want to make a living by investment trading. Thank you

[TOM4CWB]

wmoebis,

Please explain how the CWB does anything... but the majority of the time sell below our cost of production?

Offer my high quality WW $3.10/bu?

Wanted to steal my #1 Hard white as #3?

Cashing in on futures spike many times is the only way to turn a profit!

DO you actually know what your cost of production is this year?

[JoeyPotato]

Bang on Tom.

Wmoebis, when your prices are profitable, because
everyones COP is drastically different, lock in a
price by taking a short position in chicago. Or if
that is too risky sell a call or buy a put option.
There are many people on this web site that can
elaborate into much deeper detail than me (Insert
brenda here, because i know she is dying to plug
farm link solutions, lol).

Just because you do not have the oat price posted
del to the pit, you watch the futures month and
essentially lock in your profit. Just like many have
throughout the years.

That is the quick and dirty on hedging. I have left
out many things im sure the the basic point is
there. You make it sound like you are falling on the
sword for all farmers and I am out for myself. Not
true at all. The tools for locking in prices are
available and the market will give opportunities to
do so. It is apparent after reading these threads for
years that some farmers need to use the tools
available. This will not solve all problems but will
eliminate some.

Now if the weather will let us grow a decent crop
we should be able to lock in a profitable price.
Good luck to everyone in this second half of the
growing season.

[JoeyPotato]

And for the record hedging is not a investment
account. A investment account is a speculative
account. A hedge is supposed to take the risk out of a
situation, not increase it. There is nothing speculative
about it.

Unless you start trading coffee one day instead of
taking the price risk out of oats. lol. Im sure we have
all heard of someone who has done that.

[cottonpicken]

A hedge is as oxy-moronic as it gets.

A position is a position-you either lose or gain.

[Choice2U]

I agree with Cotton EXCEPT when you make the decision based on locking in a profit which is what Joeypotato was referring to. If your goal is managing risk versus hitting the market peak and you lock in a price which secures a profit level then the decision is still correct AT THE TIME IT WAS MADE regardless of the price movement afterward. If you are speculating, then yes, for every winner there is a loser.

[cottonpicken]

I just cant wrap my head around it?

I sell canola and bet that it falls or rises?

Because i dont want to miss out on a move?That
may move against me?

I just dont see the logic.

This is black and white you lose or gain,painting a
grey picture of "well i had to because of the risk"
makes no sence

[cottonpicken]

Must be some brokers on here dieing for farmers to
get into the options game with them so they can get
their cut like there is on popular amerkano sites.

A position is a position-EINSTEINS