You Cant make Silk out of a sows Ear!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well I have to say the old adage is probably right. This year we had flooding and got most seeded then it hailed and rained for almost a inch a day for way to long. Now the sun is out and its drying up but Disease is rampant. Sprayed some HRS twice. One has to ask the question WHY?? I drive by the Hailed out fields their trying to come back but we will harvest those when December? Then the big problem is the 30% hail damaged fields they fool you their headed but the top flag leaf was hit and cut the odd head is coming out crooked from the hail strike in boot. So from road it looks like a disaster that is way worse than the 100% hailed out shit. Canola on hill tops is nice and well drained soil excellent. Burnt stubble still best but any where it flooded their are sick short ugly plants that when you pull out of the ground have no root hairs. Barley is OK but not even near last years potential. Durum maybe will hit last years. Oats maybe two year ago yield but not last year. Peas any thing that didn't get hail is 'Awesome" but if it had 10 to 30 percent not their.
But the big hitter this year will be total production, last year you had 160 to 145 acre quarters that say averaged 55 to 60 on HRS. But this year it will be 40 to 55 on 110 to 145 acre quarters so total production in east will be way down.
But back to the original comment, you can give a sick crop every single thing in book yet mother nature still decides its out come.

[poorboy]

One has to be carefull when making assumptions for western canada by only looking at local conditions.

Last year in my area of Alberta, it was a major drought. Harvested only 15% of my acres and that was the norm for as far as I travelled. But crops in eastern Sask and Man were excellent and that pulled up the prairie average and the crop prices did not explode like I had hoped.

This year the crops in almost all of Alberta look excellent. The yield potential is 35-50% above average at this point. Canola acreage is huge. Areas that normally only grow canola in a 1 in 4 year rotation are growing 1/3 to 1/2 the farm in canola.

This will not offset all of the losses in Saskatchewan and Manitoba by any means, but it sure could provide enough crop that prices do not rally as strongly as one would think.

No one want to brag on these forums, so you usually hear more about the problems and complaints than you do about the good. My advice is to be carefull in setting your crop pricing goals, because there may be much more crop harvested than people think if mother nature is kind for the rest of the growing season.

[fjlip]

I agree, poorboy, even good looking canola around Kelvington on the fields that have a long slope and drain well. Much of Peace has a third year of drought, but some good crops too. The US has floods, hurricanes and heat scares, but it seems that every year is a record or a great crop. It's just so emotionally stressful to cope with situations beyond our control that we want to blame something or perhaps wish for company in our misery. We rarely have a poor crop, but have lost value in the good yields mainly from frost and rain, only 3 years too dry in my career. Pricing the crop is the most risk, but the most important to profitability.
It's raining again today, disease will ruin whatever is growing in this area. We can't even cultivate the soggy fields. Everyone sprayed over mud and potholes. More standing water today than spring runoff. I feel next year could be worse here, if fields don't dry by winter.

[bucket]

Given the widespread area of this disaster, I doubt the good acres can make up for what is lost.

Quality and the risk of running into a frost play into this as well. The extension that was granted by crop insurance just put them into a higher payout due to yield loss.

Good on the guys that got it in and things look great but hail and frost are big concerns.

Everyone is looking for a september like last year, I think they better be hoping for October to be like last september. It is that late.

This is one ugly year. And you know it when the liberals actually acknowledge the disaster in western canada. Goodale and Iggy figure we need more. Must be an election coming soon.

[sawfly]

we have perfect crops, started out dry ,
not heavy land,apparently we can handle a lot of
rain. but it is getting scary, another 2 1/2 inches in last 5 days 1 and 7/10 of that this am.
every other day, 6/10 2/10 1 7/10 just boggles the mind. must be around 16-17 inches by now
maybe its just here we are getting it, and it was supposed to be sunny this week.
gotta be hurting and delaying some of the really
good crops.
if it does not slow down pretty soon i
do not know what we will end up with.
Uncharted territory totally,

[mcfarms]

Sawfly do you /did you get any fungicides on are you seeing disease pressure?

[furrowtickler]

Just north east of sawfly, more concerened about bugs - midge and diamond backs - midge are horrible tonight!!

[sawfly]

just did peas and barley with fungicide.
btm leaves on peas have black spots, but that has not changed since before spraying.
wheat same , btm yellowing and some stripe ing. but top3/4 good . do not know if that is much out of ordinary.
given that rains have kept coming, maybe should have done wheat too .
we were supposed to be outside the midge area, this year.
silly thinking i could park sprayer til fall burn down.