spring wheat

[cottonpicken]

7.50-12.50 range for a significant period of time is in
the cards,from a quick eyeballing of the
charts.(barring unforseen economic tsunamis)

[hobbyfrmr]

Cotton,

Which commodity exchange are you using, Minneapolis, or Chicago. I also wonder if this really matters. Ultimately a western canada producer gets what the CWB gives them in the end. It seems like we would get about 60% of the value you describe. A person can do the "buy back" with the cwb but it seems complicated, and ultimately no financial advantage. Maybe I just have not taken the time to really do the math on the buy back. I am not "brilliant" by any means, actually I could barely understand the CWB marketing options so the buy back was waaaay over my head. So if a farmer wants to participate in the chicago/minn markets, would you suggest that they sell the physical wheat to the cwb, and then buy futures or options in these exchanges in case price goes up?

[booboo04]

hobbyfrmr, all the CWB contracts and options are meaningless, confusing, and foolish. The CWB is a Monopoly and a Dictatorship, they tell us they have different contracts and options but in reality how can this be. If a FPC were to cost the CWB a little extra money would they not get it back from the other options.... likely the Pool return. What has the CWB got to lose, they can lose money on any contract or option and it never costs them a dime. My experience with the CWB and all its options is simple…. just go with the pool return and the hell with all the dumb programs.

We ask for fair market prices and options to sell our grain, instead we have to deal with the CWB and its stupid sale techniques as well as the poor options they give. Is it me, or do we spend more time trying to figure out the CWB contracts than we do for any other grain. Further, is it me or do I make less money from the time spent on CWB options than I do with any contract from any other grain merchant?

It is no secret to me why the rest of the world does not want an end to the CWB, except for the fact that other countries might not like the CWB selling its grain so cheap when they want to make sales also, but then guess who they are really laughing at, just might be me and you the grower.

[cottonpicken]

I use barcharts and spend a fraction of the time on
commodities.

And just because i believe i know more than anybody
walking the halls of the board,doesnt make it so,lol.

[TOM4CWB]

booboo04,

You are right,

The millers love the CWB... China loves them, Even Japan. The EU is growing CWRS now to where in Britian 2009 they exported flour.

And we growers hold supplies in our bins... at no cost to endusers and consumers. Then we make 'just in time delivery' at Minus40deg_Cel.

We growers are truly heros!!!

[timm]

flexpro shold work

[vvalk]

Flexpro will work? That has to be tongue and cheek. What is the flexpro? Where does the price come from? Ask the CWB and if you can get the same anwer twice I will be surprised. the only way to participate is take the awful basis now that they offer and then the rest is just the futures. Its the only PPO that they cant screw around with. You just get screwed initially on the basis.

[timm]

No adj factor in flexpro and can price till end of July.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2009-10/2009-10flexprocharts.pdf"]2009 10 flexpro[/URL]

<a href="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2010-11/2010-11fpcbpccharts.pdf">2010 11 fpc slide 4</a>

[vvalk]

Timm. Where does the price come from? Basically out of thin air. Ask them how they decide what the price is? Couple guys in an office make a quick decision before they go home for the day

[charliep]

Last post before I hit the road for BC.

If you check out the CWB website, the fixed price contract and the flexpro are
the same. No difference in the way they are calculated except the fpc has the
adjustment factor applied starting August 1. You can compare the current year
as well as previous years on the CWB website. All the information is posted.

The other factor is the CWB does not offer a price on any of their producer
payment options. They offer the ability to lock in a pre-paid (maybe the word
up front) total payments. The CWB manages the risk of these programs across
a 15 to 18 month price pooling period with all costs being paid by the use of
PPO products (including topping up the contingency fund). At the same time,
the CWB is managing the risk of the overall pooling system by their sales pace
model/performance measure model.

My thoughts are the CWB risk management process costs users of PPO products
50 to 75 cents/bu in risk costs that are passed on to farmer users. Lost money
that goes into the derivatives market.

[charliep]

One last. Have lost cottonpicken's comments on the market. From
a strategy standpoint, the CWB producer payment option products
do have a futures market attached to them. If you believe
cottonpicken (not forecasting myself but worth discussing), you
have the alternatives of futures/options replacement strategy.
Another tool in the tool box to be used at appropriate times.

Call me crazy but I still like the alternative of being paid on delivery
and using the money to do things/pay bills. If I have a belief about
the market, I can use other tools to speculate on higher prices.

[cottonpicken]

I'm just babbling Charlie.

Should have been more clear,following some charts
gives perspective on this happening

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?
sym=MWU0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

because this is happening

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXU0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

and if you can figure the hows and whys on this one
out you win all the marbles

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?
sym=ZNU0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

in my opinion not investment advice due your own
due diligence

imo nia dyodd