Harvest under way in Red River

[RedRiverMB]

Some Winter Wheat has come off, what i have seen has
not been that nice for yield and quality. Canola is
getting swathed and some very sad faces in the
swather, small windrow and very short even though it
looked okay from road. Many sad faces still to come,
the big yield is not there at all, some Canola might hit
35 for a high, but lots will be lower.
Lots of water around in many places yet and forecast is
unsettled for the weekend.

[Hopperbin]

If we get 15 to 20 on Canola here near Humboldt Sk. that is all we will get. 25 maybe a dream crop here. Not counting the 30 percent flooded. Really disappointed in the canola. Still flowering but looking thinner every day.

[cottonpicken]

You poor 35 bushel babies

[RedRiverMB]

The post was to give some people info that Canola
is NOT as big as one might expect in the fields that
they thought were doing well. As in any area there
are exceptions that yield good but most will be
much lower than anticipated. Unfortunately for
some this may not be what they would like to
hear,that yes there are some crops out there, but
some of us work in reality and plan our decisions
around the facts. If 35 is our high, then the average
will be significantly lower and this is on land that
may not have flooded too many times.
Cotton you must have the biggest yields every year
in your area, because if don't, you must be a bundle
of joy to be around with that insecurity... and by the
way all the wheat in Manitoba will be 100 bu/acre
with 15.5 protein Cotton.Lol

[Hopperbin]

Your right, I am downgrading mine to 15 max.

[bucket]

I got a bet with a marketing rep that canola production will be below 7mmt.

From what you guys are saying, the prime canola areas are going to be disappointing and the production numbers are coming down.

[sawfly]

we have had a great year so far.
but to me the canola looks not as hot as it should be.
don't know why , some is short, maybe all pods.
spraying midge tonight,wheat looks good ,to excellent , the good should make it, the excellent, is going to need 30
for most of august.
i never thought we would have 18 inches of rain and maybe we can have 2 yr.s without frost.

[cottonpicken]

Relax just teasing,are perspectives on what poor yields
are is totally different.

[mbratrud]

Hate to break it to you Bucket you are going to loose bad... 15 mil acres (intended was 18 mil probably higher) times 25 bushels (which is well below the trend yield) is over 8.5 MMT. There could easily be 10MMT even with poor areas.

Some analysts are saying 11MMT I do think that is on the high side. Have traveled across many areas in Western Canada this summer, and some areas look fantastic and some are absolutely terrible largely because the crop is VERY late. The only way you will be right is if it freezes before the end of August. But if we go frost-free to the end of September like last year the crop is going to be over 11.5. Not trying to rain on your parade just being realistic. The nice thing is, it probably doesn’t matter a whole bunch.

My guess Frost at the end of Aug would make 8MMT Crop, Frost the middle of Sep would be 10.5 MMT Crop and Frost at the end of Sep would make 11MMT Crop.