AU Durum

[TOM4CWB]

My Callum Downs report Aug. 3/10

Newcrop 2010/11

AWB @ Newcastle: Last week $262/t

Now $518/t... up $256/t for the week.

STUNNING.

[furrowtickler]

no worries mate the borg will be happy to sell at $240/tn or less.

[cottonpicken]

stunning if its true

[TOM4CWB]

August3/2010

Theb first 10/11 CWB EPO on Durum costs $20.77/t on an intial CWB POOL Port Price payment off of the July 22 PRO of $203/t for grade #1CWAD13px.

[Jagfarms]

I just looked at Viagra's web site in Australia and the
price of Durum Aug 3 2010 a the Port of Adelaide,
South Australia is $243 tonne.

[TOM4CWB]

Interesting what niche marketing can do!

[malleefarmer]

Tom was a error
$317

[parsley]

Munton's Malt in the UK sent this to me:

"Market Background: July, 2010
•USDA report prompted a strengthening in the feed sector which had a knock on effect on malting barley markets. The Chicago wheat futures rose a 13 month high because of concerns for the poor crops from the countries of the former Soviet Union, France and expectations for a reduced wheat crop in Canada. The wheat crop in Romania is back by 15% and back by 10% in Poland. The fields in Romania and Serbia are under water, and In Ukraine the famers cannot get sufficient diesel to run their combines although the crop is ready for harvesting.

•As we saw in 2007, commodity funds have been flooding into the soft commodities future markets. Clearly when the wheat price was down at around EURO 120/tonne the speculators could see a very undervalued market with a strong upside supported by some poor production forecasts. Traders are watching the wheat futures and there is an expectation that the price will go to EURO 200/tonne for November.

•The UK’s Home Grown Cereals Authority planting report (attached) reflected Spring barley area of 0.54 mil ha, down 26% on last season with Winter barley area reduced by 9% to 0.361 mil ha. 5 year average yield of 5.8 t/ha would suggest a total crop of just over 5.2 mil tonnes

•The weather and Russian wheat remain the focus of attention as the situation there remains difficult. The wheat crop has been hit by the worst drought in former Soviet Union for a number of decades, prompting analysts to suggest that there will be no exportable surplus

from Russia this season, usually the main source of Saudi Arabian wheat, and confirmation that the Government will be releasing 3 million tonnes of wheat into the domestic market to help stem production and shortage concerns.

•EU has barley to export but the surplus is in the hands of Brussels. The EU has stated they will not release any stocks at this time. Stock release is unlikely to occur until full production is known

•There is talk that Turkey is considering to sell stocks for export from September onwards and the quantity could be as much as 1.0 mil tonnes

•German crop inspections pointed to a more normalised crop for Winters and Springs

•Results and current indications for the French barley harvest, both Winter and Spring, resulted in Strategie Grains revising their yield forecast higher to 5.83 t/ha from 5.74 t/ha. Total production is now estimated to be 10.25 mil tonnes

•Results seen so far on UK barley: nitrogen levels have ranged from 1.35N to 1.8N with screenings from 92% retained through to 99%, all with varying moistures. Other potential issues of split, skinned or broken grains do not appear to be too difference from other years

•Winter barley yields are about ½ tonne down on 2009 crop but still quite good. The farmers are pleased with the performance of the feed varieties Cassia and Volume which have been out-performing the malting varieties consistently. From the malting varieties Cassata and Flagon have yielded better than Pearl, which is to be expected from the younger varieties.

•Average results of the Winter barley so far (straight off the field):

- Moisture 13.67%
- KG/HL 67.3
- Nitrogen 1.64 (10.25% as Protein)
- 2.5mm screen 94.31%


Commercial Situation:


The most commonly heard phrase from traders this week is “the market’s on fire...”. The prices across all cereals continue to strengthen due to the reasons outlined above but the lead is coming from the wheat futures market. There are still very few firm offers on malting barley although the paper market is indicating levels as follows:

- 2 row Winter: £115/tonne Ex farm, £125/tonne delivered harvest, £130/tonne delivered November
- 2 row Spring: £130/tonne Ex farm, £140/tonne delivered harvest, £145/tonne delivered November

Depending on the yields on the Spring (and the quality), expectations are that the market could rise to £150-170/tonne delivered against £140-150/tonne for wheat.

The graph below is indicating the 2009 and 2010 crop prices for Feed Barley and Feed Wheat. The malting barley price is largely determined by the price levels in the feed market, with many contracts placed as premium over the LIFFE feed wheat futures. This premium will vary from year to year according to where the wheat price is going and the S&D figures on malting barley availability, but the premium range will be between £15-50/tonne over wheat.

It is not possible to get any firm offers for barley going forward and there are very few spot offers. The attention is now moving to 2011 crop and we are placing premium over feed contracts for 2011 and 2012 crops now. Until we see more of the spring barley, know the yields and also get a better feel for what is happening in Scotland and Scandinavia, it isn’t possible to assess where the malting barley price will finally go. Virtually all of the price rises are coming because the global wheat markets are pushing the base up."