CWB Official is "NUTS"

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is a link from one of the experts at the CWB.http://www.syngenta.ca/Farm/Alerts/AlertDetail.aspx?AlertTypeId=5&alertId=128229
OK I know this idiot is from winterpeg and probably cant spell most Saskatchewan towns let alone knows where Alberta is but Wow is he out to lunch.
Most cereal crops I saw last weekend will not make it if we don't get at least three to four weeks of good hot weather. Yet this Nut job thinks their wont be a quality issue in Canada. What a moron.
Another example how the CWB is just out of touch with what is going on in the world. If they cant figure out Canada what the hell are they doing in world market.

[wd9]

Drove about 4000 k thru the prairies a week ago and i would have to agree with Bruce. There are certainly some lagging fields but he did say some will be feed. Its only the middle of August and too soon to call it devastated. 2 weeks ago lots of wheat and canola were already combined in MB with lots of the canola swathed in RRV. Beautiful crops, 50 bushel ish soybean chest high.

Here in central AB wheat is close and even though canola is green, the seeds are turning color. Its like there is enough moisture for once to develop properly instead of drying out and prematurely ripening. Some warm dry weather would be nice tho.

[SASKFARMER3]

OK WD40 mr I love the CWB what did you see in Regina to Moose Jaw area Hm huge crops grass green or ready to combine. Also all along the number one you saw ripe durum or grass green. No its not middle of August its last week of august. Come on you CWB supporter get your rose colored glasses off your nose.

[charliep]

Wheat board supporter and wd9 in the same sentence - interesting.

The realities you talk about are real SK3. With some luck. Alberta has the
opportunity (not the guarantee) to pull off a good crop with some exceptions
(Peace River).

I have to admit I am glad you are not marketing our crops (CWB or open market).
As a buyer if I listened to you all the time, I won't even bother to set foot in
Canada to make wheat purchases. Simply go the US and cover my needs there.
More than adequate US supplies to cover any short fall in Canada. Still the third
largest world wheat crop ever. What is changing is the trade matrix and the
exporters who will supply the major importers.

For the record, western Canada will carry old crop equal to 75 % of a normal
annual durum export program. Wheat ex durum different - still an 8 to 10 mln
tonne program versus a 12 to 14 mln tonne normally. Canola - tight regardless of
crop given traditional buyers needs and new crush capacity (no surprises given this
has been a reality for 3 months) but will still likely be close to 10 mln tonnes
production. Barley - extremely tight given livestock feed needs.

What is interesting this year is that it is strong demand/increasing consumption
that has the market more on edge than any crop problems. Recored or close to US
soybean/corn crops and high prices. Or maybe you think $4/bu corn and $10/bu
soybeans are cheap.

[jensend]

heck i love the sf3 crop reports. news for the manic depressives.

[checking]

I appreciate guys who stick up for their friends, even though they must realize they're not quite balanced. But what I really love are the ones that are totally focused on exports while price never concerns them.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charlie you talk Durum But how come every single guy that I know liquidated most of their Durum for cash flow during the March time period. Did some hog producer buy it and will sell on world market.
Realistically Alberta and West Sask have one hell of a crop on way. Wow is the cereal crop huge. Only problem its late and that's what I am trying to get out their. This telling the World were doing excellent is plain BS. Sorry but that's the fact. One frost and we have a huge supply of feed wheat and a lot that will be burnt. Is that not reality one frost and its game over. How well would Alberta be if it froze next Tuesday and realistically how much would be burnt. Maybe the heat from all the cereal fields being burnt would help climate change.

[SASKFARMER3]

No Charley 4 corn and ten soy isn't cheap what is is CWB western crop. Also buy the useless initial that the CWB comes out with the other crops out their that pay the bills are down valued. I mean the games of PRO $5.00 minus freight and wow feed grain is 3.75 Hm just enough rope to hang your self.

[JDGreen]

i somewhat agree with sf3 on this. Have travelled extensively thru albertas central regions over the last 3 weeks.. There will be massive amounts of feed from Regina all the way to the rockies if a frost should occur in the next 28 days. I wouldn't go as far as to jump off the bridge at the same time as SF3, however saying things are rosy is a load of crap. The question is why the CWB is allowed to comment on my crop when they have never looked at it or asked me about it. Im not sure being lumped in with guys combining HRS in manitoba and my 6 weeks to go yet HRS in SW sask is doing me any favors. Thats right I will be the early bird in my area and I have 5-6 weeks to go yet before i would even dream of combining wheat..

[vvalk]

What I can not understand is the CWB is selling grain. That's it. Who wants any commentary or comments. They should be like SF3 and be doom and gloom. They should be telling everyone how late or how bad the crop is. That they better buy now to cover their needs. Why would the CWB ever talk up the crop.

[charliep]

Off topic but participated in an interesting teleconference with Informa Economics. The analysts noted that hot weather during August likely has knocked average US yields from 165 bu per acre (actually I have trouble even fathoming a yield this big even though I have traveled the US many times to visit relatives) down to 162 bu per acre. A 3 bu per acre decrease in US corn yield (hopefully my math is right) would decrease US corn by 240 mln bu or 6 mln tonnes. 6 mln tonnes is likely equal to about 75 % of this year western Canadian barley production.

Don't know if these numbers are built into the market. The highlight was corn carryovers are tightening and US corn futures have good opportunity to remain in the mid $4 area.

[wd9]

SF3, you tend to see only the negative in agriculture, so maybe the poor crops are all you see.

[wd9]

All i'm saying is satellite data and color spectometry tends to be a little more objective then the 60 mph crop tour.

Long live the CWB!

[sumdumguy]

Can Alberta guys get across the border yet with a load of Durum? Are the politicians looking for donations? Hmm, I'd Like to see them try a little harder.

[hedgehog]

vvalk, i am with you on that one. the cwb should be taling down the crop, and up the price.
the australians do the same every year, they sow 50 million acres and announce a 25 million ton crop, before its even emerged. drops the market every time.