So Alberta is Going to Save the Day! Ha HA.

[SASKFARMER3]

Stats Canada is out and it looks like Alberta will save the day. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100820/t100820b1-eng.htm
Peas I say their way out and not even going to comment. Oats also way out, Flax way out, Durum and HRS have a possibility if it doesn't freeze till mid Sept or late Sept. Canola yields will not hit this mark since probably million acres is still in final days or still flowering.

[SASKFARMER3]

Prairie farmers reported that they expect to harvest 10.7 million tonnes of canola, down by 977 400 tonnes from the 11.7 million tonnes reported in 2009. The decline would be due to a drop in yield from an estimated 34.6 bushels per acre to 30.7 bushels per acre.

Provincially, farmers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan reported potential declines in area harvested, yield and production. Alberta farmers reported a rise in production, up 30.6% to 4.1 million tonnes, the result of predicted increases in yield and harvested area.
Total wheat production in the Prairies is expected to reach 20.5 million metric tonnes, a drop of 15.5% from 2009. Harvested area is expected to decline by 3.3 million acres.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan farmers estimate respective decreases of 20.5% and 25.7% in production, while Alberta production is expected to rise 4.9%, the result of stronger anticipated yields.

[charliep]

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100820/t100820b1-eng.htm"]Statcan July estimates[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

So charlie Alberta has no problem areas on canola front since this report came out. Hm sclerotinia in NE, Drought in Peace, Hail, Late crop. Yea its a bin buster.

[crusher]

SF3, best accept reality, there are some huge crops in Alberta, especially canola.

[SASKFARMER3]

I still cant see how alberta acreage would have to have double the yield they had last year to cover losses out of Sask and Man. Sorry just not possible. If were down on canola by 60% to 100% mathematically alberta would have to have yields in the 60 plus range all over the place to cover this loss, yes acreage is up way up but mathematically its not their.

[SASKFARMER3]

If 16.5 million acres were seeded then Alberta must brown bag alot of seed since seed sales across the prairies are way down way down. Some one is lying big time.

[Choice2U]

PCS has no production facilities in Canada so I believe that is where the others are saying that N production in Canada would be good. Personally, I don't see anyone building here any more because we export most N to the US. It is pretty cheap to move fertilizer from other countries where natural gas is flared off and boat it to New Orleans for the US market. That being said, the X-CIBC chief economist is saying that if we recover from this recession, we'll see triple digit oil again and then transportation costs will become a large consideration in future business plans.

[charliep]

The survey is what it is. An opinion at a point in time. When the
next surveys are done (likely in the next two weeks), the numbers
will be different.

I would also put these numbers in the context of the sales
opportunity side. None of the statscan numbers are big relative to
Canada's (western Canada in particular) potential domestic and
export customers needs. If the numbers are true (a yield opinion
based on a survey the end of July - not bushels in the bin),
carryovers the end of July 2011 will be relatively tight even with
the production forecasts provided. I hope the numbers are right -
again realizing it is still 2 months at least before the full story is
told.

[freewheat]

Sask farmer, I agree with you. First, they forgot the millions and millions of acres with NO CROP in Saskatchewan. Millions of acres with a big fat 0 for yield. In canola/flax/oats country. I am shocked at this report.

[newguy]

Not just Alberta.Canola production in south Sask. will be double of 2009. Mainly due to acres but also yield. There is alot of unseeded in south Sask but canola and lentils got in big time. Differant story if frost.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charley the real report will be out in two months Yes but if had acreage numbers from all three prov crop insurance groups. Instead of them selling that info to Grain companies etc. Wouldn'T it serve farmers better.

[charliep]

Did adjust somewhat for unseeded acres. You will disagree (which is fair) but the acres side is down. Full report below in pdf form - sorry blackberry guys.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/22-002-x/22-002-x2010005-eng.pdf"]full report[/URL]

[jethro456]

I'm from southern Alberta and our crop sure won't
make up for unseeded Saskatchewan acres. We
will yield 50% of our average for the last 5 years.
As you go north the crops look better, but hail
has been an issue between lethbridge and
Calgary. Know two guys that got hit 100% on
about 2000 acres each.

[SASKFARMER3]

All I am saying charlie is something isn't adding up it doesn't matter how much you sugar coat it it just doesn't add up. Yes the trade will go with the report as gospel according to stats Canada. Hopper are you guys way ahead on yield department over last year on canola or other guys are you way ahead. I believe you have a decent crop but not way way way over normal. Also fields that are yellow really should be taken out of this survey. If you seeded canola on June 25th or later come on. But for crop insurance one will get a better pay day by putting in a crop and lying about seeding date than any 30dollars an acre. Oh well another great report from STATS CANADA.