So Alberta is Going to Save the Day! Ha HA.

[charliep]

Did adjust somewhat for unseeded acres. You will disagree (which is fair) but the acres side is down. Full report below in pdf form - sorry blackberry guys.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/22-002-x/22-002-x2010005-eng.pdf"]full report[/URL]

[jethro456]

I'm from southern Alberta and our crop sure won't
make up for unseeded Saskatchewan acres. We
will yield 50% of our average for the last 5 years.
As you go north the crops look better, but hail
has been an issue between lethbridge and
Calgary. Know two guys that got hit 100% on
about 2000 acres each.

[SASKFARMER3]

All I am saying charlie is something isn't adding up it doesn't matter how much you sugar coat it it just doesn't add up. Yes the trade will go with the report as gospel according to stats Canada. Hopper are you guys way ahead on yield department over last year on canola or other guys are you way ahead. I believe you have a decent crop but not way way way over normal. Also fields that are yellow really should be taken out of this survey. If you seeded canola on June 25th or later come on. But for crop insurance one will get a better pay day by putting in a crop and lying about seeding date than any 30dollars an acre. Oh well another great report from STATS CANADA.

[countryguy]

Stat can reports are nothing more than market manipulation.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I agree with you.

The report is out to lunch on fallow acres in Alberta and Lentils for sure.

Canola is probably close if frost stays away till normal... and we get a week of heat... which wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this time of year.

The Canola seed will be here... grade will be the problem if it freezes before normal... same with wheat.

[charliep]

My suspicion is the market will have about an hours impact this
morning with canola the only visible Canadian market. Less than a 5 %
percent factor in any of todays prices. Tomorrow irrelevant.

Focus on the production side as much as you want. Real market
drivers, however, remains the demand side and the need for large
world crops to cover consumption. The good news story this year.

[jensend]

i think on the demand side you have to look at the increasingly pessimistic economic forecasts coming out as well. there are more canola processing plants but there is more likelihood of price resistance for the product if forecasts turn out to be accurate. prices could very well just stagnate for the next six months to a year. my guess.

[fjlip]

If the survey got very low numbers this year, they thought farmers were telling an even bigger lie so they bumped up estimates to compensate. I say all the numbers are a joke. Shame on us. Must be a better way, like crop insurance numbers.

[dave4441]

I had a private, independent analyist tell me 10.7 million MT of canola production in Western Canada yesterday. I do not grow canola but he said it is down 1 million MT. It stuck in my head as i thought that seemed likely high, all things considered. Guy was from Eastern Sask.

When you look at these Western Canadian averages, there is so many factors that come into play. Really hard to armchair it (unless you are plainly lucky) without some set of rules and hard figures from lots of crop districts. It is pretty rare for our farm to not beat western averages and they are saying that the acreage is down from expexted and yields are down.

[charliep]

jensend

I note your comments and this is a concern. The other issue will be the impact of the economy on the loonie. Errol Anderson has an interesting comment on call of the land today.

[URL="http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/newslett.nsf/all/cotl16995"]COL Errol Anderson[/URL]

[cottonpicken]

Can someone tell me in ingresh what the hell is going on with lentils

[furrowtickler]

They are all rotting all over sask, buyers know it and are waiting it out for now.