So Alberta is Going to Save the Day! Ha HA.

[countryguy]

Stat can reports are nothing more than market manipulation.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I agree with you.

The report is out to lunch on fallow acres in Alberta and Lentils for sure.

Canola is probably close if frost stays away till normal... and we get a week of heat... which wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this time of year.

The Canola seed will be here... grade will be the problem if it freezes before normal... same with wheat.

[charliep]

My suspicion is the market will have about an hours impact this
morning with canola the only visible Canadian market. Less than a 5 %
percent factor in any of todays prices. Tomorrow irrelevant.

Focus on the production side as much as you want. Real market
drivers, however, remains the demand side and the need for large
world crops to cover consumption. The good news story this year.

[jensend]

i think on the demand side you have to look at the increasingly pessimistic economic forecasts coming out as well. there are more canola processing plants but there is more likelihood of price resistance for the product if forecasts turn out to be accurate. prices could very well just stagnate for the next six months to a year. my guess.

[fjlip]

If the survey got very low numbers this year, they thought farmers were telling an even bigger lie so they bumped up estimates to compensate. I say all the numbers are a joke. Shame on us. Must be a better way, like crop insurance numbers.

[dave4441]

I had a private, independent analyist tell me 10.7 million MT of canola production in Western Canada yesterday. I do not grow canola but he said it is down 1 million MT. It stuck in my head as i thought that seemed likely high, all things considered. Guy was from Eastern Sask.

When you look at these Western Canadian averages, there is so many factors that come into play. Really hard to armchair it (unless you are plainly lucky) without some set of rules and hard figures from lots of crop districts. It is pretty rare for our farm to not beat western averages and they are saying that the acreage is down from expexted and yields are down.

[charliep]

jensend

I note your comments and this is a concern. The other issue will be the impact of the economy on the loonie. Errol Anderson has an interesting comment on call of the land today.

[URL="http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/newslett.nsf/all/cotl16995"]COL Errol Anderson[/URL]

[cottonpicken]

Can someone tell me in ingresh what the hell is going on with lentils

[furrowtickler]

They are all rotting all over sask, buyers know it and are waiting it out for now.

[Hopperbin]

Saskfarmer you asked about yields compared to last year? We are way under last year but no one harvesting yet. Canola especially bad, will be no stubble to hold swath, barley bad, peas bad. Canary and wheat average, reports of extremely high midge. No flax crops. Two oat fields should have been a hundred fields just showing seeds now from road. Lot of dirty fields around definitely going to have affect on yields.
Spraying ruts everywhere, to damage equipment. Water still running in places. Neighbor got high clearance stuck took 2 4 wheel drives to get it out. So if anyone asks what we have for a crop here I don't know yet.

[fjlip]

Same here, looks short,thin and uneven, could be crappy yields. Nothing near harvest. Need 2 weeks. Will be a challenge NOT to wreck machinery in the mud or ruts!

[agstar77]

HRS today, probably 40 with FUS.

[seabass]

Crops here vary but HRSW is running good 50-60 some ergot but not terrible. Peas are 50-60 real pain in the arse. Right flat to the ground with ruts mixed in and some water too. Canola is anywhere from 0 to 50. Short and all over the map. Some ripe to some flowering in the same field. Gonna be a dockage nightmare. Most fields will be 30 to 40% of normal. Oats were standing and looking good until last weekends rain. Now flat and twisted up will be a real challenge. Not many oats around here so should make a buck if we can get them.

[wd9]

Drive from Saskatoon to Edmonton and then north or south of there the crops are exceptional. That is a huge area. Huge chunks of manitoba too are exceptional. Crops will more then likely finish and in the end the bad is made up by the exeptional to be guess what, an average crop. IT happens most years. Some guys will really hurt this year, some will harvest potentially the best crops of their career. But that seems to be the case most years.

I'm in NE alberta and yes there is sclerotinia but with all the moisture and other environmental factors both the seeds and disease have done ok and the yield hit not bad because even the top pods are mostly developed. At worst it is like early swathing.

Sask ag said the average for today should be 5% harvested but is 1%. Not super far behind either.

[makar]

Aint no canola in the peace to speak off. By the way the peace grows more grain than all of manitoba. No grain in the peace, no news. Manitoba issues big news.