So Alberta is Going to Save the Day! Ha HA.

[newguy]

Not just Alberta.Canola production in south Sask. will be double of 2009. Mainly due to acres but also yield. There is alot of unseeded in south Sask but canola and lentils got in big time. Differant story if frost.

[SASKFARMER3]

Charley the real report will be out in two months Yes but if had acreage numbers from all three prov crop insurance groups. Instead of them selling that info to Grain companies etc. Wouldn'T it serve farmers better.

[charliep]

Did adjust somewhat for unseeded acres. You will disagree (which is fair) but the acres side is down. Full report below in pdf form - sorry blackberry guys.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/22-002-x/22-002-x2010005-eng.pdf"]full report[/URL]

[jethro456]

I'm from southern Alberta and our crop sure won't
make up for unseeded Saskatchewan acres. We
will yield 50% of our average for the last 5 years.
As you go north the crops look better, but hail
has been an issue between lethbridge and
Calgary. Know two guys that got hit 100% on
about 2000 acres each.

[SASKFARMER3]

All I am saying charlie is something isn't adding up it doesn't matter how much you sugar coat it it just doesn't add up. Yes the trade will go with the report as gospel according to stats Canada. Hopper are you guys way ahead on yield department over last year on canola or other guys are you way ahead. I believe you have a decent crop but not way way way over normal. Also fields that are yellow really should be taken out of this survey. If you seeded canola on June 25th or later come on. But for crop insurance one will get a better pay day by putting in a crop and lying about seeding date than any 30dollars an acre. Oh well another great report from STATS CANADA.

[countryguy]

Stat can reports are nothing more than market manipulation.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I agree with you.

The report is out to lunch on fallow acres in Alberta and Lentils for sure.

Canola is probably close if frost stays away till normal... and we get a week of heat... which wouldn't be out of the ordinary for this time of year.

The Canola seed will be here... grade will be the problem if it freezes before normal... same with wheat.

[charliep]

My suspicion is the market will have about an hours impact this
morning with canola the only visible Canadian market. Less than a 5 %
percent factor in any of todays prices. Tomorrow irrelevant.

Focus on the production side as much as you want. Real market
drivers, however, remains the demand side and the need for large
world crops to cover consumption. The good news story this year.

[jensend]

i think on the demand side you have to look at the increasingly pessimistic economic forecasts coming out as well. there are more canola processing plants but there is more likelihood of price resistance for the product if forecasts turn out to be accurate. prices could very well just stagnate for the next six months to a year. my guess.

[fjlip]

If the survey got very low numbers this year, they thought farmers were telling an even bigger lie so they bumped up estimates to compensate. I say all the numbers are a joke. Shame on us. Must be a better way, like crop insurance numbers.