Feed Grain

[charliep]

Recognize the issue on the wide bid offer spread. I guess ICE needs a market maker to come in. How to attract is the challenge.

[charliep]

I kill thread discussion but a frustration (and chaffmeisters) is the $180/tonne offer side is likely where feed barley export business could have been (or even still can). CWB offer up and down highway 2 has been in the same range you are paying for barley delivered southern Alberta. $160/tonne for nice number. $50 to $60 to Vancouver (elevation, rail and margin). $30 to $40 per tonne that disappeared. An active futures market and a risk tool for exporters would have likely proven current offer side out.

All theory but interesting speculation for a rainy day.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

my bid of 157 del is for delivery now not in 6 weeks when the farmer will be still combining and the train must be loaded. The will want the grain dry or else. I'm starting to wonder if I'm paying too much. Space will be KING this fall.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

not sure but i think farmers can deliver to the designated area of the western barley futures. All you need is a clearing house to validate your stocks.

[charliep]

Your points also have me asking questions about the barley stocks number out a week today. Would seem July 31 feed barley inventory will be bigger that at least what I expect and feed consumption during 2009/10 lower. Will be smarter September 8.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

you and me both. as well it is my csaual observation that Alberta barley acres are understated. Farmers planted barley this year on their later seeded areas. Between increased yield and extra acres planted I estimate Alberta's barley yield is under estimated by 500,000 mt. Like I said this is a casual obseervation.

[charliep]

still have to get a bid and offer to the ICE trading floor (or I should say computer screen these days) followed by whatever the new world equivalent of sold is.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

That in there lies the problem. if someone offers 175 on the dec 10 i would buy it. 170 on the oct. that number is delivered my yard if i stand for delivery. deduct your freight off to calgary to determine your price. I have until the end of the crop year, july31, 2011 to call for it, but while you hold it for me i pay you 12 cents per mt a day or 3.6 buck a mt per month. what does the board pay for storage?

[Burbert]

There is a short crop of barley coming off this Fall. CWB is in the bidding, export program promises to be good, from the looks of it. Open market had better wake up and smell the roses, or they will get nothing this year! In other words let the bulls out to run this year. Oh yeah by the way, you's kin always get cheap corn and distillers grain from the USA, to make good rations. with hay and straw, you could feed the nags. ER sell then rather than buy barley........

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Could be right Burbert, but I have been doing this along time and something don't add up. With a late harvest a looming fact I will be able to pick and choose. Alberta is flush with feed grain very soon.