I kid you not, it has really rained over 45 inches south of Elfros. It looks like an inland sea is forming. I think next year seeding is just a dream, a "wet dream" that is.
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Yeah, when it is wetter in September than a guy has ever seen it in the spring before, when, creeks run all year, and when you leave ruts on your highest land, next year looks to be pretty iffy indeed. What the heck are we gonna do guys? Really? How can one seed in two years out of 5 and survive?
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Welcome to REALITY, for some of you newcomers to crop loss due to weather out of your control. Under the current crop insurance and agrivation, you are on the verge of entering the world of spiral down coverage and out of farming. These programs that are based on past year flops to give you coverage are obsolete in this day of increasing changing weather extremes. Shut down the agrivation, recognize this is the worst disaster in western canada history, and even if it wasn't there needs to be effective fall back even if there was smaller pockets. Guarantee a payment this fall not frickin next fall and claw it back anytime in the next 10 years but this fall. Unseeded acreage payment increase and seeded acreage minimum guarantee whether it comes from price or bushels. And NO filling out your FRICKEN agrivation forms correctly isn't the problem and not the solution, it's a flop embarrassment and a joke all in one, less forms less accountants more action.
Now I mentioned on another thread about crop insurance denying insurance coverage to those that could not harvest their crops before 15 of June this year, how would you like that happenning to you, because it's becoming a real reality. Do you think that isn't an underhanded thing to do, cut off the insurance on a year like this, premium is paid. Disaster assistance elsewhere there is no premium.
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Lets look at Durum We harvested 30 acres on Sat only durum done in 30 mile radius seeded in April. Yield could be better and grade will be 2 if blend with last years. Later seeded Durum is way better yield. But here is problem if it keeps raining and raining and all late durum in west Canada is basically not going to have a lot of durum. Basically last years high quality that some farmers were liquidating because the CWB wouldn't take. And guess what those IDIOTS probably sold what we have on hand in bins for last years prices. So yes the US price of Durum will go up but in canada sorry we let this one get buy us again.
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Any way to find out what percentage of US wheat crop is unpriced? Since they deliver most from the combine and forward price Jan to June, I' bet the majority missed the price spike after the Russian weather issue. We are not alone marketing a bit too early, I fear. Now we will hear huge acreage increases in SA and 2011, that will pressure prices.
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Right except they don't start at $1.50 per bushel and wait a year and half for the rest.
Maybe the US farmer sold early but they are paid for the full value at the time. We are forced to store with no payments. They also took those contracts well ahead of seeding with a surplus of wheat. Western canadian farmers could not touch those prices at that time. The cwb only recently woke up to the fact that we are in a shit load of trouble with the crop. Domestically or world wide.
And lets talk about durum - forced storage and forced lower price for the carry and forced to wait three years for the 09 crop.
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