Canola Stocks report! Is it Just a short term Buffer!

[SASKFARMER3]

If the weather doesn't change soon the market might start to react. At least for now the information out their is mostly lucky guess. But the stocks number can be dissected and dissected and hit pretty close to home. What we really need is a jolt of reality. Ah the weather isn't getting the market to react since the stat numbers on seeded acreage is gods word. So maybe Wall and company should really tell the people how much money will be paid out from flooded and not seeded program. Reason why this is not being released is its huge and no government wants to release what it actually gave farmers and how much the lost cultivation will cost the Sask economy.
oh well maybe Friday it will come out.

[furrowtickler]

One must look at a bright side. There will be a great oppertunity within days to possibly lock in a very good basis. The crushers will be sweeping the floors within days.

[newguy]

heard richardson terminal is going to try and buy as much canola to fill it starting next week.

[boarderbloke]

newguy, up to this point, their Basis has been wider than everyone elses. Perhaps the concrete wasn't cured enough yet to fill it, maybe now they'll be in business.

sf3, the $$$$ for flooding payout will not likely come out till Oct, as you can apply to the program till Sept 30th. After swathing my canola, I will apply this week for acres "flooded out After Planting", a lot of acres lost in the field away from the road, an unpleasant surprise.

[silverback]

so is canola ever going to go up? We are still sitting on some good stuff as this years will be questionable. I would like to think the horror stories will drive the price higher some day, but it looks less than promising today.

[charliep]

Would expect most grain companies/crushers have booked much of their fall needs. That may change as the fall progresses and they start to replace volumes they thought they had contracted but farmers are not able to fill.

When I hear the price is too low I have to ask what everyone has for a target price for the next round of sales. My comparison is to fishing. There are times boredom/no fish taking the bait but you had better know what a good nibble feels like and the ability to hook the fish on the other end of the line when appropriate.

[SASKFARMER3]

11.00 and ill sweep the bins except a little bit to gamble.

[furrowtickler]

With stats can numbers still way out to lunch our targets set @$10.50 will hit then it's $11.75 for the next 25% - if we get it off.

[checking]

Put your battery back in your canola producer finder, and you will again know that most of the fish out there are bottom feeders. No target on this sucker's back! (lol)

[charliep]

You may be right.

My experience it takes a lot of logistics to supply a crushing plant. The new plants are over 800,000 annual capacity (2,500 tonnes/day and 330 days crush). Thats 60 B trains every day. They have made oil and meal sales and logistics movement on a forward basis that they need to fill. They have to run plants continuously - can't shut down because that creates lots of problems on the operations side. You know the plants better but I suspect less than 2 weeks storage on site.

So what the companies need to do is to create the flow of canola from farm bin to their plant. Everybody has a different approach but mine would be to work with them to solve their problem.

[newguy]

The terminal I was talking about was Weyburn. I think they will fill these with canola to make sure they have their fair share when the plant opens. There is a big crop of canola in the south this year because of acres and yield but demand will suck it up in a hurry.

[charliep]

Agree. Interesting math but 2,500 tonnes and 16 days storage (hopefully my math is right) equals 40,000 tonnes. A new crush needs almost the equivalent of a new high through put elevator capacity every two weeks plus two days.