September USDA Estimates

[charliep]

USDA supply demand day.

The 5 minute scan highlights a slight reduction in corn yields (162.5 bu/acre versus 165 in Sept). Not big changes in world wheat S&D.

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf"]september usda estimates[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

No mention of the problems in Canada. Hey. I guess we really dont matter.

[charliep]

Strictly numbers.

What numbers should USDA be using for Canada? What impact on world
supplies and trade?

I suspect the world is well aware of the situation. Having done some other
activities in my life, market intelligence (in this case, knowing what is going
on) is critical to good decision making. Is everything built into todays prices?
Good question. Wheat is $7/bu plus futures. Corn will make a run at $5
eventually. Soybeans/soyoil is holding above $10/bu and 40 cents/lb
respectively.

Weather issues and impact on western Canadian businesses is one thing. A
good price can't make up for crappy yields and quality. Sorry.

Impact on the market is another. Part of the reason US prices are higher is
they are one of the few exporters with supplies and they have a system that
can respond to price signals.

Will be an interesting day in the reduction in corn yield as a result of a hot
August was generally anticipated. Buy the rumor/sell the fact.

The 2.5 bu/acre reduction in US corn is 200 mln bu or about 5 mln tonnes. A
bigger impact than any reduction on the Canadian side.

[fjlip]

What problems? USDA says for wheat... Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Canada ...
Global ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons higher with increases for EU-27, Canada, and Australia!
For Oats...World oats production is reduced 0.9 million tons with lower production for EU-27, Canada, and Belarus.
For Canola...Global ****seed production is projected higher as increased production for Canada more than offsets reduced crops for Russia and Ukraine.

Our crap year is of NO effect on world production?

[charliep]

Based on your analysis, you should be holding off pricing until later this winter/spring. Fair enough.

[charliep]

I guess I never get too excited about these reports. If I disagree,
then I start adjusting for what I believe the real numbers.

Picking on wheat, what would a 2 to 4 mln tonne reduction in
Canadian wheat production have on world trade? Where will
importers go to replace our supplies?

What impact will of a larger than normal percentage of western
Canadian wheat grading feed have on the market? Will feed
wheat present to replace US corn into S.E. present opportunities?
Can the CWB get market signals back to you using some
program like the cashplus feed barley one.

I know it drives you guys nuts but sometimes being relaxed,
watching, positioning and executing are the keys to better
marketing - what this site is supposed to be focused on.

[charliep]

Oops.

Will Canadian feed wheat be able to replace US corn (expensive) into S.E. Asia. They have
also bought Russian and Ukraine lower quality wheat over time and there will be
replacement opportunities from their drought.

[brian99]

What I found interesting was the corn number. The new USDA numbers put corn stocks to use at 8%, the lowest since 1995. Technical traders love this stuff. Where is this bus goin?

[joedales]

Our analysis of the USDA WASDE Reports.

>

[stubblejumper]

The US Agriculture Department has cut its forecast for Australian wheat exports, blaming the reduction on problems related to the loss of the Australian Wheat Board. USDA World Ag Outlook Board chair Gerald Bange said the latest forecasts pegs Australian 2010-11 wheat exports at 16 million tons, down half a million tons, after a million-ton boost last month. "With the disappearance of the Wheat Board, going back to different marketing channels... those marketing channels have not matured yet, you might say