weather and markets

[newguy]

With the forcast the way it is I think next week there will be a reaction in the market because of weather concerns. Think buyers were hoping for a good harvest and everything is good. Reality has set in and Canada now has harvest problems. Prices before were neutral and now only have upsides to them. A rally could come to try and get grain that is now in bin.

[bucket]

Apparently they have enough grain in the system for the near term.

Just in time delivery is working out great.

The grain companies have been trucking grain from every storage elevator to their high throughputs for a month now.

This time when they are short they are going to be begging for grain and covering the trucking costs isn't going to buy my grain this year.

Especially on durum where it has been stored for over a year and its dry.

The sad part of the story is that it has been known for over three months it is a late crop and the cwb went and sold it for peanuts.

At least with the off board crops you can squeeze the marketing reps a little and make them understand the situation they are in.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket,

As the CWB pool selling pace is slow... you should look at what they have done.

" The futures and options markets are used to moderate faster or slower cash sales to ensure pricing follows this pace. At the time of this PRO, the CWB has priced approximately 18 per cent of the expected 2010-11 crop year deliveries of wheat. A pricing level of 50 per cent is anticipated by the end of December."

Excerpt from the August 26/10 PRO.
http://www.cwb.ca/dom/db/contracts/pool_return/pro.nsf/WebPRPub/2010_20100826.html?OpenDocument&CropYr=2010-11

This is why the PRO could jump from $225 to $278 on CWRS between July and August PRO's.

[parsley]

"The Canadian nominal trade deficit widened to C$2.7 billion in July from a downward-revised C$1.8 billion shortfall in June (originally -C$1.1 billion). This is the largest
monthly trade deficit since Statistics Canada’s trade records began in 1971.

Nominal exports fell 0.7%m/m while imports surged 2.0%m/m.

Real imports rose 1.2%m/m while real exports were essentially unchanged. Consequently, the real trade deficit widened further in July—to C$9.0 billion (monthly rate) from a
downward-revised C$8.5 billion in June. The real deficit has now widened in five of the past six months and points to net exports being a further drag on GDP in 3Q. The July real trade deficit is already C$1.6 billion (on monthly basis) wider than the 2Q average. This is larger than the increase in the real trade deficit for all of 2Q when net exports subtracted
nearly 3%-pts from overall GDP growth.

On the silver lining side, some of the continued surge in real imports reflects increased business spending on equipment and machinery (particularly by commodity producers),
most of which is imported. Real equipment and machinery imports jumped 1.9%m/m in July and stand 4.8% not annualized above their 2Q average.

Business spendingon equipment and machinery jumped 30%q/q ar in 2Q and
added 1.4%-pts to overall GDP growth. The July reading puts equipment spending on track for an only slightly less spectacular performance in 3Q."

No shortage of money for equipment, is there. Pars