Traders taking a wait and See attitude!

[SASKFARMER3]

Well looks like traders are taking a wait and see attitude on the 2010 crop. Hm wait why every farmer knows whats out their Wet Damp poor quality high yielding in some areas crop. Canada will be w world leader in Agriculture with climate change. Hm rice could be crop of choice next year. http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Climate change could make Canada major world power geographer/3524690/story.html
Fun day harvesting this week got going at 5 rained at 7. Will be down for two weeks Sat. Every province is now 3 to 4 weeks behind normal. Lots of time left don't worry, No need to get stressed out its a normal year.
Traders are taking a wait and see really means their holding down prices now hopping Dumb farmers deliver so they have quantity before the shit hits the fan. So far its working. Oats is good in yorkton till Nov. Crushers are good for while.
Wait and see works.

[silverback]

I am sure we will get some crop off this week. Take a look at the forecast for Strathmore, not one day in double digits for more than a week with rain and maybe snow.

Quality will obviously be of little concern also.

[SASKFARMER3]

You must have a big tarp because env Canada shows sun just Friday. Good luck. Were to wet from last nights rain to get going Friday maybe sat but will have to have some wind soon.

[Partners]

Traders are thinking, why pay Big $$$ for crops that are Not in the bin... Higher prices will not help us combine in the mud..If they keep prices low, the guys with carry over will have to sell eventually..

[charliep]

Perhaps you are asking the wrong people to pay more. End use buyers
are the ones who have to step up to the plate and start pricing.

If I were buyer (whose end outcome will be to purchase physical
supplies for my processing plant/livestock operation), I wouldn't chase
this market on the cash side with higher bids. Given the farmers (read
you guys) face, no one is likely to sell to me today at any price so would
be unproductive. My short term needs in the physical/cash market
would be covered. I would have longer term needs covered with
futures.

It is a time to stay focused on the number one priority - getting the
crop harvested. Pricing will get more active and interesting in the
winter.

I note US corn futures are $5/bu in 2011 contracts. Wheat futures not
far from $8. Beans staying close to $10. I guess everything is a matter
of perspective.

[charliep]

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx"]nearby futures[/URL]

[SASKFARMER3]

OK charlie Ill bite and yes Were giving it to get something off. No slackers here.
But in Canada where is 2011 fall barley price, 2010 HRS price and 2011 canola price. All in the crapper compared to US farmers. Their on verge of bumper HRS and Bean crop, Yet prices are rising. In Canada were stuck (pun in mud) in sideways trading and PS poor prices, Oats is a joke barley is joke and canola at today's price is a joke. But in Canada where all the experts spout no problem we have a great crop and will get it harvested attitude is whats psing me off. Why not once tell it like it is not rose colored glasses and rah rah rah. THat's the problem I have its oh don't worry we will combine. Well another week is gone and do you have a way to extend fall, Must have a line to god or mother nature or Allah or who ever.
Why not its getting late 4 weeks behind and weather is turning against farmers.
Not (as its advising snow and rain for another week) life is good on farm crop has potential to be very large could be some minor quality issues and warm weather will come soon. Yea next JULY!

[SASKFARMER3]

Oats down hard.

[furrowtickler]

When was the last time you sold canola for over $10/bus in sept?

[charliep]

Not arguing with anything you are saying. The question back at you is are a seller today? If not, why do you care what the price is?

Reality is biting hard. Perhaps as a buyer (read end user), I would watch and listen to what is happening Canada. I would be taking my business to other areas of the world. As a buyer of high quality product (1/2 CWRS, malt barley, etc), the reports are telling me western Canada won't have anything to sell me this year. I won't waste my time having a discussion with grain company/seller in western Canada. I will take my nearby purchases to other regions of the world with supplies (paying what I have to pay to obtain my processing plants needs for inputs) and maybe source western Canadian stuff later in the year (depending on the crop). Don't know the price at that time but I can the futures market in the interim.

[bucket]

Reality in canada is the crop is the shits - quality wise overall.

And saskfarmer3 is right the US farmers are pricing next years crop at a premium to anything western canadian will see.

[charliep]

It will be a very interesting and dynamic year.

Perhaps some of the challenges this year will be to manage cashflow and bin space/marketing of tough/damp grain.

On the cash flow front, it is for sure a year you want to utilize the CWB producer payment options (no waiting for adjustment payments) to allow you to average out your open crop marketing.

No easy answers on how you will deal with getting a home for or drying down high moisture grain.

[bucket]

Thats why my dry two year old durum should be worth something.

That I am lacking a storage payment on. And being forced to sell at a lower price than when I grew it.

[T.N.T.]

I'm still sitting on last years canola,and they think $10 in sept will make me sell it,there a bunch of idiot's.The only guys selling canola right now,are the ones that can't afford to leave it in the bin anymore!!!

[IAMTHEMOLE]

i think this is an excellent time to accumulate barley and now sell corn futures against it. Using 90 cents over december 2010 futures of 4.94 per bu and a 97 cent dollar translates to $237/mt for corn to southern alberta. Chances are you can book a better basis than that maybe 65 cents over which is still $227 /mt del. I like my chances buying 157/mt spot and 172/mt nov dec barley and shorting some corn against my excess bushels that I bought. It may go against in the short run but traditionally that is a very large spread of corn to barley.