Traders taking a wait and See attitude!

[bucket]

Reality in canada is the crop is the shits - quality wise overall.

And saskfarmer3 is right the US farmers are pricing next years crop at a premium to anything western canadian will see.

[charliep]

It will be a very interesting and dynamic year.

Perhaps some of the challenges this year will be to manage cashflow and bin space/marketing of tough/damp grain.

On the cash flow front, it is for sure a year you want to utilize the CWB producer payment options (no waiting for adjustment payments) to allow you to average out your open crop marketing.

No easy answers on how you will deal with getting a home for or drying down high moisture grain.

[bucket]

Thats why my dry two year old durum should be worth something.

That I am lacking a storage payment on. And being forced to sell at a lower price than when I grew it.

[T.N.T.]

I'm still sitting on last years canola,and they think $10 in sept will make me sell it,there a bunch of idiot's.The only guys selling canola right now,are the ones that can't afford to leave it in the bin anymore!!!

[IAMTHEMOLE]

i think this is an excellent time to accumulate barley and now sell corn futures against it. Using 90 cents over december 2010 futures of 4.94 per bu and a 97 cent dollar translates to $237/mt for corn to southern alberta. Chances are you can book a better basis than that maybe 65 cents over which is still $227 /mt del. I like my chances buying 157/mt spot and 172/mt nov dec barley and shorting some corn against my excess bushels that I bought. It may go against in the short run but traditionally that is a very large spread of corn to barley.

[charliep]

Good strategy.

Would buying corn puts work? Know cost/ability to particate in corn based rallies?

Could you do the same thing with bean oil? Not necessarily today but on the watch list.

[grassfarmer]

Sorry, I like the idea of producer owned plants but I'm not risking the capital required in the current environment (packer status quo and the AB Government backing of them)for a possible measly return of $35 or less extra per animal. Just doesn't make business sense for me.

[wd40]

So.... my question GF. You must have been around the block enough times that you think you know how big of an investment you might HAVETO make.

So how much do think that would be?

Secondly how much would you be willing to make with the right proposition?

[per]

wd, are you propositioning Grassfarmer??? ;o)

[wd40]

Well depends on what you mean by propositioning. However, everybody has a price and to make such a blanket statement actually means very little.

Is someone expecting GF to invest $500,000; $100,000; $5000 or maybe $2000?

He said he “I'm not risking the capital required”. So what does that mean? Build it himself or what.

So again the real question is – If the right business plan was properly developed from good advice, etc, etc; -
What is GF or anyone else willing to “put their money where their mouth is”!

And before someone foams out at the mouth with all the problems and questions about all the how to’s.

Let’s suppose, because we can and have to, because it ain’t gonna happen unless the “If the right business plan” is developed and put onto the table.

So again how much, or rather I should say “how little” an amount would GF or anyone else be willing to invest in the future of the beef industry.

The right plan is not the problem. That just takes effort, measurable effort. The really BIG question is do we have the will and how much will it take.

Would you of GF or other put $1000 at risk or $2000 at risk or $3000. I’d like to know. Because once you know what volume of resources are there you build/match a plan to fit it.