Already a 50% call on 10/11 Durum

[gustgd]

Boarderbloke and bucket you are two smart fellows
Also we have to ask is there a sale for this Durum and at what price? Or is this just durum that the elevators will collect storage payments on.and take up space
Right now Vittera in Davidson is filling up with Durum when they are not taking barley and lentils earlier committed to.

Funny how the pool acct can pay for elevator storage but not farmer storage. (Funny peculiar, not funny Ha Ha)

[bucket]

Board director says the american farmer is not selling his durum. Duh, the wheat price is close to 7 bucks american.

So the cwb in their infinite wisdom figure they should fill those orders.

Short canada out of durum and guess what happens to the american durum price.

And this guy runs a billion dollar operation on behalf of western canadian farmers. Their skulls are very thick and sloped.

[bucket]

And apparently the durum around swift current isn't a #3 yet.

I am a youngster yet but if the durum was surviving the rains grade wise, it certainly won't withstand a frost, will it?

[wmoebis]

It maybe ones best interest to hold last years durum to see what this crop comes off like, quality wise. I don't know if they CWB is sourcing durum for previous sales or is landing new ones. Nor do we know the quality these sales are looking for other than the calls are for #1,2,and 3.

If you have #1 or 2 in store from last year and this crop comes off at a lower level you may have better blending or marketing chance if you hang on till you see quality of new crop. Other wise the grain company will be making all the profits on blending for grade improvement. If you have lower grades, depending on factor it maybe a better grade this year. Remember it will be the subjective grading factors that maybe lower this year but the objective factors have already been set and available in the grain grading guide. Knowing how to identify these factors and understanding standards are a big asset when offering your grain to buyers.

The degree of frost in this years standards, will not have been determind yet. There are a pile of variables like how much frost/ green/frost and mildew (heat stress should not be a problem this year HAHA) will be in the standards to represent grade. The grain standards commitee will not be able to set this till after harvest survey is done.

Knowing the grading system and fully understanding how it works will be very benificial to us as producers. So WE can benifit from blending and marketing oppertunities. Maybe one of your best marketing tools you have in your tool box.

[Hopperbin]

Wmoebis your right. I am sure if you look in the dictionary under stupid they may have an example like deliver last years durum now before you harvest any of this years crop. If a farmer did that he may effectively be bargaining his only chance of gaining the grades later. While the grain companies are on easy street. Must have been some deal between grain companies and the CWB for this to happen. If the CWB worked for us they would tell us to be blending last years crop, not working with grain companies for blending. We need to know what the CWB is up to. Why don't we have this information? Is keeping us in the dark protecting us from our evil selves.
Over a buck a bushel increase in durum pro value almost 4 weeks ago and no insight since then. Does the board need last years grain to blend with half of this years grain, to leave us with a near feed durum to carry over and dump into the feed market?

[wmoebis]

Like I said in another trend. If inland terminals were forces to be lisenced as terminals (like they tout themselves to be) and operate as such. They would have to return all profits from blending back to us and to the CWB. This is a CGC issue and should be aproached by everyone to have it changed. The liscences have not kept up with the changed system.

When farmers owned the grain companies the profits from blending and cleaning etc. were shared by farmers (the share holders). Now that profit is retained by corp. So we have to look out for ourselves. Knowing your own quality and how to asses it is way more important now. Grain companies are very good at their job which is making the company money.

One of the better investments you could make is to learn how to asses what you have produced and have for sale. This is not only board grains but all commodities.

It is a lot nicer and more professional if you can tell your perspective buyer what you have for sale, rather than have him tell you what he thinks you have. He maybe right or wrong hoe do you know? Negotiations work better if you both can asses the quality of YOUR production then come to an agreement if he will buy it for what YOU want.

Nobody knows what I have produced and have for sale, better than me and that is how I like it.

[SASKFARMER3]

SPRING WHEAT 14 PRO Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 6.88 @MW0Z 773'2s 19'6 -0.85
10/31/10 6.88 @MW0Z 773'2s 19'6 -0.85
11/30/10 6.93 @MW0Z 773'2s 19'6 -0.80
12/31/10 7.03 @MW0Z 773'2s 19'6 -0.70

WINTER WHEAT 11.5PRO Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 5.78 @KW0Z 768'2s 17'6 -1.90
10/31/10 5.78 @KW0Z 768'2s 17'6 -1.90
12/31/10 5.83 @KW0Z 768'2s 17'6 -1.85

MALT BARLEY Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
10/31/10 3.00 @AB0Z 182.0s 2.0 -179.00
11/30/10 3.00 @AB0Z 182.0s 2.0 -179.00
12/31/10 3.00 @AB1H 182.0s 3.0 -179.00

#2 FEED BARLEY Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
10/31/10 2.75 NONE 0.00
11/30/10 2.75 NONE 0.00

LOW END DURUM Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 3.75 NONE 0.00
10/31/10 3.75 NONE 0.00

MILLING DURUM Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 5.50 NONE 0.00
10/31/10 5.50 NONE 0.00
12/31/10 5.50 NONE 0.00

FLAX Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 11.25 NONE 0.00
10/31/10 11.25 NONE 0.00

YELLOW PEAS Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
11/30/10 4.25 NONE 0.00

SOYBEANS Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
10/31/10 9.69 @S0X 1069'0s 32'6 -1.00

CANOLA Berthold Elevator
Cash Price Futures Month Futures Price Futures Change Basis
9/30/10 17.50 NONE 0.00
1/31/11 19.00 NONE 0.00

[SASKFARMER3]

DAKOTA after initial transmission, please
WHEAT GROWERS check with your local elevator.
9/17/2010
Table O Spring Wheat
Pro Scale: 10 1/5 14% to 15%, 1.25 @ 15%, 4 1/5 above 15%, -15 1/5 14 to 13%, -10 1/5 13% to 11%
Futures 7.73 Z 7.73 Z 7.73 Z 7.73 Z 7.83 H 7.83 H 7.83 K 7.49 U
Dlvy Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar May NC 11
basis basis basis basis basis basis basis basis
Fut. Month Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Mar May Sep 11
DAILY CHG 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.32 0.16
-0.85 -0.85 BC -0.60 BC -0.57 BC -0.60 -0.50 -0.50 -0.70
Grebner 6.88 6.88 7.13 7.16 7.23 7.33 7.33 6.79
-1.00 -1.00 BC -0.75 BC -0.72 BC -0.75 -0.65 -0.65 -0.85
W-Terminal 6.73 6.73 6.98 7.01 7.08 7.18 7.18 6.64
-0.50 -0.50 -0.70
Andover 7.33 7.33 6.79
-0.93 -0.93 BC -0.68 BC -0.65 BC -0.68 -0.58 -0.58 -0.78
Bristol 6.80 6.80 7.05 7.08 7.15 7.25 7.25 6.71
-1.00 -1.00 BC -0.75 BC -0.72 BC -0.75 -0.65 -0.60 -0.80
Berlin 6.73 6.73 6.98 7.01 7.08 7.18 7.23 6.69
-1.05 -1.05 BC -0.80 BC -0.77 BC -0.80 -0.70 -0.70 -0.90
Columbia 6.68 6.68 6.93 6.96 7.03 7.13 7.13 6.59
-1.00 -1.00 -0.80 -0.77 -0.80 -0.65 -0.65 -0.85
Mclaughlin 6.73 6.73 6.93 6.96 7.03 7.18 7.18 6.64
-1.10 -1.10 BC -0.85 BC -0.82 BC -0.85 -0.55 -0.55 -0.75
Roscoe 6.63 6.63 6.88 6.91 6.98 7.28 7.28 6.74
-0.85 -0.85 BC -0.60 BC -0.57 BC -0.60 -0.50 -0.50 -0.70
Mellette 6.88 6.88 7.13 7.16 7.23 7.33 7.33 6.79
-0.89 -0.89 BC -0.68 BC -0.65 BC -0.68 BC -0.58 BC -0.58 BC -0.78
Cresbard 6.84 6.84 7.05 7.08 7.15 7.25 7.25 6.71
-1.02 -1.02 BC -0.77 BC -0.74 BC -0.77 -0.72 -0.72 -0.92
Miranda 6.71 6.71 6.96 6.99 7.06 7.11 7.11 6.57
-0.90 -0.90 BC -0.65 BC -0.62 BC -0.65 -0.57 -0.57 -0.77
Mansfield 6.83 6.83 7.08 7.11 7.18 7.26 7.26 6.72
-0.87 -0.87 BC -0.62 BC -0.59 BC -0.64 -0.56 -0.56 -0.76
Redfield 6.86 6.86 7.11 7.14 7.19 7.27 7.27 6.73
-0.83 -0.83 BC -0.58 BC -0.55 BC -0.58 -0.48 -0.48 -0.68
Wolsey 6.90 6.90 7.15 7.18 7.25 7.35 7.35 6.81
-0.83 -0.83 BC -0.58 BC -0.55 BC -0.58 -0.48 -0.48 -0.68
Alpena 6.90 6.90 7.15 7.18 7.25 7.35 7.35 6.81
-0.90 -0.90 BC -0.65 BC -0.62 BC -0.65 -0.60 -0.60 -0.80
St Lawrence 6.83 6.83 7.08 7.11 7.18 7.23 7.23 6.69
-0.85 -0.85 -0.60 -0.57 -0.60 -0.55 -0.55 -0.75
Highmore 6.88 6.88 7.13 7.16 7.23 7.28 7.28 6.74
-1.05 -1.05 -0.80 -0.77 -0.80 -0.75 -0.75 -0.95
Kennebec 6.68 6.68 6.93 6.96 7.03 7.08 7.08 6.54
-0.86 -0.86 BC -0.61 BC -0.58 BC -0.61 -0.56 -0.56 -0.76
Huron 6.87 6.87 7.12 7.15 7.22 7.27 7.27 6.73
-0.86 -0.86 BC -0.61 BC -0.58 BC -0.61 -0.53 -0.53 -0.73
Yale 6.87 6.87 7.12 7.15 7.22 7.30 7.30 6.76
-0.93 -0.93 BC -0.68 BC -0.65 BC -0.68 -0.58 -0.58 -0.78
Cavour 6.80 6.80 7.05 7.08 7.15 7.25 7.25 6.71
-0.95 -0.95 BC -0.70 BC -0.67 BC -0.70 -0.60 -0.60 -0.80
Tulare 6.78 6.78 7.03 7.06 7.13 7.23 7.23 6.69
-0.95 -0.95 BC -0.70 BC -0.67 BC -0.70 -0.60 -0.60 -0.80
Wes Springs 6.78 6.78 7.03 7.06 7.13 7.23 7.23 6.69
-0.86 BC -0.86 BC -0.61 BC -0.58 BC -0.61 BC -0.53 BC -0.53 BC -0.73
Willow Lake 6.87 6.87 7.12 7.15 7.22 7.30 7.30 6.76

[SASKFARMER3]

Why did I post the last one to show the CWB supporters that their is the price at every elevator in SD and what HRS wheat is worth. Basically you could lock in 7.33 and deliver Dec 25% Jan 25% Feb 25% and March 25%. Will your beloved CWB get you 7.33 in your pocket. Yea with 2 dollar initial they need to make up $5.33 in next two years. Yea I have some nice ocean front property in Arizona. %$@@%@.

[TOM4CWB]

SF3;

At $297/t for 1 DNS14px wheat... $57/t basis nets $240/t.

$6.50/bu... PPO price...

Things are looking up... The PNW price is only US$11.21/bu!

Thats only $425/t.

Here is US Wheats Sept 17/10 take on this:

"Wheat prices were up sharply this week, buoyed by rising corn prices more than offsetting lower than expected export sales. CBOT nearby prices gained 35 cents, closing at $7.40/bu. KCBT gained 21 cents on the week, closing at $7.68/bu, while MGEX gained 28 cent, to $7.71/bu. CBOT corn prices gained 65 cents, closing at $5.14/bu, due to continued concerns over tight corn supplies. CBOT soy prices were 51 cents higher, closing at $10.70/bu.

Concern over the US durum harvest has slowed trade of higher grade durum to a halt. Elevators are reportedly hoarding higher quality durum until this year's crop is completley harvested.

Two killer frosts have hit northern Alberta, most likely damaging the provinces grain crops. The Canadian grains harvest is the furthest behind its been in the last six years. Continued wet weather is keeping farmers out of their fields and is also delaying the harvest in Montana and western North Dakota.

US exporters are reportedly turning away nearby business due to the tight loading capacity in the nearby months of October and November. Some inland logistical issues are being caused by a slow down of corn and soybean inspections at the Gulf. Quality discrepancies between upcountry elevators and export elevators have many traders requesting re-inspection of cargoes. The tying up of railcars is affecting exports as far away as the Pacific Northwest.

The price of HRS 14.0 protein wheat is on the rise due to increased demand for higher protein wheat by domestic millers and exporters for blending with lower protein stocks. Concerns over the declining quality of the portions of the HRS crop that are still uncut are also raising premiums, especially in the Pacific Northwest.

US Export sales were below trader expectations this week putting some downward pressure on wheat prices. Net sales reached 484,600 MT, well below trade estimates of 850,000 to 1,250,000 MT. Increases were reported for Unknown Destinations (220,001 HRW and 21,000 HRS), Peru (70,600 HRW adn 15,000 SRW), Japan (33,763 HRW, 573 HRS, and 33,735 white), South Korea (11,100 HRW, 17,900 HRS, and 28,400 white), Libya (51,429 HRW), Indonesia (1,000 HRW, 10,250 HRS, and 40,000 white), and Italy (28,901 HRS and 20,473 durum).
The Dollar Index fell to 81.39 on Friday, up from 82.74 a week ago. The dollar was hit by a strengthening Japanese Yen.
The Baltic Panamax dropped to 2,928 this week, down from 3,396 a week ago. The index is being driven down by negative sentiment due to new ships coming online."