Lentil Harvest & Commentary - Kevin Hursh

[charliep]

Suspect Indian has some of the same disease issues we do. You also
have to separate their Khariff crops (summer/hot/monsoon season) and
their rabi season (winter/cooler/drier). The rabi season will be planted
over the next few weeks/harvested Feb./Mar. and are more like what we
grow here.

[dave4441]

Indian and Turkey do not have ascohyta/anthracnose issues becuase it is produced under very dry conditions normally. They have other issues, I believe stemphylium being on of them. India is a very hot country in general. Off the top of me head. I think they onl get 10 bu crops or so, because of the heat.

The problem I see with the mkt is that Turkey harvested 550,000 MT (or somewhere in that area) this june, 350 previous year and 55 the year before that. India was also very hot buyer previous 2 yrs. Turkey for now is not buying reds where the previous 2 crops in Canada had both Turkish (especially Turkish demand) and Indian demand. India today is where a large portion of the current shipping is going and they have been selling there purchases back to Canada prior to the weather issues in Canada this fall, becuase they anticipate a good crop (remember that India has been a long term net EXPORTER of lentils) (rabi-planted dec, harvested feb) becuase of current moisture conditions and because they have a pile of producted being shipped for them now. Today red mkt is extremely limited for actual demand/new sales, and for most buyers wanting product to sail in dec/jan, they have to buy today.

You can slice up the current red production anyway you want but reality is there is big acres and some big yields. Also some 0 yields, but acreage will likely compensate. Austrailia can be a wild card, and mkt is currently trying to figure out where that crop sits, as it was one of the things that drove lentil proces last fall in Canada. Heat wave.

Anything can hit the mkt as new info over the next few weeks and change what I have said here, but feeling we grind lower on reds with current info. Some companies were in a major shipping squeeze and took losses to get product moving and meet vessels commitments.

[dave4441]

Checking-missed your question. Moonson rains are now and prior to the Rabi crop. Rabi crop (lentils) uses rain from moonsoon during Kariff crop and tends to be the drier season. Very little pulses grown during the kariff crop, except pigeon peas, which are grown during kariff crop. Green lentils of course are the substitite for pigeon peas. Rabi is desi and lentils.

India is less bullish because current Kariff moisture levels are good so anticapte better then avg conditions for Rabi crop. Anything can change that as feb is a long ways off.

[checking]

Thank you charliep and dave441.

Makes sense compared to a predictable monsoon stop that allows for a dry harvesting period.

Have a safe one.

[riders2010]

No risk to grower with act of God??? Yeah no crop someone is gonna pay the imputs? That's the biggest pile of bullshit going that the producer has no risk. Less crop the end users pass it on to the consumer, less crop for producer what happens? nothing take what is given. All contracts we sign are a gift for the end users they know how high they can rip the consumer that's all.

Look at all the lentils locked in at 20 cents and the market is header where, who's benefiting from that risk, sure as hell isn't the producer that locked in.