Round 2 of Statistics Canada Crop Production Estimates

[charliep]

Another round of statistics Canada crop production estimates. Will leave to discussion. Not likely to have any market impact - declines in US prices the major factor these days.

[URL="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/101004/t101004a1-eng.htm"]September Crop Production Estimate[/URL]

[mbratrud]

Do you really think traders are going to take this very seriously? Survey was done before any the true impact realized from the September from hell.

Canola that layed through 3 weeks of rain still looks ok but lost about 20% of it's weight. Early harvest we could haul 27 tonnes of Canola with our Semi, now can only get 23 tonnes on. Then there was lots of late Canola that had its yiled trimmed by frost. Lentils Yeilds lost 20 - 30% to sprouting and shelling. Flax was touched with frost. Flax looks to be yielding 20% less than last year (last year being exceptional for most). I have heard lots of 10 - 15 bushel crops. Oat and Barley Numbers seem high from what ive seen. J1MO. Next report should be more reflective of actual.

[wd9]

Wonder how much viable malt barley there is out there?

[charliep]

For us s&d types, perhaps one of the most interesting parts is not 2010 but rather 2009/some of the adjustments to get rid of the negative dockage on canola.

[charliep]

wd9

Will be a challenge. Heard the expression if germinates, it malts. Not quite that easy but selection criteria will be adjusted to reflect realities. Export market will be interesting to see how far they will reduce standards and quality of our competitors. Aussie quality will need to be followed over the next couple of months.

[bucket]

Howard leaman calls the lowest production in flax and oats in five years neutral to bearish. Does anyone get that comment?

Flax is still a long way from the bin in this area and was green when it froze. Local marketing reps have said any new crop they have seen is grading a two.

[mbratrud]

It is clear they don't really have a good handle on how much of the 09 crop went for feed. there was a significant portion of that crop harvested in November in very tough conditions. Nobody every brags about how much Canola heated on their farm!

[agstar77]

You will notice the forecast for soybeans. Manitoba will have a record crop and I expect acreage to push out more canola acres next year. Canola seed suppliers are frantically phoning to get us to book canola seed for next year. Combine this with increasing N prices and crappy fall fertilizing conditions , there could be an explosion in soybean acres.

[SASKFARMER3]

With the fert going up for no reason except pigs trying to screw us again. Canola is getting to point its a money looser. Sorry, back when we use to get 40 and use edge and seed decent varieties we made money lots and now the seed and fert and chem companies make and stupid farmers loose. Reality is this crop is now a dud.

[fjlip]

Like Larry says...
"In Saskatchewan alone, the estimates for non seeded and non-harvested acres are 12 million. STATSCAN is using less than 12 million acres for all of western Canada. Non seeded acres are an estimate but they haven't balanced since their last report in August. Provincial governments will have actual data basis crop insurance. For western Canadian farmers it is like the Oblivious game show tag line: The game show you don’t even know you are on. Just like wheat marketing."

Why don't all prov crop insurance talk to Statscan? Something stinks! Call your MLA's.

[bucket]

fjlip

When I asked statscan why they don't ask crop insurance about unseeded acres, they responded by saying that is a privacy issue.

So I told them I can't answer their survey for the exact same reasons - its a privacy issue.

They are all morons.