Morning article and its getting sick this BS of our price goes up pennies so let the screwing begin.
Nitrogen to lead gains in fertilizer prices
Nitrogen looks the most likely of the major fertilizers to see further price rises, supported by a clampdown on Chinese production and a lift in Ukrainian output costs, Credit Suisse has said.
The bank lifted its forecast for both nitrogen and phosphate prices over the next two years following the rise in crop prices, which had shifted farmers mindset "from one that is focused on conserving costs to one that looks to maximise yields".
Projections for prices for potash, the other of the big three nutrients, were kept at previous levels, foreseeing a gentle rise through 2011 and 2012.
However, while even Credit Suisse's upgraded hopes for phosphate implied a decline in prices from current levels of $525-550 a tonne, its outlook for nitrogen implied continued gains.
Prices of ammonia, one of the main nitrogen products, will average $430 a tonne in 2012, recovering most of the ground lost during the collapse of the 2007-08 price spike.
'Room to move higher'
Relative to prices of corn, "nitrogen prices have room to move higher, with urea looking cheap", the bank said. It added that potash prices had "started to look attractive", and that those of phosphate appeared "reasonable".
Credit Suisse forecasts for fertilizer prices
2012: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $430 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $440 a tonne; potash, (Vancouver spot) $405 a tonne
2011: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $410 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $485 a tonne; potash, (Vancouver spot) $335 a tonne
2010: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $355 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $480 a tonne; potash, $305 a tonne
For nitrogen, "the supply side continues to look tight, while Ukrainian production costs have moved higher," the bank said.
Output in Ukraine, one of the world's key producers, has been lifted by a retreat in a favourable natural gas pricing regime.
Production of nitrogen, which unlike phosphate and potash is not mined, is particularly energy intensive. Indeed, power restrictions have prompted the shutdown of a series of Chinese plants, with much of what spare production there is expected to be shipped to India.
Supplies from Iran have been held back by an explosion at the Pardis 1 plant in the south of the country in August.
'Positive for potash'
Phosphate prices, meanwhile, faced the headwind of supplies from the Saudi Arabiab Ma'aden project which, while unlikely to launch this year as previously expected, was likely to begin commercial production late in 2011.
Furthermore, a legal challenge which has shut down a Mosaic phosphate mine in Florida should be resolved by the second half of next year, "adding additional supply and therefore price pressure".
Potash prices looked set to be boosted longer-term by a consolidation trend which has seen Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton bid for Canada's PotashCorp and may see Russia's top producers, Silvinit and Uralkali, merge.
"We see this as positive for potash prices, given the less disciplined selling behaviour exhibited by Silvinit over the past year," Credit Suisse said.
So here is one grow Soybeans and oats and peas and lentils.
This year 100 plus oats (actually 100 is normal) costs $45 an acre to grow will wait till spring to sell since the 6 guys that grew it this year only one will sell the rest are waiting till Jan or on for $4.
That's a $355 acre profit vs Canola even in great year is getting less profitable. Simply the notion that farmers are going to go for big yields with a carrot of $1 rise a bushel for most crops is BS. Boys their needs to be a bigger carrot or simply tell them all to screw themselves grow less and then watch the prices go up. Supply and Demand.
They want to eat if we keep giving them cheap supply they don't care. Cut them off like the oil embargo did and wow we win and win big time.
Farmers its up to you believe the BS to increase production or say Screw it and have fun remember keep the farmers poor with a carrot that you must keep producing.
Im with screw it! have a fun day and be safe.
Nitrogen to lead gains in fertilizer prices
Nitrogen looks the most likely of the major fertilizers to see further price rises, supported by a clampdown on Chinese production and a lift in Ukrainian output costs, Credit Suisse has said.
The bank lifted its forecast for both nitrogen and phosphate prices over the next two years following the rise in crop prices, which had shifted farmers mindset "from one that is focused on conserving costs to one that looks to maximise yields".
Projections for prices for potash, the other of the big three nutrients, were kept at previous levels, foreseeing a gentle rise through 2011 and 2012.
However, while even Credit Suisse's upgraded hopes for phosphate implied a decline in prices from current levels of $525-550 a tonne, its outlook for nitrogen implied continued gains.
Prices of ammonia, one of the main nitrogen products, will average $430 a tonne in 2012, recovering most of the ground lost during the collapse of the 2007-08 price spike.
'Room to move higher'
Relative to prices of corn, "nitrogen prices have room to move higher, with urea looking cheap", the bank said. It added that potash prices had "started to look attractive", and that those of phosphate appeared "reasonable".
Credit Suisse forecasts for fertilizer prices
2012: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $430 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $440 a tonne; potash, (Vancouver spot) $405 a tonne
2011: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $410 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $485 a tonne; potash, (Vancouver spot) $335 a tonne
2010: ammonia, (Yuzhny) $355 a tonne; DAP, (Northern Africa), $480 a tonne; potash, $305 a tonne
For nitrogen, "the supply side continues to look tight, while Ukrainian production costs have moved higher," the bank said.
Output in Ukraine, one of the world's key producers, has been lifted by a retreat in a favourable natural gas pricing regime.
Production of nitrogen, which unlike phosphate and potash is not mined, is particularly energy intensive. Indeed, power restrictions have prompted the shutdown of a series of Chinese plants, with much of what spare production there is expected to be shipped to India.
Supplies from Iran have been held back by an explosion at the Pardis 1 plant in the south of the country in August.
'Positive for potash'
Phosphate prices, meanwhile, faced the headwind of supplies from the Saudi Arabiab Ma'aden project which, while unlikely to launch this year as previously expected, was likely to begin commercial production late in 2011.
Furthermore, a legal challenge which has shut down a Mosaic phosphate mine in Florida should be resolved by the second half of next year, "adding additional supply and therefore price pressure".
Potash prices looked set to be boosted longer-term by a consolidation trend which has seen Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton bid for Canada's PotashCorp and may see Russia's top producers, Silvinit and Uralkali, merge.
"We see this as positive for potash prices, given the less disciplined selling behaviour exhibited by Silvinit over the past year," Credit Suisse said.
So here is one grow Soybeans and oats and peas and lentils.
This year 100 plus oats (actually 100 is normal) costs $45 an acre to grow will wait till spring to sell since the 6 guys that grew it this year only one will sell the rest are waiting till Jan or on for $4.
That's a $355 acre profit vs Canola even in great year is getting less profitable. Simply the notion that farmers are going to go for big yields with a carrot of $1 rise a bushel for most crops is BS. Boys their needs to be a bigger carrot or simply tell them all to screw themselves grow less and then watch the prices go up. Supply and Demand.
They want to eat if we keep giving them cheap supply they don't care. Cut them off like the oil embargo did and wow we win and win big time.
Farmers its up to you believe the BS to increase production or say Screw it and have fun remember keep the farmers poor with a carrot that you must keep producing.
Im with screw it! have a fun day and be safe.
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