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Did you know? #2

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    Did you know? #2

    The Contingency Fund was established to underwrite the Producer Pricing Option programs to ensure that program operating gains or losses will not impact the pool accounts.



    The way it was meant to work: when the CWB determines the prices for Fixed Price Contracts and other PPOs, it always includes a discount for risk. It takes a little protection. So if all goes well, it has some money left over after paying farmers the contract price. That something extra goes into the Contingency Fund. If the CWB loses money – even after the discount for risk – the losses are covered by the Contingency Fund. This flow between the PPOs and the Contingency Fund is what was envisioned.



    But the Contingency Fund of today looks very different than what was conceived back in 2000.



    The largest “contributor” to the Fund is “cash trading” in feed barley with a total so far of $22.2 million. About $20 million from feed barley trading went into the Fund in 2007-08 alone.



    The second largest source of money is interest revenue from the feed barley pool account. Starting in 2001-02, the CWB said it did it to “avoid distorting the price relationship between feed and designated barley.” The CWB moves feed barley interest into the Contingency Fund almost every year now, the total so far is $19 million.



    Even though the purpose of the Fund was to ensure that PPOs would not impact the pool accounts, in practice the pool accounts have been hit a few times by transfers to and from the Fund. In 2004-05, $7.5 million was transferred from the Fund to the pool accounts. In 2007-08, the CWB moved $25.5 million from the pool accounts into the Fund and $18.0 million back into the pool accounts in the following year.



    Perhaps most notable is the fact that the PPOs have been a drain on the Fund to the tune of $72.1 million since it started.



    If it wasn’t for barley – both pool interest and cash trading – the CWB would’ve been forced to find some other source of revenue to prop up the Fund. Barley (in one form or another) has contributed about $48 million while wheat and durum have drawn the Fund down by about $42 million.



    Doesn’t it make you wonder? When the CWB discounts the prices it pays farmers in the PPOs as a form of protection, why has the CWB lost so much money over the years in PPOs? So much in fact that it has had to subsidize the Contingency Fund over and over again with other sources of revenue. Even from the pool accounts.



    There’s got to be a better way.





    John De Pape

    #2
    Does the CWB get premiums in barley?


    They say they do. They have studies that say they do. The one they refer to the most was done in 2005 by Drs. Schmitz, Schmitz and Gray (I’ll call them SSG).



    SSG says the CWB gets more from malt barley sales than a “multiple-seller” market environment would. They say that between 1995-96 and 2003-04, the CWB earned an average “additional earning” of $35.25/t on 6-row malt barley and $40.29/t on 2-row malt barley. Dr. Richard Gray (the “G” in SSG) told me that the study showed that the CWB gets no premiums for feed barley. According to Dr. Gray, these additional earnings on malt barley are part of the malt premium over feed barley. SSG says that without the CWB, these “additional earnings” – the malt premium – will disappear.



    SSG took a theoretical, econometric approach to this problem. I took a simpler approach. I compared the pool returns in each of the years they studied and compared them to the average domestic feed barley price in central Saskatchewan (around Saskatoon), which is about as close as you can get to the lowest priced feed barley in the country. If the CWB prices are going to shine, this is where they will shine.



    The CWB’s 2-row malt barley price averaged only $7.38/t over feed and the 6-row malt barley price averaged $6.98/t under (yes – UNDER) the lowest priced feed barley in the country.



    This data shows that the CWB “malt premium” over feed is the smallest malt premium of any major barley producing region in the world.

    If, as SSG says, the malt barley price would drop $35 to $40/t without the CWB, this means that, without the CWB, the malt barley price in western Canada would be lower than the feed barley price.

    That doesn’t happen anywhere else in the world; why would it happen here?



    When a study using a sophisticated economical model says one thing (such as big premiums) and a simple look at real prices says another (such as no premiums) which should we believe?



    We also need to ask the farmer-elected CWB directors – what are they doing to improve the malt premium over feed?



    You can download a copy of the SSG study from http://www.kis.usask.ca/publications/pub-cwbliterature.html

    Saskatchewan cash barley prices are available at http://agriculture.gov.sk.ca/MarketTrends

    CWB pool prices are available at http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/payments/historical/

    Comment


      #3
      ggust....please quit with the facts. They keep complicating things.

      Comment


        #4
        Yeah, Hows a pro borg supporter supposed
        to support their positions when all their
        holy grails are shown to be false?

        Comment


          #5
          Barley money at the CWB is too good, and there is more to come from the looks of it. Privateers are already crying a river, about the evil CWB. Me thinks there is an election underway!!!!!!

          Comment


            #6
            Burbert

            You got it right again. Barley has been a milk cow for the CWB to top up the PPO
            contingency fund. These are questions that should be asked the candidates in
            the CWB director elections.

            Comment


              #7
              Will be curious to see how much of the current rally gets built into feed barley prices (and for that matter feed wheat). Note Larry's comments about US corn futures potentially getting up towards $6/bu. Basis on the west coast a $1 over. Corn prices export position USD $7/bu or USD $280/tonne.

              I assume both feed wheat and barley at Vancouver should be a similar price (leaving out currency). $80 to $100/tonne back to local elevator. Prairie feed grain prices $190/tonne or $4/bu feed barley or $5/bu feed wheat.

              This is why this topic is important.

              Comment

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