Pay Attn to Fert

[countryguy]

I know everyone is still busy out there but take a minute to keep an eye on fert prices. Dealer said prices really taking off. Had to buy yesterday. Paid $228 for 28. Must take delivery by end of month.

[ado089]

When was the last time your dealer told you the price was coming down and to hold off buying?

[countryguy]

My dealer isn't a corporate bastard. He works FOR the farmer.

[dave4441]

Have heard that 28-0-0 is up to $300/MT now at some locations. And Phosphate has jumped from $620 to $720.

[LWeber]

Corn has the potential to move 50-75 cents higher and have longer term ramifications than just 2010.

How many of you want to gamble that fertilizer prices will be lower in the spring?

Use your BB as a phone and book some.

Burbert: A BB is a handheld device capable of receiving instant grain quotes for those that want to manage their business themselves.

[ado089]

Where in the world was there a good enough crop to drive up input costs? You need a quantity to multiply that nice price by to get profit. They'll play their games to see who will bite but at the end of the day even though grain prices are high this is a low earnings year at the farmgate and they won't get away with rampant prices this year. These fert companies can piss off and get their own financing instead of using ours to bank roll their ass'. Make them sweat their buisness follows the the profit=price X quantity equation our does.

[cottonpicken]

The world doesn't stop spinning for western canada. Keep your eye on the ball nitrogen is still cheap and way below its highs.

[ado089]

Between drought and flooding where in the world was there a good crop this year?

[charliep]

Is a 155.8 bu/ac corn crop and a 44.4 bu bean crop all that bad. Smaller than anticipated but still a good crop. The demand is doing as much to pull crop prices higher as any shortage in supplies.

My rough numbers have me multiplying a 160 bu/acre yield times $5/bu. What would you spend on fertizer if you thought you had the opportunity to gross $800/acre?

[charliep]

Perhaps one of the strangest converstations is to have people talk about cutting back on fertilizer in some threads and going wall to wall canola in another thread. Perhaps lack understanding but if I were to grow canola, I would throw the inputs to a reasonable level based on returns per dollar spent. If I didn't want to spend the money, I would grow a cheaper crop with less risk.

[charliep]

Should go in another thread but an interesting comment is that a 5 % decline in US corn production is likely to result in a 10 to 20 % increase in prices. Pretty good return.

[dalek]

Charliep not disagreeing with your premise but for a lot of corn growers in the corn belt or even parts of southwestern Ontario, take that $800 gross, subtract $300 rent, subtract $80-100 seed, then start adding up the rest

[vvalk]

Just sold some $13.30 nexera and $11.60 regular canola. I see wheat hit $7 a bus on FPC. Doesn't take much yield to make a profit. With prices where they at I would think fert could still increase 50% whether you have a crop or not

[ry0972]

We just covered our 2011 needs so it will hold steady then drop $100/T in spring!!! LOL
Have to get fert bins empty by Tues.
Didn't take long to spend the 2010 income!!!
NuGlo, Invigor seed and fert paid for, Liberty booked (NO 864L TOTES FOR 2011 !!! WTF, give your Bayer rep H$ll if you talk to one.
Undecided on fuel for now.
If Canola hits $15 I might start dreaming of some newer iron or a shop again.
Otherwise hands in pockets at sales and try and stay debt free and wait for the crash.

[furrowtickler]

What happened to all the glut of left over fert in western canada from spring? Just vanish? Every fert plant here (dry and liquid) is full to the nuts of cheap fert from spring and has been for months. It is a free for all for those fukers right now... Touch your toes boys and happy thanks giving, cause we about to get'er with a smile and a hand shake.