What Would We Talk About IF?

[DogPatch]

If we didn't have the weather, CWB, Input costs and Grading against us, what would be talk about? What if the Grass wasn't greener (or NOT) across the border, then what?

WHY is it that 95% or better of the discussion on here is so negative?

Anyone interested in starting an e- mobile therapist service?

[furrowtickler]

So.... I'll try again, how 'bout that canola , started lower then finshed higher again. Exciting to watch, no one i've talked to can remember canola staying this strong through harvest then continue with gains right after harvest.

[TOM4CWB]

DogPatch,

How about thinking... IF;

Your marketer wasted $$$millions of your money... by gov. decree... brainwashing 'designated area' grain growers to believe they extract a premium... when it is all too obvious this marketer price discounts instead...

Why exactly wouldn't many of us be offended... and express that openly with anyone... BECAUSE WE ARE NOT ALLOWED ANY CHOICE BUT THE ALTERNATIVE OF JAIL!?

ALL I ever expect of the CWB is ... TO BE HONEST... with 'designated area' grain growers.

[samhill]

Dogpatch, maybe someone could give us an update on
S. America and the rest of the crops grown in the
southern Hemi, as this is the next fundamental. i've
been looking for info on S. America,there was lots of
news on it last year, when a huge, huge, crop was
forecast. This year - not so much.
Maybe someone has a link, or maybe it's just that you
have to pay a marketing guru as I don't subscribe to
any.I see reports that Australia has a large crop, not in
Western Oz as it is dry there.

[btjadenlepp]

Typically samhill, yes, good market
analysis does cost something. If it's done
properly it can help your farm be more
profitable, just like many other crop
inputs.

[parsley]

Here's what we'd talk about:

October was very special. It has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays all in 1 month. This happens once in 823 years. Pars

[samhill]

Therefore or thusly, I analyze the S. American crop is
crap, and the gurus don't want us to know it.

[charliep]

Quote from today's emalt publication.

“A business has to be involving, it has to be fun, and it has to exercise your creative instincts.”
Richard Branson

Actually very early in the South American soybean season with seeding just starting (seeding period October to January) with conditions in most places good. La nina will have to be followed. Demand (not weather) the reason soybeans and its products prices are staying high.

[parsley]

Here are excerpts from EU Market Commentary by H M Gauger, Berlin:

Global Grain Markets: "...USDA crop and S/D estimates were considered extremely bullish."

"The ending stocks of coarse grains at 163 Mill. tons will be at the second lowest level historically, equal to 53 days of usage."

"In Europe the grain crop amounted to 272 Mill. tons in the EU, 21 Mill. less than last year, and to 112 Mill. tons in the CIS, 51 Mill. tons lower than in 2009. Barley crops were 53 (last year 62) Million tons in the EU,
9 (11,6) Mill. tons in the Ukraine and 8,5 (18) Mill. tons in Russia."

"Russia imposed an embargo on grain exports. The Ukraine has already exported 2 Mill. tons of barley, but has now introduced a quota system for exports. Only 200.000 tons more can be exported till end 2010. World barley demand must be covered by the EU, Canada and Australia."

"The USDA estimates total barley demand of the season at 9,6 Mill. tons for North Africa and the Middle East, of which more than half must still be bought. The EU holds 5,5 Mill. tons barley in intervention."

" By end November 2,7-2,8 Mill. tons will probably be offered to the open market. These supplies are urgently required by domestic and off-shore markets."

[samhill]

OK.
Charlie, from the little bit of info I can find, it's very
late planting in parts of SA due to dry.

Pars, thanks for the reply. Is there a date attached to
Gauger's Commentary or is it old news?
No real mention in the commentary re: S. Hemi.

I'm hoping Dogpatch will contibute.

[parsley]

October,2010 Pars

[parsley]

samhill, I have an up to date pdf that has some SA info if you want to email me at
parsley@xplornet.com

[samhill]

Thanks for the offer Pars, I only do e-mail with
family. Got on too many e-mail lists by giving my
address to a friend whom I specifically asked to not
give my address to anyone.