Lentil Price Prediction

[JoeyPotato]

With lentils being the standout winner over the last
few years, reds in particular, are the good times
over?

It seems we are in a price slide. Have we found a
bottom for lower quality lentils? X3 for under 20c
seems cheap. Every other commodity has rallied but
lentils seem to be a dog.

Does anyone have any bold predictions? I think we
have found a bottom, but I am not expecting a rally
anytime soon. Sideways till Dec then a bounce back
to low 20c for X3. I hope I'm wrong.

Lets get some lentil talk going.

Also, Larry, some of us are still waiting for our
sandwiches from your last years prediction of a
high of 27c for a #2 red.

Cheers.

[JohnGalt]

Joey, here is your very own recipe for healthy eating.

Butter some bread, go to your bin and grab a handful of lentils. Put the two together and you have a nice, tasty sprouted lentil sandwich. (grasshoppers are added protien).

Pretty soon there will be no specific grade of red lentils, only a price offered for whatever spec lentils you have.

I think you should hold all your lentils for atleast a year, hoping for some magic number that may appear.

[JDGreen]

Im not sure I understand your point Joey. I have have marketed reds at 30, 29, and 28 cents for #2's and 23 cents for x3's.. Is this not profitable?? I also grew varieties that are in demand as seed. Will complete the deal for 500 mt of seed this week at 44 cents. While I was busy managing my business, my neighbors told me they were locking their bins waiting for more. I dont see any problem with the market other than its sluggish for many reasons other than just quality. The demand simply isn't what it was in the world for reds. Australias crop is coming this will more than likely show us where we are heading in terms of pricing with reds. I have had friends and neighbors show me samples of product I wouldn't feed to cattle. They are thinking the market will pay them 25 cents a pound for them. We are undoubtedly heading back to more traditional amount of acres as a result of the train wreck this year.

[dave4441]

JD is correct, demand is very limited. Probaly going to 20 cents for a #2, just based on demand. That is still higher then what we thought the market would have been this fall, although nature was responsible for the 28 cent pricing, not overseas demand.

The really washed out, low quality product can not be used as a splittable product, it seems and likely goes to some kind of grinding market. This leads one to believe that it probaly has to move toward pea/wheat pricing. Of course some wierd weather in jan in india can make these comments worth what you paid for them.

[JoeyPotato]

JohnGault-I agree that in the future lentils will be sold on splitting quality, and no, I am not a marketer that picks a price and holds for no other reason than to get a higher price than his neighbour.

JD Green-I asked where you thought the market was going, not where it was. I have also sold lentils at high levels this year and am also selling seed. It was extremely profitable, and continues to be, even at these levels.

Dave4441-#2 at 20c is a bold prediction, and very possible.

Its good to see some conversation on this site other than a cwb debate.

[furrowtickler]

Found a bid for .20/lb for #3's, if our sample meets the grade their gone.

[JDGreen]

Joey thank god you are making some money at it this year. Was not trying to insult anyone, but I am almost sick of the whining in my area when there was opportunity early on.

We are settling into a #3 OB market which will remain quite soft as compared to the last 24 months IMO.

[Choice2U]

I've got 1600 bu of large green feed lentils according to 3 buyers. One indicated 20% damage. They (Saskcan, Filmore, Keyser)are all suggesting I wait until the market sorts itself out and then maybe they can so some sorting and find a home for them. I am new to the terrible quality game so does anyone have any suggestions on how I should market these things? If I wait and the market is going down, that doesn't bode well for me.

[riders2010]

You see if you had a Canadian Lentil Board they wouldn't let you sell it for a year or two and your marketing problem would be taken care of for you, they would just find the lowest average price for you. Just think of the stress that would have saved you!