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Do we all think 50 plus bushels an acre is normal!!

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    Do we all think 50 plus bushels an acre is normal!!

    Meeting on Friday was very interesting. Yes the NE farmers had lower yields way lower. But funny the guys in West and South sure have a bounce in their step. It was nice to see, really nice and I am very happy for each and every one.
    Now my Financial side comes out.
    First comment from farmers in room was why aren't their Canola testing facilities in SW part of Sask. The guy was serious. Seed department explained they are concentrating on areas where production has been for last 40 years. No plans yet.
    Then Young guy beside us was talking how he will push his canola to back to back on most of his farm in 2011. Profit his comments (600 div by 12 = 50 cost grow 350 leaves 250 profit).
    Simply we learnt this year how mother nature rules the roost in NE.
    Started early then she took us out.
    Now here is my comments.
    Insurance is not available to cover $350.00 acre inputs. (350 div 9 = 39 at 70% that's almost at 60 bus 10 year average, SW growers wont have that)
    Second back to back canola opens up a can of worms. Alberta has club root look where it is around Edmonton. Longest growing area of canola next to melfort. Growers their did push rotations. Do we want that.
    The canola belt is parkland for one reason and only one reason. Cool nights with moisture. SW and South 5 to 10 cel higher temps in summer. Week of these temps and 50 is now 35 longer its 20. Again mother nature rules the roost.
    Third how many when their doing their budgets for their lenders will have 50 plucked in for most crops.
    Another comment came form a older farmer (not me) how in 2002 he put every thing into his crop (credit was easy cargill gave him 1,000,000.00 credit) The best crop every was on way conditions were perfect his agrologist was flored at how well things were progressing, early yield reports were for largest crop ever then it froze to -5 to -7 for 8 hours. Now what insurance covered that year $485,000.00 minus premium equals $447,000.
    Now what Cargill got paid all of crop insurance he had to short change and negotiate with all others. Sold land and down sized. Simply he said he survived but took on a whole new attitude. Simply PS on what all the advisers are telling you and shoot for a average crop in bonus year you'll do really good and in poor you'll survive. That was his comment survive. He ended with its amazing after following that for last 8 years he was now money in bank bought back some of his land and now income tax is a huge problem but boy was he happy. No stress.
    Toughest place to grow grain on the planet is where? You guessed it Western Canada. One shot, No mistakes!
    But with all seed sales happening Canola will be all over the west some will win big some will loose. That's farming, know your area look at long term yields and don't over spend. Simple.

    #2
    I'm not that old but I know that if you're budgeting for more that 35 bu canola and 40 bu wheat you won't last long. Between frost, drought, heat, cold, flooding, ect... you know that 15bu will come along just as easy as 50bu canola. The whole trouble with this is that it seams to be one or the other and rarely 35.

    Comment


      #3
      I both agree and disagree. It is hard for most people in the traditional canola belt to imagine that the SW can't grow decent long term canola yields. I have grown canola since 1991, every year except 2008. Worst crop ever was 2007 at 19 bpa after 6 weeks of 35c. We do not target 50-60 bpa here but 30-40 is very achievable with todays hybrids under normal conditions. As far as everyone in the SW having some jump in their step, Im not too sure about that. I've seen some pretty long faces around after guys learning their lentils are garbage and cereals are feed. So to answer the question. NO 50 bpa is not normal here.

      Comment


        #4
        JD Yea the ones I was talking with at the meeting didn't have lentils. What my spider sense is telling that wow are guys or were guys a few months back thinking farming was easy. We have neighbors that have gone from seconds to auction sale or actually had their farm listed on lane realty to going full bore. Yes sons have come home. Lots of New houses (worst investment on farm) bins and shops and Air drills, Dealer sold 8 New 3310s.
        But I guess that brings me back to my original comment have we all got to use to big crops and mother nature helped straiten us out.
        If one has booming Canola at 12 but useless lentils and Durum. Equals a below average profit year. Crop insurance is scrambling with claims yesterday as guys realize their yields and quality.
        We use to shoot for 60 wow did we ps away allot of cash. Then went with 40 and soil tests now making way more money. Follow the money if your chem agent and fert dealer equipment dealer are getting rich buying land, competing with you, your spending to much.

        Comment


          #5
          The exact same thing has been bugging me saskfarmer and I am what you would consider young. After a few excellent crops in our area many think they are invincible.

          Land is overpriced cause interest is low and crops have been good.Time to be keep costs down and be careful.

          The thing that really strikes me is how much small farmers are putting into iron. I know of a farmer who farms 1/5th of the acres I do and has as much or more invested in tractor power as I do its unreal.

          Comment


            #6
            What were finding is allot of the new boys want to be us. Its harsh but that's it funny working for 30 plus years to get here isn't looked at just what happened last few years. Cheap interest rates suck you in. Example 650000 house next door in city new guy put 120000 down and took out 30 year mortgage. Easy at today's rates but cant lock in for 30 years so when 5 years comes and interest is 10 or more (what goes up comes down and what goes down goes up) how can these payments be made at that level.
            Yes we could borrow 20,000,000.00 today I checked to buy land but buying at the top vs a few years ago where would one be. Yes it goes up in value some times but usually at historic highs their is a drop.
            Worked to many files over the years and hate to see it happen again but history does repeat it self.

            Comment


              #7
              2000 to 2004 taught us that very lesson. No more NH3 here in the fall, we put on a basic amount at seeding time now then top dress if nessesary after. We only shoot for bigger yeilds if conditions are favorable - even then one can get burnt.
              Also are staying out of the overinflated land market at this time. $60/ac cash rent here is suicide at some point, as is $1000/ac purchase. We can and do get 3 year droughts here as well as early season killing frosts. Some have very short memories.
              - 50-60 bus yeilds are achieveable but not reliable in 90% of western Canada.

              Comment


                #8
                What is the land assesment tagged to these cash
                rents?has anyone ever heard a formula to go by?

                Im pretty happy we have sub-soil moisture for next
                year because as wedino told me,you get a kink in your
                neck from looking for clouds,i know some dont want
                to hear that though.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Getting a kink looking for HOT DRY sunshine to evaporate the crop killing water off our saturated fields. 2011 seeding is very slim chance at this point.
                  No formula, just what ever the BTO greedy idiots will pay in this area, up to $60 and never seeded.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Cotton the land is assessed about 70000 to 60000 under new assessment. Not our 94000 stuff.

                    Comment

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