Marketing "Slaughter Tuesday"

[SASKFARMER3]

Well it started last Friday with problems in Ireland. Then China said its going to curb its economy Hm India up their yet china causes effect.
Got going and gained back some on Monday but today its slaughter Tuesday.
Funny how a week can change the game.
Charts have broke resistance on HRS. Etc its building on its self.
Canadian dollar down hard.
But on other side. Its raining in Australia and damaging their wheat crop. Grade losses huge. Dry in west yield lower. Argentina dry and so is Brazil watch next two weeks for Brazil.
Australia lowered its canola production. etc etc.
All meaningless the funds are running.
Like Larry says "pigs get slaughtered" hopefully all did OK.

[boarderbloke]

same crap as Fri, crushers padded their margines and line co's padded their basis, same crap different day.

[fjlip]

Dead cat bounce yesterday, over night suddenly all is negative. Herd mentality, never fails to amaze. That's "the market" working as it always does. Stairway up, elevator down, like Moe says.

[mbratrud]

Should be great for demand! Balance sheets are certainly not getting any more bearish.

None the less a reminder to us all that we are really not in the drivers seat here.

[cottonpicken]

This is what had me worried a while back.

http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?
sym=DXZ0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt
=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

A clear short term bottom in the dollar and a return
to the high line in the downtrend.

I was excited for a bit on that second gap down,the
possibility of 67 would have been quite wonderful.

But like the strippers at the rhino,so close but so
far.

[silverback]

How is it possible to go from full bore "things look good" last week to limit down today? How much of the market is now being done by automatic trades/ computers and how much by actual analysts?

It seems impossible to follow these markets anymore when not one person I read is saying sell it and the market does this. Was anyone suggesting this could happen over the last week?

Maddening.

[boarderbloke]

silverback, I am also unsure about the amout of "autotrades/computers" involved with ag commodities. But have a look at this story from CBS 60 Minutes(I don't watch the program) but found it online a day or so after it aired on Oct 10/10. IMO, it just shows how much the common people are out of the loop.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/07/60minutes/main6936075.shtml

[SASKFARMER3]

Good program on CBS. Were not even in the game.

[silverback]

One day China wants everything we got, the next day they don't?

One day supplies are down, the next day they are up?

[furrowtickler]

Selling canola with targets seems to be effective, freind had a target of $13/bus for clearfeild canola that hit on last tues overnight before Richardson put on their price protection early weds morning. I like target pricing, takes some of the day to day frustration out of marketing. I mentioned a while back that the canola market was doing fine slowly moving up, but the big jumps always cause problems. Docile bulls are easier to manage than angry bears.

[furrowtickler]

One positive about today - look for narower basis levels to lock in for the next run.

[cottonpicken]

Computers have been trading for along time,the
reference is black box,have not watched the video yet
but this is what they are talking about.

The fun times are when the rules are changed in the
middle of the game on margin requirments,that is
something you dont want to see which i just did.It has
a "cascade effect/domino effect'.

[charliep]

Have to pass along an idea Lee Mevill and I had for a marketing course. Tuition is steep at $4,000 for a farm couple plus added expenses and involves at least a week of intensive work.

The course involves going to a warm part of the world with a beach. Find a spot along the beach and a beach chair (preferably one with cold cervesa supplies close by). Observe the water very closely - is it every completely flat? I suspect there will be waves.

If you stay on the beach long enough, you will observe there is a tide. Some times of the day the tide is high (you may have to move your beach chair). Sometimes the tide is low - you have to move your chair. Pattern occurs regularly.

If there is a storm, hurricane or tsunami, you may find the ocean gets pretty wild with extremely high waves (perhaps would be called volatility if it were a futures market). You have to watch the ocean carefully with the idea of managing your risk.

When you understand the ocean, waves, tides and hurricanes, you are likely ready to come home to do better grain marketing (a graduate of the chart analyst school). No guarantees on getting a tax write off for the tuition.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, I would spend some time looking at the ICE monthly futures during 2008. Look at the range and the difference between the open (tick pointed left) and close (tick pointed right). I suspect this could be called an equivalent to a hurricane on the ocean/beach. 2010/11 - ???

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=RSF11&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=M"]monthly canola chart[/URL]

[checking]

And sometimes, charliep, you set your observation chair up in a cosy spot, and unannounced you get blown up by swamp gas. No guarantee that you come out of it alive. It's called the unknown, that even those that believe they can manage their risk will never see coming.