Marketing "Slaughter Tuesday"

[charliep]

Have to pass along an idea Lee Mevill and I had for a marketing course. Tuition is steep at $4,000 for a farm couple plus added expenses and involves at least a week of intensive work.

The course involves going to a warm part of the world with a beach. Find a spot along the beach and a beach chair (preferably one with cold cervesa supplies close by). Observe the water very closely - is it every completely flat? I suspect there will be waves.

If you stay on the beach long enough, you will observe there is a tide. Some times of the day the tide is high (you may have to move your beach chair). Sometimes the tide is low - you have to move your chair. Pattern occurs regularly.

If there is a storm, hurricane or tsunami, you may find the ocean gets pretty wild with extremely high waves (perhaps would be called volatility if it were a futures market). You have to watch the ocean carefully with the idea of managing your risk.

When you understand the ocean, waves, tides and hurricanes, you are likely ready to come home to do better grain marketing (a graduate of the chart analyst school). No guarantees on getting a tax write off for the tuition.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, I would spend some time looking at the ICE monthly futures during 2008. Look at the range and the difference between the open (tick pointed left) and close (tick pointed right). I suspect this could be called an equivalent to a hurricane on the ocean/beach. 2010/11 - ???

[URL="http://farms.com/FarmsPages/Markets/tabid/214/Default.aspx?page=chart&sym=RSF11&domain=farms&stu dies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=M"]monthly canola chart[/URL]

[checking]

And sometimes, charliep, you set your observation chair up in a cosy spot, and unannounced you get blown up by swamp gas. No guarantee that you come out of it alive. It's called the unknown, that even those that believe they can manage their risk will never see coming.

[agstar77]

In other words funds have taken profits . Waiting for a pullback to buy back and the cycle repeats. No basic change in fundamentals.

[Mjolnir]

Charlie, are you suggesting that we could see similar
moves for canola this year?
Or am I missing something?

[btjadenlepp]

Sign me up for that course and send me the
dates.

[parsley]

charliep,just provide me with the flight number and departure date that you will be taking; I'm in.

I haven't heard a word from Lee. I believe he has disowned me ever since I offerred to drive his car...... Pars.

[charliep]

I don't think the same set of fundamentals are in place to push prices to
the highs of 2008 but could be wrong - lots of stuff is going to happen
over the next year. Just highlighting the monthly trading ranges and
volatility that was in place in 2008. A mentor (Les Lyster for Albertans)
told me stable prices equate to low prices. High volatility occurs during
high price periods. Suspect that a person that admits they can't call this
market and from there sets disciplined pricing targets/acts to sell some
will be as well off as anyone and likely won't get the ulcers. Have a couple
of signups already for the marketing course - likely some learning to be
done here.

[agstar77]

Taking a course in criminology would be more useful than a marketing course. The boys that move these markets don't play by your marketing rules.

[CeePen]

The funds took their profits, did they? What stopped you from doing the same? Establish some stops under the market and you'll be as smart as they are.

[CeePen]

And don't forget, you can thank the funds for helping drive the market higher too. They've been much bigger buyers of canola than they have been short.