Could the CWB have virtually No crop to sell in 2011 2012 crop year?

[SASKFARMER3]

From replies on previous thread could it be possible that most farmers cant believe how poor of a job the CWB has done the last few years (OK since it began, but that's another thread)and will drop CWB crops from their rotation.
Were down to 38% which if Durum is screwed up this winter again we will bail so that then leaves us with just 25% CWB crops. If HRS looks poor in spring and we cant seed in 2011 we will put in Barley Oats and Canola and Peas and leave HRS for flooded out acres that don't get seeded.
All neighbors are thinking similar thoughts.
So could the CWB in for one heck of a surprise come next June.

[silverback]

Lots of talk of that around here. It's not specifically the cwb, but the way they are hammering the kids on the grades this fall is frustrating to say the least. Just heard another neighbor who delivered a little of last years poorer #1 and they at first called it #3 and were trying to tell him it could be graded worse than that!.

[bucket]

And where do you think the directive is coming from to lower grades. The CGC - they have no vested interest.

The grain company - they make money on handling, they want the grain.

Do you suppose the cwb is behind some of this.

I watched Ward's video. They sell by falling number and buy on color - its moronic.

The cwb is in a heap of trouble. Directors know nothing, the chairman(oberg) isn't doing his job, and farmers are being penalized for lack of leadership.

The cwb will destroy itself from within, and maybe that is what Ritz is waiting for.

[Burbert]

The CWB will do just fine, as it always has in the past, no matter what the desenters, say, claim, or pretend is happening. Oh look, the sky is falling, the sky is falling, chicken little, the sky is falling again and the CWB is failing, failing, again!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SASKFARMER3]

Burp fart answer a simple question why the CWB buys on color and sells on falling numbers.
Not your usual bs.

[bucket]

At only paying $2.00 per bushel and selling for $10.00 and maybe paying the farmers $6.00 in a year and a half, you can say they are doing okay.

The employees will make a salary increase but the farmers that pay the bills might be getting sick of this sorry excuse for a marketing agency.

No grain to sell = no money to pay salaries. Or do the employees go back to the government for wages????

[Fransisco]

There are more options than ever when it comes to avoiding board grains. Canola, oats, soybeans, grasses, flax, chickpeas, lentils, etc, etc

I think eventually corn will be the real board killer. Its not quite there yet but every year the varieties are getting better and better and more suited to the growing conditions in western canada.

We haven't been able to completely do away with board grains yet but every year we try to figure out how to grow less of them.

[btjadenlepp]

sorry but forward futures for wheat are
making it fairly attractive from a
relative return standpoint. and won't
durum, without any sensible pricing
signal whatsoever, make it in the ground
just because? that's what seems to
happen especially after a low-acreage
year.

this would have to be the first year
that the cwb screwed up the sales plan
in order for that to be the cause of an
acreage reduction.

it's the pulses that are looking due for
a big pullback in acres.

[parsley]

The CWB is legislatviely able to buy grain from the Americans or from China, or from Denmark etc. and market it for what they deem "reasonable".

Reasonable in the past has left the Federal government coughing up cash to pay for a deficit.

So they are legally able to establish a North Dakota Farmers Pool in the CWB system, sell their grain for them, pool the money for them, AND extract CWB salaries.

They are cunning and they can survive.

The same cannot be said about farmers in Western Canada. Pars

[bucket]

How true.

And thanks for that compliment!

[Burbert]

I've had the total opposite from the cwb. Grain that didn't make the grade last year, is getting premium grade this year. Go figure. Guess there is a difference out there between Comedian farms and what is happenin!!!!!!

[fjlip]

SF3, oh they will buy on falling number if it lowers your grade, happened in 2005, sprouted 1 CWRS standing wheat to feed. Now it's visual to lower your grade. Heads they win tails you lose!

[ajl]

It could be that corn and soy finally rids us of the CWB. Corn results are variable around here but there is getting to be more of it around here under irrigation. A cash price around 6.25/bu right now will get it planted.

[rosco]

Fjlip, where did you get falling number tests done on your wheat? Cost? How many bu did each one represent? I've asked my wheat board rep about them, he told me that they were tests that you did on half a train, or a ship compartment, not a 3 ton load. Just too labour intensive??
Rosco

[TOM4CWB]

Rosco,

Deliver wheat to Sweetgrass MT or Conrad/Shelby and find out how the rest of the world trades/sells wheat.

It is simple and has been done for half a century. ARE WE EVER SLOW and DENSE.

The first criteria is falling number... then Bu weight, ergot and Protein. Lastly damage and dockage discounts for frozen or shrunken kernels and then dockage discounts if it must be cleaned.

Year after year... frozen wheat can often still mill just fine in the US and has decent falling numbers.