14 $ Beans

[agstar77]

Goldman Sachs 6mo outlook for soybeans 14$.

[charliep]

Was at an Informa Economics market outlook conference in Memphis last week and their trading range (old crop) on soybeans futures is $12.75 to $14.75. New crop at a 50 cent/bu inverse.

Soybean oil futures trading range is 52 to 58 cents per pound (old crop. New crop trading range similar.

Front end demand from China short term, uncertainty over the South American crop in a La Nina year and the acreage battle between corn and soybeans this spring are the bullish factors. US policy on the blending credit for biodiesel (will it get passed in the lame duck session) and mandates are factors that need to be followed.

[charliep]

Anyone interested in a good update on current markets (crops and livestock) should consider going the Canadian version of the Informa outlook conference in Calgary December 2 and 3.

[URL="http://www.informaecon.com/Canada/Canadian_Conference.asp"]informa outlook conference[/URL]

[wd9]

Charlie, what are your thoughts on the price of canola over next 3 months?

I speculate not a lot of change either way.

[charliep]

Lots of uncertainty ahead (most immediate of which the strong US export and South America/La Nina) but I would expect you are right. Close on the January $535 with a trading range of $535 to $540/tonne. Likely close to a bottom but I would hazard a guess will struggle to get past the contract high of $570/tonne.

My play would be to admit I can't forecast the future and reward rallies with sales. Nothing wrong with selling $12 to $13/bu canola. Nothing wrong with storing a bit into the summer as a lottery ticket either.

[dalek]

FYI some of the more popular varieties of soybean seed in Ontario have been sold out for a month now.