Is the Video Working! You bet your ASS it is!

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

"The Dec 3 FPC was nearly $7.00. You quoted $6.33. I am not sure I understood your price offerings/comparison."

Did you actually read the post above?

US Wheat Associates Great Lakes price: Dec/10 $9.25US average. We should be looking at April delivery for time value... so I gave the CWB a benefit of $.25/bu carry I did not count.

CWB Great Lakes price:$6.33 plus ($25/t stat CWB charge) $.67/bu to get the durum to St Lawrence = $7/bu.

We have a missing $3/bu for high quality durum... any way that you want to figure it Chuckchuck.

Why do you think 'designated area' growers will not ship the durum to fill the boats?

Because THE CWB is expecting to steal that durum... at a 50 percent discount!!!




Background:

"Dec3/10 Durum;

"Durum: a range of prices are available depending upon various quality attributes.
Offers from the Lakes range from $8.98 to $9.53/bu ($330 to $350/MT) for December and $9.25 to $9.80/bu ($340 to $360/MT) in April. Gulf ports range from $10.07 to $11.16/bu ($370 to $410/MT)."

US WHEAT Associates: Dec3/10 price report.

The PRO port position... $25/t more off the 'designated area' growers freight than the greatlakes:

Dec3/10 CWB price; $278/tPRO, FPC $257.23/t.

Take off the extra transport cost and US$

Our growers are offered $6.33 for higher quality higher px durum.

Again $3/bu is missing.

Where does all this money go... CHUCKchuck?"

[chuckChuck]

Jdepape, KFT and Richard Gray would undoubtledy disagree with some or all your points. Who's right? In my opinion, KFT and Gray provided a more objective point of view. Many of your points are from a more political point of view which is fine. But what we need is objective analysis and facts with less politics.

By the way, you never answered my question about the value of the larger domestic usage in the US vs Canada? What impact does this have on US prices for US producers as they are not as dependent on export markets as we are which probably leaves us with a basket of market prices which are lower overall.

I also find it hard to believe that a wide open market into the US wouldn't have a negative impact on US prices in the absence of CWB disciplined marketing approach.

Didn't Premier Wall put up quite a fuss when BHP said they would sell potash outside of Canpotex? Originally BHP was intereted in maximizing volume and gross sales not maximizing price with more limited strategic sales in Canpotex.

[charliep]

For what its worth, the US exports 40 to 60 % of the wheat it produces.

Canada is closer to 70 %.

In 2010/11, the US will export a higher percentage of its wheat than Canada.

[URL="http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/wheat/YBtable06.asp"]US wheat exports[/URL]

[jdepape]

My comments in bold:

chuckChuck: KFT and Richard Gray would undoubtledy disagree with some or all your points. Who's right? In my opinion, KFT and Gray provided a more objective point of view. Many of your points are from a more political point of view which is fine. But what we need is objective analysis and facts with less politics.

<b>Politics? Are you serious? Where in my comments do you find politics?
I show KFT didn’t understand basis – and you say it’s political.
I show KFT didn’t understand grain handling costs – and you say it’s political.
I show Gray didn’t include storage as a CWB cost – and you say it’s political.
I show Gray made adjustments because the CWB told him to - and you say it’s political.

Amazing.

KFT and Gray were paid and “directed” by the CWB; I’m completely independent (not paid or directed by anyone for this) – and you say they provide a more objective point of view. With all due respect, do you even know the meaning of the word?

It’s clear you just don’t like what I’m saying but to say its political and less objective is just nonsensical. Since you don’t trust me, do yourself a favour and ask anyone who has actually worked in the grain handling / trading business (this does not include academics or staff at the CWB).

By the way - I worked with Daryl Kraft on a number of files for the Competition Bureau (Agricore mergers, etc). He agreed with me on the KFT study.

And I’m certain that if you asked Richard Gray, he would agree with my comments. After all, everything I said is in his report.

You think we need objective analysis and facts; please share a description of the analysis you’d like to see and what facts are relevant.</b>


By the way, you never answered my question about the value of the larger domestic usage in the US vs Canada? What impact does this have on US prices for US producers as they are not as dependent on export markets as we are which probably leaves us with a basket of market prices which are lower overall.

<b>You’re right, I didn’t. It makes no sense to go onto another topic while we’re not getting anywhere on this one.</b>


I also find it hard to believe that a wide open market into the US wouldn't have a negative impact on US prices in the absence of CWB disciplined marketing approach.

<b>”Hard to believe” falls in the category of unsubstantiated rhetoric; it does not even come close to satisfying your criteria of “objective analysis and facts with less politics”. Sorry – I have no interest in discussing with someone who’s greatest retorts are “Oh yeah?” and “Is not!” Give us some of that objective analysis you’re looking for. Please.</b>


Didn't Premier Wall put up quite a fuss when BHP said they would sell potash outside of Canpotex? Originally BHP was intereted in maximizing volume and gross sales not maximizing price with more limited strategic sales in Canpotex.

<b>More diversion. Wall and Canpotex has nothing to do with CWB’s failure to get premiums.

Remember this number:

<font color="red">Minus $3.49/tonne</font>

The CWB’s own numbers. No matter how much you argue it, it’s about as objective as you can get and there’s nothing political about it. </b>

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck.

YOU SAID:

"Didn't Premier Wall put up quite a fuss when BHP said they would sell potash outside of Canpotex? Originally BHP was intereted in maximizing volume and gross sales not maximizing price with more limited strategic sales in Canpotex."

Glad you brought that up!

Now... what did/does Premier Brad say about the CWB???

If designated area wheat/barley growers... had a quarter of the market power... Canpotex has... and worked like Canpotex and Potash in marketing power...

We obviously would not be having this debate.

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck...

By the way... Canpotex is voluntary... in case you forgot... no one goes to jail... if they sell outside the marketing alliance.

If you want to strip,

A farmers dignity,

Put him in jail,

For selling his wheat.

[SASKFARMER3]

Over 33000 hits hm someone is watching or chucky do you want to say thats political to.
Were getting screwed in western canada simple.

[TOM4CWB]

Sask,
Do you remember this?

Front Page in Saskatoon... taken in front of the Bessborough

[SASKFARMER3]

Yep that was a very very good day. But all the rallys did was start the process the video is taking it to the next level. Some day we will have fredom I hope its before Im 55.

[liberty]

JDepape said:

"I worked with Daryl Kraft on a number of files for the Competition Bureau (Agricore mergers, etc). He agreed with me on the KFT study."

Could you elaborate on this?

[jdepape]

While working with him, I had the opportunity to talk to Daryl about the KFT study. (He was one of the authors; he's the K in KFT.)

He concurred that the study was not what it could have been; upon looking at it after the fact, he agreed with my concerns and its weaknesses.

[chuckChuck]

JDepape,
See my responses to your responses.

By the way, you never answered my question about the value of the larger domestic usage in the US vs Canada? What impact does this have on US prices for US producers as they are not as dependent on export markets as we are which probably leaves us with a basket of market prices which are lower overall.

You’re right, I didn’t. It makes no sense to go onto another topic while we’re not getting anywhere on this one.

How is the nature of the US market prices not relevant if you and others are comparing US returns to CWB returns? I think you are avoiding the answer!


I also find it hard to believe that a wide open market into the US wouldn't have a negative impact on US prices in the absence of CWB disciplined marketing approach.

”Hard to believe” falls in the category of unsubstantiated rhetoric; it does not even come close to satisfying your criteria of “objective analysis and facts with less politics”. Sorry – I have no interest in discussing with someone who’s greatest retorts are “Oh yeah?” and “Is not!” Give us some of that objective analysis you’re looking for. Please.

Again I think you are avoiding the answer or don't know. All I said is that I believe disciplined selling results in higher prices. I don't have any evidence to analyse disciplined selling by the CWB versus a free for all. But I have common sense. At a basic level farmers who hold out for higher prices are using a disciplined marketing approach. Single desk sellers have the same advantage but way more power. Same kind of power that comes from Canpotex.


Didn't Premier Wall put up quite a fuss when BHP said they would sell potash outside of Canpotex? Originally BHP was intereted in maximizing volume and gross sales not maximizing price with more limited strategic sales in Canpotex.

More diversion. Wall and Canpotex has nothing to do with CWB’s failure to get premiums.

Canpotex is an example of a single desk seller that provides benefits to their producers. It is just an example that can show that single desks are used by other industries to their advantage.

Monopoly sellers of any product have an advantage. Can you purchase Canadian wheat, malt barley, and durum from any other source? No that makes the CWB a monopoly seller of Canadian grain with all the advantages small or large that come with monopoly positions.

Does BMW have a monopoly on cars. No. But if you want a BMW you will pay a BMW dealer a premium to own a BMW.

[bucket]

Hey chuckles.

What if you buy ontario or quebec wheat , is that not canadian?

The standards set by the CGC are similar so a buyer could buy from ontario or quebec without the board and buy canadian wheat , right?

And do you understand how canpotex works? If you do please explain it. And then compare it to the cwb.

And then post it.

Do you really think that mosaic, potash and agrium wait 18 months for their money?

Please get a grip on reality.

[bucket]

For comparison let's walk through the canpotex/cwb monopolies.

Canpotex is told by the producers (mosaic/agrium/potash) what to sell their product for.

The cwb takes the product from the farmers and sells it for whatever they want.

Not the same.

Canpotex actively talks with other potash partners around the world as to how to extract the most out of chinese before they sign a supply agreement.

The cwb undercuts its competitors to make sales.

Not the same.

[charliep]

chuckChuck

How can a country that represents 15 % of world wheat trade call itself a monopoly seller?

Also by way of clarification, you are saying the CWB sells all western Canadian wheat into BMW type premium markets and none into more competitive/price sensitive markets (perhaps a Chevy Cavalier equivalent market). Never understood the arguement of making the decision to stay out of the US and sell into more price competitive (read lower priced because of competition from other exports/ocean cost disadvantage) off shore markets outside the theoretical world. Not a perfect world but all open market crops flow freely in both directions without major impact on prices. If corn can flow freely both directions based on price signals, why not feed wheat and barley? Realize the issues around MCOOL and other issues over but livestock also move back and forth on a daily basis. Processed products also move across the border.

Perhaps the real kicker is 6 row malt barley moving into domestic maltsters from the US with no restrictions but restrictions on 2 row moving south (have to jump through the CWB hoops).