Is the Video Working! You bet your ASS it is!

[chuckChuck]

Bucket. Missed one word "western" How much Durum and CWRS is grown in Ontario and Quebec? Very little! I stand by my point.

Now I know it really irritates you that Brad Wall pointed out the advantages of a single desk seller of potash.

Yes they are two very different products in 2 very different markets, operating a marketing system that is not directly comparable. But the point is they work together for their collective benefit.

Unlike the open market where every farmer is competing against one another in an increasingly uncompetitive market.

Are you not all concerned about the consolidation of grain handling into fewer and fewer hands? In my area farmers are pretty frustrated with the lack of choice in grain companies.

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

You asked:

"Monopoly sellers of any product have an advantage. Can you purchase Canadian wheat, malt barley, and durum from any other source?"

Western seed growers have exported Seed Harrington 2 row malt barley for PNW growers in the US for years.

No buy-back... no cost to sell seed so US growers can have the same quality as 'designated area' CWB producers.

Same goes with all genetic seed stocks... IF the CWB WERE actually extracting a premium... US growers would grow and supply the CWB premium market with the same exact quality.

We do this with pedigreed seed... genetic purity guaranteed. Exports are premium $$$ sales for 'designated area' seed growers... found money. Often these folks just south of the US border even have better harvest and planting conditions than we have to produce even higher quality than Canadian produce.

[bucket]

chuckles

Would you care to explain how canpotex works? How it sets its sales?

Who actually sets the price of potash?

Please explain. I would like to see your understanding of how it works.

Then we can have a discussion. But until then, get your head out of your ass about the cwb being the same as canpotex. Because they are not.

[jdepape]

chuckChuck:

I'm a linear thinker – I don’t want to go on to other topics or items until I get resolution on the one at hand. You keep wanting to bring in other issues – yes, somewhat related – yet, the issue at hand is still hanging there, unresolved. To do justice to it, let’s settle it once and for all then move on. We’ll get to the other items soon enough, and do justice to them – I’m not avoiding anything, I just want to make sure we’ve accomplished something on the topic at hand before we go on.

<b>The CWB reported its cost to market wheat in 08-09 was $10.14/tonne. (Not handling, not freight.)
The CWB reported its “premiums” on wheat in 08-09 was $6.65/tonne.

This represents a loss of $3.49/tonne on every tonne marketed, or $55.6 million on the wheat pool. </b>

If you refute this, please say so and tell us why. Perhaps you have some information that the rest of us don't.

But if you can’t refute it, then please say so. You say you have common sense; then please use it and share your choice – refute or accept; either way we can then move on to other topics that you want to address.


Here’s another question: Why do you take on these arguments without seeking some resolution? You’ve given your opinion about CWB premiums but don’t back any of it with facts (like the ones I show above). When pressed for reasons for your position you change the channel and try to bring up other items that seem to support your ideology but also divert attention away from the argument at hand.

If you’re trying to change people’s minds, you’re not doing it because your arguments have no substance in fact and you don’t follow through on an argument. All you end up with is an argument. Nobody wins; everybody loses.

Perhaps that’s what you want.

[chuckChuck]

Jdepape "The CWB reported its cost to market wheat in 08-09 was $10.14/tonne. (Not handling, not freight.)
The CWB reported its “premiums” on wheat in 08-09 was $6.65/tonne.

This represents a loss of $3.49/tonne on every tonne marketed, or $55.6 million on the wheat pool."

Where did the quoted premium of $6.65 specifically come from? I think you are misinterpreting the results. I think the premium number ( if it is accurate) was calculated after administration and marketing costs.

What do CWB reps say about your loss estimate? And what are the results from other years?

A while back I showed quite clearly that the CWB pooled return for durum in 2007/2009 was much higher than average weighted price received by US farmers. Why? How could this happen if the CWB is such a bad marketer?

Also why not look at the costs and profit margins in the open market to compare performance? How are farmers to make informed decisions if they can't see how the open market performs? Why don't you advocate for that John?

A few years ago when the lentil market was crappy, your colleague in grain marketing and consulting (Marlene Boersch) provided evidence that Canadian pulse exporters were undercutting each other in the international marketplace just to get handling /processing fees and market share in an over built industry. What are your thoughts on that John?

[bucket]

Chuckles

The lentil market corrected itself with a market signal that told farmers not to grow them. Unlike the cwb, that sent market signals in february 09 durum PRO to grow the stuff and left farmers with the bill.

Where is your knowledge as to the workings of canpotex?

[chuckChuck]

So Bucket who paid the bill for the poor prices for lentils in that time period?

And why would anyone finalize their durum planting intentions on a February PRO?

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

You said:

"Also why not look at the costs and profit margins in the open market to compare performance? How are farmers to make informed decisions if they can't see how the open market performs? Why don't you advocate for that John?"

We have.
Ontario.
Montana.
The whole rest of this planet... OUTSIDE the CWB 'designated area' has the open market.

These global wheat growers CAN both grow and supply quality at least as good as growers inside the 'designated area' especially this year... if the returns actually were better than they are getting right now.!

There is absolutely no restrictions upon the varieties and genetic material that creates our 'designated area' wheat quality.

This isn't the first year Japan is paying more for DNS than CWRS. Why?

Marketing and supply.

The US gets $12/bu for 1DNS14. We are paid $9. There is a very SMALL supply of 1CWRS13.5... why isn't it worth $12?

[TOM4CWB]

Chuchchuck,

"And why would anyone finalize their durum planting intentions on a February PRO."

What other market signal are we supposed to use? A halo around the sun? The Moon? Fog or hoarfrost?

US growers can lock in a price. A GOOD PRICE! While we were being paid $3.25 they were getting $5. And they are still getting over $1.50 more today! For DURUM!

[TOM4CWB]

Chuckchuck,

Sorry... I admit it... I am just an ignorant farmer.
I will restate what I said... I don't want and audit...

As evidence clearly indicates a LARGE missing 'factor' when I get paid for Board grains;

What are the intangible benefits the CWB provides us that I have missed?

1. No income tax to pay?

2. Not worrying about changing equipment to that NEW Combine and Tractor... cause we can't afford them?

3. Paying you and CWB folks stress bonus packages?

[jdepape]

chuckChuck:

Remember – one thing at a time. Let’s make sure we don’t get scattered.

The $6.65 premium is exactly as reported by the CWB in its Annual Report – no misrepresentation as you suggest.

The “premiums” reported by the CWB have been reported in the Annual Reports since 05-06. They are defined as follows:
“Net per-tonne price spread realized by the CWB compared to competitors’ values”. They are not “calculated after administration and marketing costs” as you think.

The “premiums” over the last four years reported in wheat are:
05-06 (page 40) 8.66
06-07 (page 45) 6.00
07-08 (page 45) 13.81
08-09 (page 45) 6.65

On durum, the “premiums” reported are:
05-06 (page 40) 5.98
06-07 (page 45) 7.77
07-08 (page 45) 48.84
08-09 (page 45) 15.37

The CWB costs are reported in the Federal Grain Monitor Data Tables (2008-09) on page 5A-10B.

When you combine the “premiums” and the “CWB costs”, the weighted average result is a loss of $1.16/tonne on wheat and $8.86/tonne on durum.
<b>On a net basis, your “premiums” are negative.
The total dollar amount of both wheat and durum over the last four years is a reduction in revenue of $208,867,657.</b>

Will you accept this now?

Assuming you accept this, I’ll venture into another topic you’ve thrown out.
Since you still want to talk about comparing to US weighted average prices, this needs to be said:
1. The USDA data includes all grades delivered and sold. Comparing it to a single Canadian grade will mislead you.
2. The USDA data only includes spot sales; it does not include sales made on deferred delivery contracts. Many US farmers pre-sell up to half their crop after seeding but before harvest – and do very well by it. IF you could include these sales in your weightings, the weighted average price over the years would go up substantially.


By the way, have you ever driven a BMW? The way they drive is one reason people buy them. Quality and workmanship too. Another is snob appeal. The premium people pay for them has nothing to do with the dealer.

[bucket]

chuckles

In feb 09 the american farmer was locking in prices for fall delivery for 7.00usd a bushel.

The cwb continued to lower the PRO in the months following, so the prices would match their incompetent sales. Meanwhile the american farmer delivered in september ALL of his contract for the feb 09 price. Western canadian farmers could deliver only what the cwb accepted and are still waiting for payment.

If you had a lentil contract it would be delivered. You would be paid for what you contracted and delivered. Quite different from the cwb. If a farmer wanted to deliver 8cent lentil someone would have bought them.

If you wanted to deliver to the cwb you were paying a fine over THEIR acceptance levels.

You just don't get it, do you?

[bucket]

chuckles

What PRO do you use to seed a crop - September's?

The PRO stayed up until it was too late to change seeding plans.

Are you saying the PRO's are useless as well? Turning anticwb are you?

The PROs have no place in marketing as they have no contractual obligations. The cwb can say whatever they want with PRO's and not one farmer can tie a contract to it.

[bucket]

Chuckchuck/forestgump

Would you like to explain canpotex for us or are you still eating that box of chocolates?

[chuckChuck]

Jdepape,
I will get back to you with my response on CWB premiums vs costs.

But you didn't answer all my questions.

What advantage does the higher domestic usage give to American farmers and their prices?

Also why not look at the costs and profit margins in the open market to compare performance? How are farmers to make informed decisions if they can't see how the open market performs?

A few years ago when the lentil market was crappy, your colleague in grain marketing and consulting (Marlene Boersch) provided evidence that Canadian pulse exporters were undercutting each other in the international marketplace just to get handling /processing fees and market share in an over built industry.

What are your thoughts on that John?

Why is the open market not always working efficiently for special crops?

Doesn't matter whether it is Ford or BMW. Ford doesn't have a monopoly on trucks either but we know that trucks and suvs were a huge profit maker for them. Is Ford better than GM or Toyota? I guess that depends on who you are talking to.